Can China's energy policies achieve the "dual carbon" goal? A multi-dimensional analysis based on policy text tools

Abstract

The continuous increase in global temperatures and frequency of extreme weather events underscore the urgency of achieving "dual carbon" goals. Systematically examining the textual characteristics of energy policies under the "dual carbon" framework, synthesizing the implementation pathways of "dual carbon" initiatives contribute to enhancing comprehension, execution, and optimisation of these policies. This study selecting 409 energy policies under the "dual carbon" goals issued by the central government, the State Council, and ministries from 1992 to 2022 as samples, using policy econometrics and content analysis methods, external characteristics of energy policies including publication time, publication type, and publication subject were analysed. Multidimensional content analysis was conducted for policy tools, objectives, and participants. The implementation path of the "dual carbon" goals was summarised. The study found that China's energy policy under "dual carbon" target has undergone four development stages before and after the release of the energy policy, and energy policy system has been continuously supplemented and improved. Various energy policy tools, diverse policy participants, and policy objectives are of concern and focus. From the "tool-subject-target" perspective, six paths for the implementation of "double carbon" targets in China's energy field are summarised. The energy policy under the "dual carbon" goal has problems such as lack of laws and regulations, over-use of environmental policy tools, uneven distribution in the internal segmentation of policy tools, insufficient involvement of market players and the public, and insufficient attention to the reform of energy systems and mechanisms and the goal of establishing energy-saving and low-carbon concepts.

1 Introduction

Climate change is a major challenge facing humankind today that seriously threatens its survival and sustainable development. Today's climate is so dire that after decades of continuous tracking and systematic assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that human activities, represented by massive fossil energy extraction, are the main cause of global warming. A wealth of available data further supports this view. Fossil fuels, such as oil, gas, and coal, are the energy-consuming products on which current human activities depend and are the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions (Jiang & Yin, 2023). Research by the World Bank shows that in the late 1950s, the average annual increase in carbon dioxide concentrations was 0.2 ppm. From 2005 to 2019, this value increases to 2.2 ppm. This rapid growth is likely to continue, and if unchecked, carbon dioxide concentrations could reach more than twice the current level. Owing to the rapid growth in carbon emissions, the global surface temperature is also increasing and human survival is facing a severe challenge. Therefore, there is an urgent need to optimise the energy structure, reduce carbon emissions, and alleviate climate problems. Countries worldwide have introduced policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Abbasi & Ahmadi Choukolaei, 2023).

China's economic growth is mainly driven by energy consumption (Wang & Jiang, 2019); however, it also introduces problems that cannot be ignored, such as substantial huge energy consumption. China is the world's largest energy consumer, accounting for 23.6% of the global total energy consumption and the unreasonable energy structure (Wen et al., 2021). Coal dependence leads to serious environmental pollution (Kong et al., 2020a, 2020b). As the world's largest developing country, and a major energy consumer and carbon emitter, China is responsible for reducing carbon emissions. To deal with the climate issue, China officially clarified the "dual carbon" goal at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly on 22 September 2020. The concept of "dual carbon," comprising carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, represents a pivotal commitment by the Chinese government. The Chinese leadership has pledged to achieve a carbon dioxide emission peak by 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. This declaration set a clear timetable for the 'dual carbon' initiative and underscored China's resolve and proactive approach in addressing climate change and pursuing a path of sustainable, green development.

On 27 December 2023 the National Development and Reform Commission of China issued a midterm assessment report on the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of the 2035 Vision Goals (hereafter referred to as the Assessment Report). According to the report, in the first half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's progress in reducing energy consumption intensity and carbon emissions intensity lagged expectations. China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are growing significantly faster than during the 13th Five-Year Plan. The report indicated that in the coming period, China's total energy consumption will remain rigid, coal will need to play a backstop role in energy supply, and there is a long way to go to reduce pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions. However, there are still problems to be solved regarding China's energy structure and carbon emissions.

