Skip to main content
Log in

Diversification limit of quantiles under dependence uncertainty

  • Published:
Extremes Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the portfolio diversification ratio based on Value-at-Risk (quantile) under dependence uncertainty, which we refer to as “worst-case diversification limit”. We show that the worst-case diversification limit is equal to the upper limit of the worst-case diversification ratio under mild conditions on the portfolio marginal distributions. In the case of regularly varying margins, we provide explicit values for the worst-case diversification limit. Under the framework of dependence uncertainty the worst-case diversification limit is significantly higher compared to classic results obtained in the literature of multivariate regularly varying distributions. The results carried out in this paper bring together extreme value theory and dependence uncertainty, two popular topics in the recent study of risk aggregation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.-M., Heath, D.: Coherent measures of risk. Math. Finance 9(3), 203–228 (1999)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Balkema, A.A., de Haan, L.: Residual life time at great age. Ann. Probab. 2, 792–804 (1974)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Barbe, P., Fougéres, A., Genest, C.: On the tail behavior of sums of dependent risks. Astin. Bull. 36, 361–373 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • BCBS: Studies on credit risk concentration: an overview of the issues and a synopsis of the results from the research task force project. BCBS Working Paper No 15. Bank for International Settlements, Basel (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  • BCBS: Consultative document May 2012 fundamental review of the trading book basel committee on banking supervision. Bank for international Settlements, Basel (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • BCBS: Consultative document October 2013 fundamental review of the trading book: a revised market risk framework basel committee on banking supervision. Bank for international Settlements, Basel (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernard, C., Jiang, X., Wang, R.: Risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty. Insurance Math. Econom. 54, 93–108 (2014)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Bignozzi, V., Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L.: Reducing model risk via positive and negative dependence assumptions. Insurance Math. Econom. 61, 17–26 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Bingham, N.H., Goldie, C.M., Teugels, J.L.: Regular variation. Cambridge University Press (1989)

  • Chen, D., Mao, T., Pan, X., Hu, T.: Extreme value behavior of aggregate dependent risks. Insurance Math. Econom. 50(1), 99–108 (2012)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • de Haan, L., Ferreira, A.: Extreme value theory: an introduction. Springer (2006)

  • Degen, M., Lambrigger, D. D., Segers, J.: Risk concentration and diversification: second-order properties. Insurance Math. Econom. 46(3), 541–546 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Höing, A., Juri, A.: Using copulae to bound the Value-at-Risk for functions of dependent risks. Finance Stoch. 7(2), 145–167 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Lambrigger, D., Wüthrich, M.: Multivariate extremes and the aggregation of dependent risks: examples and counter-examples. Extremes 12(2), 107–127 (2009a)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Nešlehová, J., Wüthrich, M.: Additivity properties for Value-at-Risk under Archimedean dependence and heavy-tailedness. Insurance Math. Econom. 44(2), 164–169 (2009b)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L.: Model uncertainty and VaR aggregation. J. Bank. Financ. 37(8), 2750–2764 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L., Wang, R., Beleraj, A.: An academic response to Basel 3.5. Risks 2(1), 25–48 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Wang, B., Wang, R.: Aggregation-robustness and model uncertainty of regulatory risk measures. Finance Stoch. 19(4), 763–790 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Emmer, S., Kratz, M., Tasche, D.: What is the best risk measure in practice? a comparison of standard measures. J. Risk 18(2), 31–60 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Föllmer, H., Schied, A.: Stochastic finance: an introduction in discrete time, 3rd Edn. Walter de Gruyter (2011)

  • Gnedenko, B.V.: Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum dúne serie aleatoire. Ann. Math. 44, 423–453 (1943)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Jakobsons, E., Han, X., Wang, R.: General convex order on risk aggregation. Forthcoming in Scand. Actuar. J. (2016). doi:10.1080/03461238.2015.1012223

  • Joe, H.: Multivariate models and multivariate dependence concepts. CRC Press (1997)

  • Kaas, R., Laeven, R., Nelsen, R.: Worst VaR sce- narios with given marginals and measures of association. Insurance Math. Econ. 44, 146–158 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Kortschak, D., Albrecher, H.: Asymptotic results for the sum of dependent non-identically distributed random variables. Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 11 (3), 279–306 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Makarov, G.D.: Estimates for the distribution function of a sum of two random variables when the marginal distributions are fixed. Theory Probab. Appl. 26(4), 803–806 (1981)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Mao, T., Hu, T.: Second-order properties of risk concentrations without the condition of asymptotic smoothness. Extremes 16(4), 383–405 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Mao, T., Ng, K.W.: Second-order properties of tail probabilities of sums and randomly weighted sums. Extremes 18(3), 403–435 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • McNeil, A., Frey, R., Embrechts, P.: Quantitative risk management: concepts, techniques and tools. Princeton University Press, Revised version (2015)

  • Rüschendorf, L.: Random variables with maximum sums. Adv. Appl. Prob. 14, 623–632 (1982)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Rüschendorf, L.: Emmathematical risk analysis: dependence, risk bounds, optimal allocations and portfolios. Springer (2013)

  • Teugels, J.L.: The class of subexponential distributions. Ann. Probab. 3(6), 1000–1011 (1975)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, B., Wang, R.: The complete mixability and convex minimization problems with monotone marginal densities. J. Multivariate Anal. 102(10), 1344–1360 (2011)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, R., Peng, L., Yang, J.: Bounds for the sum of dependent risks and worst Value-at-Risk with monotone marginal densities. Finance Stoch. 17(2), 395–417 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tiantian Mao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bignozzi, V., Mao, T., Wang, B. et al. Diversification limit of quantiles under dependence uncertainty. Extremes 19, 143–170 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-016-0245-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-016-0245-5

Keywords

Mathematics Subject Classfication (2010)

Navigation