1 Introduction

Climate change presents a severe challenge to the arid and semi-arid areas, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and threatening the sustainability of value chains dependent on these regions (Chikuta et al., 2024). Shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures disrupt water availability and agricultural productivity, posing significant risks to livelihoods and food security (Godde et al., 2021). Consequently, food production becomes more unpredictable, undermining efforts to ensure a stable and sufficient food supply (Kabubo et al. 2018). These climatic shifts also disrupt livestock rearing, a key livelihood in these regions (Lugusa et al. 2016), further threatening food security. As the impacts of climate change intensify, building climate-resilient value chains becomes essential to sustain food security.

In this context, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) play a pivotal role in addressing climate change impacts, offering a framework for coordinated action to enhance resilience and promote sustainable development (Behera et al., 2023). SDG 13, focused on climate action, underscores the importance of global efforts to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015). By prioritizing investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable land management practices, and renewable energy solutions, SDG 13 aims to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and build adaptive capacity in vulnerable communities. SDG 15 (life on land) emphasizes the conservation and sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems, including rangelands and agro-ecological zones, which are critical for supporting nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid areas. By promoting sustainable land use practices, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem restoration, SDG 15 aims to safeguard the integrity of natural resources and enhance the resilience of value chains dependent on these ecosystems.

In addressing the impacts of climate change on nature-based value chains, SDGs offer a comprehensive framework for sustainable adaptation. Climate change will have far-reaching consequences for the rangeland ecosystem and biodiversity, as well as for socioeconomic and linked sectors such as water resources, livestock, crops, and food security (Kalele et al., 2021). Rainfall pattern changes are anticipated to cause severe water shortages and/or flooding (Nyika, 2022). Rising temperatures will cause agricultural growing seasons to shift, affecting food security, as well as changes in pest and disease vector distribution, putting more people at risk (Muema et al., 2018). Temperature increases have the potential to significantly accelerate the extinction of many preferred plant species and their habitats (Ndiritu et al., 2021). This has the potential to disrupt most value chains, making pastoralists more vulnerable (Kirui et al. 2022).

This study therefore, seeks to investigate the relationship between climate change impacts and nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid areas. Specifically, it aims to explore how climate change affects the resilience and sustainability of value chains dependent on these regions, considering factors such as water scarcity, shifts in rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Despite the growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation in these areas, there remains a gap in empirical research linking climate change impacts to value chain dynamics. While some studies have examined the effects of climate change on value chains in developing countries, most of the empirical research in Kenya has focused on high potential areas with stable and predictable climatic condition (Omondi et al., 2023; Murimi et al. 2024 and Awandu et al., 2024), with limited attention given to arid and semi-arid areas characterized by erratic, unreliable and seasonal weather patterns. Consequently, the viability of the primary value chains in arid and semi-arid regions remains poorly understood. This study seeks to address this gap by examining the specific challenges faced by nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid regions and assessing the implications for human development in these areas. Key questions explored include: How do climate change impacts, such as water scarcity and temperature fluctuations, affect the resilience and productivity of value chains in arid and semi-arid areas? Do other macroeconomic variables, such as financial investments, access to market and climate information, influence the adaptive capacity of value chains to climate change? By contributing to the literature on climate change impacts on nature-based value chains, this study provides insights that can inform policy and decision-making processes, highlighting the importance of prioritizing climate adaptation strategies to safeguard development in these vulnerable regions.

Climate change adaptation will necessitate modifications and changes at every level of the value chain. To cope with current and future climate stress, communities in arid and semi-arid areas must strengthen their resilience (Ndiritu, 2021) by adopting appropriate technologies and climate-proof value chains (Thongoh-muia, 2022), leveraging traditional knowledge (Apraku et al., 2021), and diversifying their livelihoods. Local coping techniques and traditional knowledge must work in tandem with government and community actions. The selection of adaptation measures relies on how vulnerable the effects of climate change are. In the context of community-based action, national and sectoral planning, as well as disaster risk reduction, adaptation solutions must be matched to priority needs. To promote sustainable development and the effective use of resources for adaptation, adaptation plans must be incorporated into both top-down and bottom-up planning methodologies (Omolo & Mafongoya, 2019).

Mechanisms for validating adaptation choices should be introduced to avoid maladaptation (Singh et al., 2022). Adaptation for value chain players may entail monitoring both the context in terms of climate hazards and the performance of value chain operations, and then adapting or acting in reaction to what is observed as well as past experiences (Thongoh et al., 2021). Diversification of activities, goods, and income sources; protection of essential assets from climatic threats; and improved efficiency in resource management for value chain activities are examples of initiatives that may be performed.

A value chain is defined as the entire set of activities required to bring a product or service from conception to final disposal after use, including physical transformation and the input of various producer services (Fanzo et al., 2017; Farmery et al., 2021). For rangeland value chains, it encompasses all rangeland actors involved from production to the end user who transact a specific product as it moves through the value chain, including input, farmers, traders, processors, transporters, wholesalers, retailers, and final consumers. As a result, assessing climate risk for value chains is a critical stage in any climate change adaptation process. Understanding current and future climate risks, considering the consequences for value chain activities, and examining potential solutions for mitigating negative impacts are all part of the process for value chain actors. They can use this information to engage in forward-thinking and flexible planning processes that maximize their business's potential while accounting for climate concerns.