As a guiding document for the construction of the energy field, energy policy plays a leading role in the optimisation of the energy structure and carbon emissions reduction. This involves holistic planning that can guide the energy sector towards achieving these ambitious targets. In China, the active use of policy regulations is an effective means to solve problems in the field of energy (Ma et al., 2010). China's primary, secondary, and tertiary industries must achieve carbon reductions under the guidance of energy policies (Jiang & Yin, 2023). In the face of problems arising during the implementation process, energy policy should be revised and improved accordingly. Therefore, it is important to provide a reference for the formulation and modification of energy policies.

Specifically, through an in-depth discussion of the following issues, this study proposes policy optimisation suggestions to provide guidance for policy implementation and practice:

• (1) What is the policy release trend under the "dual carbon" goal? What are the subjects of policy issuance and what types of cooperative relationships are presented?

• (2) How are policy objectives, tools, and participants used together? What types of structures and correlation features were present?

• (3) What paths do China's energy policy take to achieve its dual carbon goal?

The remainder of this paper is organised as follows: Sect. 2 is a literature review. Section 3 introduces the policy framework and data sources established in this study. Section 4 analyses the external attributes of the energy policy. Section 5 analyses energy policy texts in one and two dimensions. Section 6 makes the three-dimensional path analysis of the policy text. Section 7 is research significance, which is divided into theoretical and practical significance. Section 8 presents the conclusion, highlighting the findings, recommendations, limitations, and future research directions of this study.

2 Literature review

After reviewing the existing literature, it was found that energy policy-related research can be divided into the evolution process and future trends of energy policy, the effectiveness analysis of energy policy in subdivided fields, the structural characteristics and synergy degree of energy policy in subdivided fields, and the elaboration of policy recommendations in specific fields based on system and policy research.

2.1 Evolution and trend of energy policy

First, the evolution and future trends of energy policies were studied. The development trend of energy policies in countries worldwide has its own characteristics; however, there are also many common points, such as emphasising multiple sources of energy, emphasising the reduction of dependence on fossil energy (Bashir et al., 2024), and the vigorous development of new energy sources, such as solar (Kong et al., 2020a, 2020b), wind (Corrêa et al., 2022), wave (Qi et al., 2023), and geothermal energy (Chandrasekharam et al., 2016). An increasing number of countries, such as the United States, China, Canada, Germany, and India, have provided policy support for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of global climate change (Zheng et al., 2023). China's energy policy has undergone three stages: from self-sufficiency to diversification and complementarity, and then to economy and efficiency (Wang et al., 2012). From a historical perspective, each Five-Year Plan in China has had a clearly defined strategic positioning for energy, progressing from "optimizing the development of the energy industry" in the 11th Five-Year Plan to "promoting the transformation of energy development and application" in the 12th Five-Year Plan, and ultimately aiming for "building a modern energy system" in the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans. China's top-level design is increasingly precise and specific in its pursuit of transforming the energy structure and planning its path forward (Tang et al., 2023). In recent years, China's energy policy has increasingly prioritised energy security, the integrated development of various energy sources, the accelerated expansion of natural gas, and the digitalisation of energy information in response to a confluence of non-traditional factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, significant fluctuations in international energy prices, global efforts to address climate change, and the shift towards green and low-carbon transition (Guo et al., 2024). Specific to the subdivided energy field, China's rural energy policy since 1979 can be roughly divided into three stages: the transition period, from the planned economy to the market economy (1979–1996), the development of the dynamic market economy system (1997–2006), and the improvement of the market economy system (after 2007) (Wu, 2020). China's renewable energy policy system only began to take shape in 2005 (Zeng et al., 2013). The development process of renewable energy policy can be divided into four stages: the first is from 2006 to 2008, the second is from 2009 to 2012, the third is from 2013 to 2015, and the fourth is from 2016 to the present. In this process, the policy effect is remarkable, and the cost effectiveness of the policy will also be improved (Tu et al., 2020). China's wave energy policy research foundation is weak, research is not sufficiently deep, and research enthusiasm is low. Conversely, China's wave energy policy is also gradually improving, showing a development trend from broad to detailed, diversified policy tools, and clear policy objectives; however, there remains room for improvement (Qi et al., 2023).

2.2 The effectiveness of energy policy

Second, the effect of the energy policy in the subdivision field was analysed. This type of research mainly includes evaluating energy policy effectiveness (Zhang et al., 2020), analysing the evolution of energy policy effectiveness (Ionescu & Darie, 2018), and examining the effect (Skjærseth, 2018) and impact of energy policies (Zeng et al., 2019). For example, by combining the policies of energy demand side and energy supply side, a significant synergistic effect between coal capacity reduction and carbon tax was found, and more stringent policies are conducive to reducing carbon emissions and saving energy (Li & Yao, 2020). China's renewable energy policy has the problem of diminishing marginal benefits, the policy supply structure is unreasonable, and the subsidy policy has a considerable negative impact (Xin-Gang & Ying, 2023). Without energy efficiency policies, energy consumption in Europe would have been approximately 12% higher in 2013 (Bertoldi & Mosconi, 2020). Residential energy policies have influenced the participation of residents in the energy markets of China and Germany (Sheng et al., 2018). Provincial emission reduction policies in China have positively impacted the reduction of PM10, and provincial renewable energy policies have positively impacted the reduction of SO2 and PM2.5 (Zeng et al., 2019). Carbon-cap policies and regulations impose strict limits on supply chain emissions. The carbon tax policy system provides greater freedom, but places significant financial pressure on companies to meet carbon reduction targets (Abbasi & Erdebilli, 2023).

2.3 Structural logic and synergy of energy policy

Third, the structural logic and synergy of energy policy in the subdivision field were analysed. In the previous years, scholars mostly conducted single-dimensional analysis, such as studying the combination of policy tools within energy policy (Petersen & Heurkens, 2018) and the combination effect (Oikonomou et al., 2014). In recent years, scholars have increased their research dimensions by constructing an analysis framework for energy policy and establishing a two-dimensional or three-dimensional index system to study the characteristics and synergy of indicators in each dimension of energy policy. Xu et al. (2023) used the qualitative literature analysis method based on policy instrument theory to evaluate the characteristics of China's blue carbon policy. Through a systematic exploration of China's blue carbon policy and governance through the two dimensions of policy tools and blue carbon types, they found that, despite extensive planning and public participation, policy tools are unbalanced, environmental tools dominate, and supply and demand tools are insufficient (Xu et al., 2023). Wang et al. (2024) constructed a three-dimensional spatial analysis framework of "policy structure-policy content-policy tool" to analyse China's forest ecological compensation policies, and found that the policy content is closely related to the social and economic background. Regarding policy tools, there is an imbalance between regulatory, market, and voluntary policy tools. Whether in the previous or current research, policy tools are widely used as dimensional indicators, which are the means and ways of policy implementation and are directly related to implementing and landing policy contents. In addition, the dimensions of policy objectives have received considerable attention. Wang and Chen (2023) constructed a set of three-dimensional analysis framework of "policy text—policy object—policy objective" and conducted a quantitative analysis of the implementation of energy development plans in key provinces during China's 13th Five-Year Plan period. They found that in the policy text dimension, the overall quality of energy development plan texts was high, whereas in the policy object dimension, multi-object coordinated development was required. In terms of policy objectives, there are significant differences among the 10 provincial-level administrative regions. Zhao and Wang (2023) conducted a quantitative evaluation of low-carbon energy transition policies from three dimensions: policy intensity, policy objectives, and policy tools. The results showed that the Chinese government's emphasis on low-carbon energy transformation fluctuated. The two policy goals of optimising fossil energy utilisation and developing low-carbon concepts have weak synergies with other policy goals and have no significant impact on carbon emissions reduction. The government prefers to adopt command-and-control policy tools.