Because of the complexity of some value chains in rangelands, particularly where input and output chains include more than one channel and the channels supply more than one final market, a comprehensive mapping is required that includes descriptions of interacting and competing channels as well as the variety of final markets into which these connect (Omollo et al. 2019). This also involves an understanding of the value chain's operation, which includes a review of essential features such as supporting services, value chain governance, and data overlays (Emali, 2023; Sala, 2019). Supporting services are people or businesses that give value chain players essential services (inputs, capital, know-how, technical support), but who do not own or buy the product as it advances toward the end markets. Data overlays refer to quantitative information such as the number or percentage of actors at each functional level, labor, average land size (for agricultural production), volumes sold, input costs, sales revenue, unit price, and net profit. Value chain governance analysis includes an understanding of the power dynamics used by various types of actors.

These services are crucial in assisting nature-based value chains, particularly in rangelands, which face multiple challenges. Building the capacity of value chain actors and ensuring that they have the information, knowledge, and resources needed to carry out the crucial value chain development activities requires investment in supporting services (Sala, 2019). The ability of service providers to collaborate with value chain actors to ensure that they have the information, knowledge, and resources needed for the development of sustainable value chains that are gender-equitable and inclusive of the most vulnerable people is necessary for communities living in rangelands, and this requires investment in supporting services (Mwangi, 2020).

As a result, timely and efficient service delivery is a crucial enabler for the growth of the value chain in Rangelands. Climate information services, financial services, and market information are some of the most crucial services that support the creation of sustainable value chains in rangelands. All decision-makers, from agro-pastoralists to banks and government agricultural investment programs, depend on climate information services. While early warnings for climate extremes might improve readiness for shocks, past and present climate patterns, future projections, and seasonal weather forecasts all support climate risk assessment (Ngigi & Muange, 2022). Commercial banks and microfinance organizations that provide financial services, such as credit, savings, and insurance, serve as a vital resource for many value chains (Isako & Kimindu, 2019). Finance that is easily accessible helps with planning, diversifying sources of income and activities, and acting as a buffer during times of shock. Additionally, it promotes experimentation and creativity, two essential components of adaptive management.

Value chain actors can diversify their businesses and increase their earnings by using market information systems, which give data on pricing, supply, and demand of various commodities (Roba et al., 2019). Market data may help risk analysis and guide decisions on value chain activities, such as input purchases, which commodities to invest in, and when to hold a reserve of a certain product (Erick, 2022). This is especially true when combined with climate data. This makes it possible to buy and sell goods quickly and effectively, even under pressure. If investments in value chain development are to have a lasting impact on reducing poverty and boosting food security, climate resilience must be a priority outcome given the nonequilibrium nature of tropical rangelands, whose productivity is primarily determined by stochastic abiotic factors. All participants in the chain must therefore be informed of climate hazards and given the authority to continuously manage these risks.

The interplay of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of pastoral communities and environmental systems accentuates the risks of climate-related consequences (Ndiritu, 2021). The study examined the potential climate change risks that may affect rangelands, as well as how value chains are exposed to the dangers and their vulnerability in four arid and semi-arid counties of Kenya. The objective was to assess climate risks across various value chains and identify adaptation interventions necessary to enhance resilience. This involved focusing on both current and future climate risks, analyzing their implications for value chain activities, and evaluating different strategies to mitigate negative impacts. In this study, hazards were defined as climate-related physical events or trends that impacted value chains (IPCC, 2014). Exposure referred to the parts of the value chain that could be harmed, whereas vulnerability included agro-pastoralists' ability to cope with and adapt to changes. By examining climate change risks and vulnerability within value chains, stakeholders can develop targeted adaptation strategies to enhance resilience and ensure the sustainable development of arid and semi-arid regions.

2 Methodology

2.1 Study sites

Climate risks and adaptation options were assessed along nature-based value chains in the arid and semi-arid counties of Narok, Turkana, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet (Fig. 1). Across the counties, the predominant economic activity is extensive livestock production (pastoralism) and, in some cases, agro-pastoralism, which is characterized by livestock rearing and crop cultivation, particularly where there are stable sources of water.

Fig. 1
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The study area

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Another economic activity done by pastoralists in these counties is nature-based tourism and ecotourism. In Narok County, for example, the neighboring communities are home to most of the wildlife and thus the hub of tourism-related businesses. Most of the tourist hotels and lodges are clustered around the parks. Crop production is combined with pastoralism in mixed crops and in settled integrated crop/livestock systems. Maize, beans, Irish potatoes, melons, cow peas, and vegetables are the most prevalent food crops grown in the counties. Many pastoralists are combining cattle and crop production, particularly in the counties of Elgeyo Marakwet and parts of West Pokot. Production takes place on small plots of land near water sources. Given the fluctuation of rainfall in most locations, irrigation farming is the primary mode of farming, utilizing water from diverse areas in the rangelands.