2.4 Energy policy recommendations

Fourth, based on the institutional and policy research, detailed policy recommendations for specific areas are proposed. From a macro perspective, different areas and stages of development have different energy policy needs (Abbasi & Ahmadi Choukolaei, 2023; Abdelzaher et al., 2023). From the perspective of micro-subdivisions, China's energy supply policy should improve the comprehensiveness of the energy supply policy tool portfolio, establish a sound energy supply policy framework system, enhance policy predictability, build coordination and linkages among multiple policy areas, clarify the basis and objectives of energy supply policy, and promote the sustainable development of energy supply (Cheng et al., 2024). The hydrogen energy industry should strengthen the complementarity of hydrogen energy industry clusters, increase the proportion of hydrogen production policies, optimize the combination of storage and transportation modes, promote the diversification of hydrogen energy application scenarios, strengthen the supporting policies of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and reduce the dependence of the hydrogen energy industry on financial subsidies (Zhang et al., 2022). Cross-sectoral collaboration is a key factor for the efficient implementation of forest ecological compensation policies. Deepening the structure of forest ecological compensation policies and strengthening coordination and cooperation among policy participants are essential for realising the value of forest ecological products, promoting the sustainability and feasibility of policies, innovating policy tools and market mechanisms, and improving the implementation efficiency and effect optimisation path of policies (Wang et al., 2024). Active wind energy policies significantly affect wind power capacity. Provincial and local governments are critical in the policy formulation and implementation process, and should focus on promoting wind energy grid legislation, designing and implementing provincial grid-connection policies, and developing interconnection standards to promote the utilisation of existing wind power capacity (Zhang et al., 2016). Certain scholars have proposed specific energy policy optimisation paths. There is a large space for the future development of China's energy policy, and efforts can be made from three dimensions: coordination and linkage of policy participants, combination and balanced application of policy tools, and cohesion and refinement of policy content, to enhance coordination and linkage of policy participants, pay attention to cohesion and refinement of policy content, and emphasize the combination and balanced application of multiple policy tools (Tang et al., 2023). Photovoltaic industries requires tax incentives, equipment subsidies, law improvements, and the control of production capacity to cooperate with each other to achieve industrial structure upgrading (Chen et al., 2016).

In summary, the existing research has yielded a wealth of results. However, three research deficiencies remain: First, most of the existing energy policy researches focus on a single type of policy analysis in a certain energy subdivision field, or conduct a general evolutionary analysis for the whole energy policy, and there is minimal research on the overall energy policy under the "two-carbon" goal. A detailed and systematic analysis of energy policies of great significance for reducing carbon emissions in the energy field and realizing the "dual carbon" goal. Second, the existing energy policy analysis framework is mainly built around policy tools and objectives, and the importance of policy participants, such as the government, enterprises (Zhao et al., 2014) and the public (Sheng et al., 2018), should be fully considered. Third, the existing quantitative analysis of energy policy mostly explores the distribution and function of policy elements, such as policy tools and objectives, summarises the characteristics of energy policy, and analyses existing problems of energy policy. Path analysis mostly focuses on the optimisation path of energy policy and lacks the induction of a specific implementation path of energy policy. The position of the present research in relation to the previous research is shown in Table 1.Therefore, this study takes the energy policy under the "dual carbon" goal as the research object; builds a policy analysis framework based on three dimensions of policy tools, objectives, and participants; studies the internal structure characterization and logic of energy policy under the "dual carbon" background through the analysis of policy texts and summarises its implementation path; and proposes the future strength point of the policy. This study provides a reference point for future research in this field.