2.2 Value chain analysis

The value chain analysis for resilience in drylands, also known as VC-ARID methodology, was used for the mapping of climate risks along the value chains and the identification of adaptation options. IFAD (2015) proposed a five-step approach (Fig. 2) for assessing the risk of climate change in value chains. By combining more conventional sectoral analysis with an understanding of the distinctive characteristics and vulnerabilities of the various counties, VC-ARID offers a territorial approach to value chain analysis. The VC-ARID approach acknowledges that, as compared to other production systems, ecological and socioeconomic variability in semi-arid lands constitute major structural distinctions.

Fig. 2
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(Adapted from IFAD, 2015)

The value chain analysis approach used

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The initial step required choosing the value chains, which was done participatorily with a wide range of community actors and the members of the ward development and planning committees using focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and semi-structured interviews (wards are local administrative entities in Kenya). The value chains were chosen based on their suitability for the local climate and their contribution to the livelihoods and general well-being of the community. This was further supported by a review of published literature on the impacts of climate change and potential solutions in Kenya's arid and semi-arid regions. The primary value chain elements discussed included the main activities of the value chains, the key actors responsible for implementing them, how the product or service reached end markets, and the marketing channels available to do so.

The second stage involved the analysis of historical trends in rainfall and temperature in the counties between the years 1981 and 2021, as well as the probable rainfall and temperature based on the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) adopted by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Three RCPs that describe possible climate futures (scenarios) were used in this study. The three RCPs used were 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The climate RCP scenarios were used to project the possible effect of climate change on the value chains and the populations in the counties. The study used daily Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall and the European Centre for medium range weather forecast Re-Analysis (ERA5) minimum and maximum temperature datasets from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Climate Explorer portal (https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi). The datasets were at a horizontal resolution of 0.25° (25 km × 25 km) and for the period between 1981 and 2021. The daily datasets were then converted into a monthly time series for analysis. As an important pre-requisite, the datasets were validated using observed daily rainfall and temperature data.

The study also utilized daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature outputs from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) website (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/esgf-llnl/). The Max-Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) and the Irish Centre for High-End Computing Model (ICHEC-EC-EARTH) were used to downscale rainfall and temperature data over Africa at a horizontal resolution of 0.44° (50 km × 50 km) for the period 1981 to 2050, following three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. As a preliminary condition, the downscaled model outputs were bias corrected using linear scaling method before any climate change analysis was done.

To understand climate risk at each stage of the value chain across the counties, a qualitative survey was conducted with 539 producer households, traders, processors, and key specialists. Information on household characteristics, land ownership, service access, and perceptions of climate threats were all included in the survey. This was also supported by a qualitative analysis of how the value chain actors across the entire range of actors identified in the first stage. The qualitative survey involved a set of Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) on perceived changes in climate over the past ten years, how these changes had affected their production or business, and what measures had been put in place to cope with these changes. The climate risk analysis was evaluated at each stage of the value chain. The study also evaluated the interaction of climate risks with other shocks at the household level, such as conflict, diseases, and idiosyncratic shocks, allowing for the development of adaptation strategies for a more robust value chain. Aside from long-term climate change and variability, the assessment considered the seasonality of weather patterns that disrupt supply chains due to the ecological effects of intra-annual weather patterns.

The third stage involved identifying climate investment choices and adaptation measures based on the primary climate concerns outlined in the second stage’s forecasted climate scenarios. The identification of adaptation choices necessitated a grasp of the local environment, therefore participatory methods such as focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field visits were used to select the necessary actions. Through participatory scenario analysis, the social, economic, and environmental implications of several adaptation alternatives were determined using participatory methodologies.

A participatory evaluation of the various alternatives was made possible using scenario analysis, which also helped to better grasp the complexity of and discuss planning options for sustainable rangeland management. The scenario analysis gave information about potential and desired futures. Local communities naturally use, value, and influence the environment in which they live, they were therefore fully involved in scenario analysis as they are the ones who eventually put ideas into practice, resolve conflicts, or choose amongst transformative adaptation solutions. Community participation ensured that existing values, experiences, and diverse types of knowledge in the study areas were more included and integrated. Local expert knowledge and experiences increased the quality of decision-making information, enhancing the credibility and legitimacy of adaptation choices that address climate risk and have the potential to upgrade and alter value chains. Participants included representatives from national and county governments, the commercial sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and civil society organizations. This knowledge was applied to the development of climate-resilient economic transformation and diversification alternatives in pastoral value chains.

The fourth stage involved determining the community’s vulnerability, which helped to prioritize the adaptation activities required to increase the community's resilience to the effects of climate change. Prioritizing a top set of climate hazards based on the community's susceptibility was essential because it is impossible to integrate all solutions in a single project. Communities encounter a variety of challenges; thus, it was necessary to rank the interventions together. The rating was done to ensure there would be a coordinated effort to better the situation of pastoralists, their livestock, land, and resource base. This is due to the inherent interconnectedness of pastoralism’s challenges, which call for comprehensive approaches to the state and condition of rangelands rather than solitary efforts centered on the health of the rangeland, crops and livestock, or people individually. Therefore, measures that include rangeland, crops, and livestock are more effective and efficient than those that focus solely on one area. Implementing connected land-crop/livestock management measures based on efforts to improve rangeland condition and productivity was the aim of integration at this stage. This was done to make sure that the alternatives for adaptation in one area would not make other sectors more vulnerable.

In the last stage, prospects for scaling up the interventions were found, as well as potential channels for private sector participation in the beneficiation of rangeland products coming from various value chains identified in stage one. This gave communities the chance to identify their capacity needs and ways to meet them, ensuring that they can run their own activities that would increase their resilience and act on local concerns. All actors in the chain carry out interdependent tasks linked to climate risk assessment, adaptive management of value chain activities, and response to create climate-resilient value chains. As a result, the following conceptual framework was utilized to examine the connected functions of climate resilience and value chain functionality to fully analyze the climate risks along the value chains, as shown in Fig. 3.

Fig. 3
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Conceptual framework used for value chain mapping

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3 Results

3.1 Biographical characteristics

Figure 4 shows the gender and education characteristics for households sampled in the four counties of Turkana, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet and Narok.

Fig. 4
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Households’ gender and education characteristics

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As shown in Fig. 4, most households (80.6%) were headed by men, with only a few (19.4%) headed by women. This does not, however, imply that fewer women are involved in the development of the value chain. Women frequently play essential but invisible roles in value chains, and hence play an important part in upgrading value chain development methods. According to the women who participated in the focus group discussions, men are frequently regarded as the official decision-makers in their society, with power and control over how natural resources are managed. According to the findings, most household heads have basic primary education which according to the key informants interviewed, is vital for the management and functioning of the various aspects and processes useful for the development of the value chain. Education exposes one to technical skills and knowledge, which raises awareness and promotes value chain development. Lack of tenure is likely to make people reluctant to invest in land which they do not formally own. As shown in Fig. 5, most of the land in the counties of Turkana (95.5%) and Narok (79.6%) was communally used, whereas 97.1% of the land in Elgeyo Marakwet and 68% in West Pokot was privately owned. Turkana (4.5%) and Elgeyo Marakwet (2.9%) had the least number of households with private land. Key informants stated that when land ownership and use rights are complicated, it may be difficult to persuade one to enhance land that someone else may use later, such as communally owned land. Despite the irregular nature of weather conditions in the rangelands, it was said in focus group discussions that collective use of the rangeland makes it simpler for communities to cope with the spatial temporal unpredictability of resources.

Fig. 5
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Land tenure and Market access characteristics

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According to the findings in Fig. 5, most households marketed their farm produce mostly through middlemen (28.5%), at the farmgate (25.8%), and at the local market (24.4%). Within the four counties, cooperative marketing of farm produce was relatively modest. The main source of income identified across the counties (Table 1) are from the sale of live livestock (54.4%), livestock products (50.6%), subsistence crop farming (38.9%), and to some extent, trading in urban and peri-urban centers (17.6%). Native pastoralists were increasingly getting involved in milk, meat, eggs, hides, and skins, goats, camels, cattle, and poultry trade (50.6%). Agro-pastoral populations mainly generate income from crop farming (maize, bean, tomato, green gram, cowpea, onion, and kale) across the counties, where rainfall can support crop production, and under irrigation along various rivers. The four counties' sources of income can be divided into four groups based on the KIIs and FGDs: pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, crop farming, and non-agro-pastoral livelihoods (which include small businesses, the trade in firewood and charcoal, among other things). Some households had diversified their sources of income and while others had more than one source of livelihood, although the findings demonstrate that the categories are not mutually exclusive. In addition to agriculture, the main non-agro-pastoral activities listed were formal employment (17%) and casual labor (22.9%).

Table 1 Sources of income
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The most common threats influencing communities' adaptation capacity, according to Table 2, are poor market systems (65.3%), diseases and pests (56.5%), land use changes and land degradation (46.9%), intra-and inter-community disputes (43.2%), and weak governance systems (37.5%). These factors have a severe impact on the pastoral economy by reducing crop yield, decreasing animal productivity, and increasing livestock mortality, resulting in financial loss for farmers, hunger, and starvation. The focus group discussions highlighted that landscapes were undergoing huge transformations because of population increase, urbanization, land privatization, and fragmentation, which had significant consequences for communities' ability to respond to climate change. There was significant property subdivision, which resulted in rangeland fragmentation, poor land-use practices, and severe land-use management issues. The focus discussions also revealed that charcoal production for commercial purposes had resulted in unsustainable harvesting of trees and shrubs in conservation zones, resulting in rangeland damage. Weak traditional governance structures were also identified as a threat to the lives of rangeland populations.

Table 2 Livelihood risks
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The management of rangelands heavily relies on traditional customary institutions. However, the focus group discussions revealed that most of the traditional institutions were inefficient and ineffective at managing rangelands. These organizations' dissolution has resulted in ineffective management of natural resources, a loss of traditionalism, and a lack of motivation to uphold traditional standards. The contemporary official institutions that are currently in place, such as county governments, were also said to be improperly connected to the local population and to have never collaborated with the traditional customary institutions and systems that control local rangelands. The management of the wards was primarily under their control and took a distinct management model since the county governments had established ward development committees to support the management of resources at the ward levels (wards are local administrative entities in Kenya). Discussions with the key informants showed that such a complex governance system requires elaborate implementation and careful enforcement of the regulations to sustainably benefit from land resources. Lack of coordination, which is the case leads to unsustainable extraction of the resources as was seen with the unsustainable charcoal burning in all the counties.

The market systems for different rangeland products were relatively poor. Focus group discussions with community respondents revealed that markets for different value chain products are uncompetitive and have significant inefficiencies because of a number of systemic constraints, including inconsistent and erratic product supply, an unstructured market system with many intermediaries and high transaction costs, information asymmetry, and insufficient and in some cases the absence of key support systems such as financing services, extension services and input availability. The key informants also noted that a barrier to the development of the value chain in arid and semi-arid areas was the absence of private sector participation. Proper marketing of various rangeland products was hampered by the lack of a private sector, inadequate vertical linkages, poorly established interior market infrastructure and associated governance mechanisms, and poor organizational ability among the producers.

3.2 Climate change hazards and their impacts

The findings in Fig. 6 show that drought (82.8%) and floods (67.6%) are the main challenges facing pastoral communities in the study counties. However, in Elgeyo Marakwet (66.5%) and West Pokot (50.1%) counties, landslides were reported to occur whenever there was heavy downpour, attributed to deforestation and unsustainable farming on fragile mountains and hanging valleys. Water shortages (85.4%), pasture scarcity (79.6%), spread of invasive species (53.8%), pests and diseases (67.8%), decreased productivity of crops/livestock/trees (69.5%), and intermittent conflicts (64.9%) were the main impacts of climate change. Droughts now happen every one to two years, as opposed to the 1980s, when they happened every ten years, according to focus group discussions held with local elders. Discussants in the focus groups also claimed that the present droughts were more severe and continued longer. Floods were a threat as well because of the rangelands’ weak soils, which had low aggregate stability and caused most of the rainwater received to drain off as surface runoff. Both floods and droughts, according to the respondents in the KIIs and FGDs, caused significant population displacement, increased competition, and resource-based conflicts when communities relocated out of their homeland areas and into other regions governed by other pastoral groups. As production systems fail, severe droughts and floods have a negative impact on the range of possibilities and the livelihoods equation. According to the FGDs, the flooding prevented fields from being cultivated, wiped out livestock grazing areas, eliminated agribusiness prospects, and destroyed irrigation infrastructure, disrupting markets and the structure of the entire value chain.

Fig. 6
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Climatic change hazards and their impacts

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On the other hand, key informants interviewed ascribed the widespread landslides on deforestation and irresponsible farming on vulnerable hillsides and hanging valleys. The KIIs asserted that forests and trees are essential for soil stabilization, water storage in catchments, and naturally regulating the flow of water downstream. Sadly, the key informants in the region said that extensive deforestation in the study counties was causing an increase in landslides, mudslides, and floods.

Comparatively, Turkana County reported the highest incidences of water scarcity (97.4%), pasture scarcity (96.5%), decreased productivity in crop/livestock/trees (78.3%) and spread of invasive species (77.2%). West Pokot County reported the highest climate-induced conflict cases (75.7%). Narok county reported the highest incidence of pests and diseases (77.8%). Discussions with the community members in all the counties revealed that pastoral communities rely heavily on natural resources and their livestock, and they have developed a way of life that has coped with the impacts of the climate change, including severe droughts. However, frequent extreme climatic events have made it more difficult for them to recover after incidences of climate hazards.

Livestock productivity, which is the main source of livelihood in rangelands was reported by the majority of respondents (69.5%) to have declined significantly. Discussions with key informants further revealed that prolonged periods of droughts and increased temperatures have led to decline in livestock feed intake and reproductive performance, and the overall decline in productivity.

3.3 Mapping of nature-based value chains

Six value chains were selected based on their feasibility under the prevailing climate conditions, their contribution to the livelihoods and well-being of the wider community. As shown in Table 3, Livestock (75.4%) and indigenous poultry (50.1%) value chains were the top two nature-based value chains in the four study counties. Narok county had the highest proportion of respondents involved in fodder production (15.3%) and beadwork (35.5%). The aloe value chain (9.1%) and Gum/resins (10.7%) were relatively high in Turkana County. Elgeyo Marakwet county had the highest proportion of respondents (23.2%) involved in the mango value chain compared to Turkana (2.3%), West Pokot (3.1%), and Narok (5.2%) counties. Generally, Gum/resins (3.3%) and Aloe (4.5%) were emerging nature-based value chains, whose adoption was still low within the counties.

Table 3 Nature-based value chains
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One of the most important services that underpin development of sustainable value chains in the rangeland counties is climate information services, financial services, and market information. The results show that access to climate change information, financial services and market information was generally low in all the counties. Respectively, only 25%, 21% and 32.3% of the respondents were able to access and use climate information, financial services, and market information. Comparatively, Elgeyo Marakwet had the highest proportion (26.5%) of respondents able to access and use climate information. Narok (26.2%) had relatively more respondents accessing financial services. Turkana (27.3%) had the lowest proportion of respondents who receive timely market information (such as market prices, costs, quality, and standards of products).

3.4 Consecutive dry days

Consecutive dry days (CDD) was defined as a sequence of days preceded and followed by a wet day, which were summed up to find the length of dry spell within the two seasons considered (January–June and July–December) for analysis in this study.

Comparatively, Turkana County observed the highest number of CDD both under the baseline period and under the future Representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The mean CDD in all the four counties was projected to increase in both seasons (January–June and July–December) under the three RCPs up to the year 2050. RCP8.5 emission scenario was projected to record the highest increase in CDD in all the four counties (Fig. 7). The July–December season was projected to have higher mean CDD compared to the January–June season in West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, and Narok counties. The projected increase in mean CDD in both seasons signaled increased moisture stress with severe implications on nature-based value chains depending on the physiological stages involved.

Fig. 7
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Consecutive dry days (CDD)

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As depicted in Table 4, the mean annual CDD was projected to increase by between 17 and 25 days in West Pokot, 40 and 47 days in Elgeyo Marakwet County, 6 and 19 days in Turkana County and 5 and 11 days (about 1 and a half weeks) in Narok County. The increase in mean annual CDD exacerbates moisture stress and drought conditions with negative implications on crop, livestock, and poultry value chains.

Table 4 Annual mean consecutive dry days
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3.5 Consecutive wet days

Figure 8 shows the mean seasonal consecutive wet days (CWD) for the January-June and July-December season in Narok, Turkana, West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet both for the reference period (1981–2010) and for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. As shown in Fig. 8, the mean CWD is projected to decrease during the January-June season, signaling decreasing length of wet spells in the season, negatively affecting moisture availability within the season. This will significantly reduce agricultural prospects within the season. The mean CWD within the July–December season is projected to increase in Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet signaling increasing length of wet spells within the season. Increasing length of wet spells present opportunities for agricultural production through increased moisture availability for production thus increasing prospects for agricultural production in Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet counties during the season.

Fig. 8
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Consecutive Wet Days (CWD)

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As shown in Table 5, the mean annual CWD was projected to decrease in all four study counties under the three representative concentration pathways. Narok county had the largest decline in mean annual consecutive wet days of between 29 and 31 days/year, followed by West Pokot County with a projected decrease in mean annual CWD of between 19 and 22 days by the year 2050. Turkana county was projected to record the least decline in the number of consecutive dry days of 2–3 days/year. The projected decline in mean annual consecutive wet days indicates reduced soil moisture availability within the year. This will exacerbate soil moisture stress with negative consequential effects on the quality and quantity of yields, thus reducing prospects for nature-based value chains.

Table 5 Annual mean consecutive wet days
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4 Discussions

Nature-based value chains, which encompass sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and tourism, rely heavily on the availability and sustainability of natural resources. However, climate change poses numerous challenges to these value chains, threatening livelihoods, food security, and economic development in arid and semi-arid areas (Carabine & Simonet, 2017). Arid and semi-arid areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their already limited water resources, fragile ecosystems, and high dependence on natural resources for livelihoods and economic activities (Gannon et al., 2020). The findings of this study demonstrate that the risks of climate change are highly context-specific and depend on the value chain. They are also expected to be higher in nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid regions that have limited socioeconomic and institutional resources for adaptation, necessitating the need for appropriate services.

There are still many questions about how climate change will affect nature-based value chains and how humans and other living organisms will be affected by it and how they will react. The reliability, abundance, and quality of forage, the need for water for agricultural production, as well as large-scale rangeland vegetation patterns, could all be impacted by climate change (Escarcha et al., 2018). The most obvious impact of climate change is on species richness and abundance, which also impacts animals and crops (Rojas-Downing et al. 2017). The loss of biodiversity in pastoral communities is causing more alarm than ever (Machan et al., 2022).

The lack of vegetation cover has accelerated soil erosion, adversely affecting the growth of both crops and livestock (Thornton & Gerber, 2010). In the review of evidence of the impact of climate change on livestock food supply chain, Godde et al. (2021) found that climate change brings rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events which directly impact agricultural activities and food production in arid and semi-arid areas. Droughts, heatwaves, and unpredictable rainfall patterns reduce crop yields, degrade soil fertility, and increase water stress (Kalele et al., 2021). Farmers and pastoralists, therefore, face challenges in securing reliable water sources, accessing suitable crops and livestock breeds, and managing pests and diseases hence affecting the productivity of most of the nature-based value chains.

According to the study findings, there are a few obstacles to value chain development, including limited access to information on present and future climate-related risks, uncertainty surrounding climate change projections, limited availability of financial resources for investing in resilient value chains, and insufficient policy direction. The results also demonstrate the importance of service providers for the growth of value chains and the importance of their contribution to the establishment of value chains that are climate resilient. According to Apgar et al. (2017), developing the capacity of climate information service providers to produce, adapt, and distribute seasonal weather forecasts and early warnings in a timely and accessible manner for various value chain actors are areas that require additional investment in the ASALs. Ngigi and Muange (2022) recommends that partnerships with research institutions and agricultural extension services can be used to build knowledge on climate-resilient agricultural practices and technologies; and supporting financial service providers to develop new or adjusted products and services along value chains, while also reducing risks to the providers themselves.

Most tropical plants and animals flourish at or near their ideal temperatures and rainfall levels (Mumo et al. 2018). The productivity and sustainability of nature-based value chains, whose development relies heavily on weather patterns, may thus be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. According to the analysis of this study, water stress, which according to Pachauri et al. (2014) has a significant impact on both crop and livestock productivity, will be made worse by the projected increase in mean surface maximum and minimum temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the arid and semi-arid areas. According to Barnabas et al. (2008), increased water stress affects plant growth and development by shortening the plant reproductive stage, decreasing leaf area, and closing stomata to reduce water losses. These effects significantly lower crop (Adhikari et al., 2015) and pasture (Thornton et al., 2007) yields. In the arid and semi-arid regions, increased water and heat stress will shorten the growing season, worsen the spread of weeds, pests, and pathogens, and make some areas unsuitable for agricultural production (Conway, 2009; Adhikari et al., 2015). These effects will have a negative impact on plant growth, productivity, and yields.

The rangeland ecology, biodiversity, socioeconomic and allied sectors, including water resources, livestock, crops, and food security, will all be significantly impacted by this (Machan et al., 2022). For instance, Munkhtsetseg et al. (2007) discovered that both rainfall and temperature have a strong link with pasture yields in a study on the effects of climate change on pasture yields. The production of fodder was nevertheless accelerated by sufficient rainfall combined with a drop in high temperatures, but rainfall generally had more of an impact on pasture yields than high temperatures. The optimal temperature range for fodder production is between 26 and 30 °C. Fodder output increases between 16.5 and 26 °C (Hauze et al., 2016), with maximal growth occurring at 30 °C. However, the study's results reveal that forecasted temperatures in some arid and semi-arid locations may reach the 30 °C threshold temperature.

It is therefore necessary to manage climate risks by identifying, characterizing, and reducing the susceptibility of natural and human systems to climate change, with a focus on enhancing adaptive capacity along pastoral value chains. To address climate risks and vulnerabilities, it is necessary to move from resilience to adaptation to transformational adaptation, which entails a reduction in the long-term root causes of vulnerability to climate change by diverting systems from unfavorable or unsustainable trajectories through the promotion of climate resilient value chains.

Over the years, communities in arid and semi-arid regions have faced climate hazards (Muema et al., 2018). With the intensity, frequency, and variety of climate hazards rising, it is getting more difficult and this calls for a paradigm shift in the adaptation pathways. The ability of service providers to collaborate with value chain actors and make sure they have the information, knowledge, and resources necessary for the development of sustainable value chains that are gender-equitable and inclusive of the most vulnerable people is what these communities need from investment in supporting services. Timely and efficient service delivery is therefore a crucial enabler for the growth of the value chain in Rangelands. Given that climate hazards and changes are context-specific, strategies for improving value chains' sustainability must be customized to the unique ecological and socioeconomic setting in which the value chain operates. As a result, to create value chains that are climate resilient, each actor along the chain must carry out two interrelated tasks: assessing climate risk and managing the activities that make up the value chain adaptively.

Despite the growing need for quality and safety measures in high-value markets, which force the development of increasingly complex supply chains to manage the flow of goods and information among chain actors, the results of this study show very little private sector participation in the pastoral value chains in these counties. When market imperfections prevent the poor from accessing goods and services, the private sector can play a critical role in bolstering the connections within the supply chain (Allen et al., 2019). Effective public–private sector collaborations are vital for the development of key nature-based value chains in the ASALs (Kidali, et al., 2023).

The private sector's activities in nature-based value chains require appropriate governance and regulation to ensure compliance with environmental and social standards (Gannon et al., 2021). However, weak governance and insufficient regulation that characterize the arid and semi-arid areas result in unsustainable practices, exploitation of resources, and negative impacts on local communities. Effective monitoring, enforcement, and accountability mechanisms are crucial to mitigate these risks. This should be done through a voluntary cooperative agreement in which all parties consent to collaborate or take on a specific task to accomplish a common goal by pooling resources, sharing responsibilities, and utilizing individual competencies for the benefit of value chain actors, primarily the producers. With the emergence of high value products, the private sector has typically played a direct part in the production, marketing, and distribution of both animal and crop products, with a growing and more specialized role for private players. In addition, the characteristics of high value products, such as specialized production, knowledge, and capacity, drive private-sector actors away from smallholders and toward larger farms who can more readily meet the stringent standards and food safety criteria of overseas purchasers.

To maximize the benefits of private sector involvement, it is therefore essential to establish clear governance frameworks, regulations, and standards that promote sustainability and social responsibility (Lugusa, 2020). Transparent and accountable business practices, along with robust monitoring and certification systems, ensure compliance with environmental and social safeguards. Collaboration with local communities, indigenous groups, and other stakeholders is critical to ensure inclusive participation, respect for traditional knowledge, and equitable distribution of benefits.

This study showed various interconnected market inefficiencies and the transaction costs that smallholders in pastoral areas experience when accessing high-value supply chains. Supply chain actors face knowledge asymmetries as well as high transaction costs. Small- and medium-sized producers find it difficult to engage in the expanding markets for a variety of commodities since it can be difficult to ensure that the items, they produce correspond to international standards for food safety and quality (Lutta et al., 2021). Due to knowledge asymmetries, both the producer and the consumer may be uninformed of food safety risks linked to the production inputs they use, as well as issues that may occur during product processing and distribution as it goes through the supply chain (Dibaba, 2017).

As products move through the supply chain, problems may worsen due to poor input quality, improper input use, the growth and movement of microbial diseases, and mycotoxins (Njiru et al., 2021). Most arid and semi-arid areas are characterized by anonymous spot market transactions, indicating a lack of coordination and communication among pastoralists, traders, and consumers. Because of the lack of cooperation and limited infrastructure, market players have little incentive to eliminate microbial diseases, mycotoxins, and pesticide residues. These market failures make it difficult to execute traceability programs for product differentiation or food safety, which is why, despite their immense potential, beef and dairy products, honey, and mangoes from the arid and semi-arid areas studied cannot be exported.

Gender parity in value chain development is a critical aspect of promoting inclusive and sustainable development in pastoral areas. Pastoralism often faces gender disparities in accessing resources, participating in decision-making, and benefiting from value chains. Achieving gender parity in value chain development is not only a matter of social justice but also crucial for maximizing the potential of pastoral economies and ensuring the well-being of communities. According to Kinati and Mulema (2019) gender parity in value chain development can empower women and address gender inequalities.

In the pastoral societies, women play significant roles in livestock management, milk processing, and other value-added activities. However, they often face limited access to productive resources, financial services, and markets, which hinders their economic empowerment (Omolo, & Mafongoya, 2019). This study found that men own and control most productive assets like livestock, with women having little influence on decision-making. Women perform chores like building homes, milking, caring for animals like sheep, goats, and chickens, engaging in small-scale trade, cultivating crops, creating handicrafts, and gathering resources like water, firewood, fodder, wild edibles, and non-timber forest products. By promoting gender parity, women's participation, leadership, and decision-making in value chains can be enhanced, allowing them to contribute their skills and knowledge effectively. Women's involvement in value chains can diversify income sources and enhance household food security (Elias et al., 2023). Women's perspectives and knowledge of local ecosystems and traditional practices are crucial for sustainable resource management and climate change adaptation. By ensuring women's active engagement and access to training and technology, we can enhance the overall resilience and adaptive capacity of pastoral communities (Farnworth et al., 2016).

5 Conclusion

The study underscores the significant adverse impacts of climate change on nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid regions, focusing on rangeland adaptation in Kenya. Utilizing the VC-ARID approach, it reveals that climate change exacerbates risks such as reduced water availability, increased temperature variability, and altered precipitation patterns, all of which threaten the sustainability of these value chains. These climate-induced challenges are compounded by limited access to reliable climate information, inadequate financial resources, and insufficient supportive policies. The study highlights that these factors create a complex web of vulnerabilities that can destabilize value chains, leading to diminished productivity, economic losses, and heightened food insecurity. Consequently, the study stresses the necessity of integrating climate resilience into value chain interventions. This involves designing tailored strategies that consider the unique ecological and socioeconomic contexts of arid and semi-arid regions. Effective adaptation requires active collaboration among government agencies, non-governmental organizations, private sector entities, and local communities. Investment in climate information services is crucial to provide accurate and timely data, enabling value chain actors to make informed decisions. Additionally, research and extension services play a vital role in disseminating knowledge and best practices, thereby enhancing the adaptive capacity of value chain actors. Such focused efforts can build more resilient value chains capable of withstanding the impacts of climate change. This, in turn, can contribute to broader goals of poverty reduction and food security in vulnerable areas. The study calls for a concerted effort to address these challenges through comprehensive and context-specific approaches, ensuring that value chains not only survive but thrive in the face of climate adversity. By adopting such an integrated and collaborative approach, stakeholders can create sustainable pathways for development in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, a comprehensive approach that includes enhanced climate information access, strengthened financial support, supportive policies, robust research, and facilitated collaboration is essential for building climate-resilient value chains in arid and semi-arid regions. This approach can create sustainable and resilient value chains that withstand the impacts of climate change, contributing to poverty reduction and food security in vulnerable areas.

5.1 Policy suggestions

To build climate-resilient value chains in arid and semi-arid regions, a multifaceted approach is essential. Governments and stakeholders must enhance access to climate information through robust services like early warning systems and improved weather forecasting, ensuring well-informed decisions. Strengthening financial support mechanisms is also critical, with targeted financial aid such as climate adaptation funds, low-interest loans, and grants for climate-smart innovations, enabling value chain actors to invest in necessary adaptations and innovations.

Supportive policies and governance are crucial for creating an enabling environment for climate-resilient value chains. Policymakers should develop and implement policies that encourage sustainable land use, effective water management practices, and climate-smart agricultural techniques. Investing in research and extension services is vital for fostering innovation and improving adaptive capacities. Research focused on climate resilience can provide valuable insights, while strengthened extension services ensure that the latest findings and best practices are effectively communicated to value chain actors. Facilitating collaboration and partnerships is an important strategy and hence coordinated efforts among various stakeholders, including government agencies, non-governmental organizations, private sector entities, and local communities, are necessary. Policies should encourage partnerships that promote the sharing of knowledge, resources, and technologies.

Future studies should analyze the effectiveness of existing policies and institutional frameworks in supporting climate-resilient value chains. This can help identify gaps and inform the development of more effective governance structures and policy instruments. Developing more comprehensive and effective strategies to build climate-resilient value chains by addressing these research areas, will ultimately contribute to sustainable development and improved livelihoods in arid and semi-arid regions.