Table 1 The position of the present research about the previous research

3 Methodology

3.1 Framework construction

Policy tools represent the fundamental mechanisms utilised by government entities and relevant energy institutions to administer energy management and actualise policy objectives. Policy goals are the desired outcomes of policy formulation and implementation (Zhao & Wang, 2023). Policy participants are the direct targets of policy actions. These are interrelated, and policy tools can transform established goals into specific action paths and practical mechanisms by coordinating multiple actors at different levels to serve the overall policy goal. Therefore, based on existing research results and considering its own research objectives, this study built a three-dimensional analysis framework for the energy policy system from three dimensions: policy tools, participants, and objectives. The policy framework is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Energy policy analysis framework under the "dual carbon" goal

3.1.1 Policy tools

Policy tools are critical components of the policy ecosystem, encapsulating a range of methods and measures employed by governmental agencies to fulfil policy objectives (Mao et al., 2019). Depending on their nature and classification criteria, these tools can be divided into various categories. For instance, Rothwell and Zegveld (1985) categorized policy tools into three types: supply, environmental, and demand, based on their implementation effects (Rothwell & Zegveld, 1985). Other scholars have proposed different categorisations, such as classifying policy tools into compulsive, voluntary, and mixed types according to the level of policy intervention (Gan et al., 2022), or into regulatory, economic, and voluntary tools (Gustafsson & Anderberg, 2021). This study adopts the classification of Rothwell and Zegveld of supply, environment, and demand. Based on the specificities of China's energy sector, this study identified China's energy policy tools, comprising 3 categories and 20 distinct instruments, as presented in Table 2. These form the X dimensions of the analytical framework.

Table 2 Names and Definitions of Policy Tools

3.1.2 Policy participants

Policy participants refer to entities targeted by policy actions; that is, the implementers of policies. The energy sector, being integral to all facets of social life, encompasses various participants, each exhibiting distinct behavioural characteristics and areas of involvement, thereby playing varied roles. Within the "dual carbon" initiative in the energy sector, each participant contributes uniquely across various stages and aspects, collaboratively fostering low-carbon energy development and expediting the dual carbon process. Drawing from prior studies and relevant policy documents, this study identifies four primary policy participants (government, enterprises and other institutions, market entities, and the public) as the Y dimension in a three-dimensional analytical framework.

3.1.3 Policy objectives

The formulation and execution of policies, the selection and application of policy tools, and the engagement of policy participants converge towards achieving specific policy objectives. This study, through an exhaustive analysis of "dual carbon" policy documents, particularly focusing on goal planning and development requisites in the energy domain, integrates existing research and the articulated objectives of energy policies. Consequently, six policy goals that constitute the Z dimension of the three-dimensional analysis framework are delineated. This comprehensive approach ensures a holistic understanding of the policy landscape and aligns tools and participants with overarching objectives.

3.2 Selection and coding of energy policy texts

3.2.1 Selection of policy texts

In this study, the selection of energy policies is restricted to those pertinent to the low-carbon development of energy, which significantly influence the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector. A foundational moment in China's engagement in global climate change initiatives was its ratification of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, which marked the onset of concerted efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions. Accordingly, this study sets 1992 as the baseline year for initiating low-carbon transformation and development in China's energy field. The temporal scope for sourcing energy policy documents extends from 1 January 1992 to 31 December 2022. Utilising advanced search techniques within the Peking University Legal Information Database, this study narrows its focus to specific criteria: titles containing terms such as energy, coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, wind energy, water energy, solar energy, renewable energy, and new energy, coupled with full-text phrases such as carbon peak, carbon neutrality, low carbon, carbon emissions, energy conservation and emission reduction, greenhouse gas, climate change, sustainable development, dual carbon, and carbon reduction. To ensure a comprehensive collection of policy texts, additional searches were conducted on the official websites of the State Council and its subordinate departments, yielding 1,316 policy texts.

Given the voluminous and varied nature of the initially retrieved policy texts, criteria were established to ensure the authority, relevance, and validity of the selected documents. These criteria include: (1) The primary policy formulators and publishers are central departments, encompassing the State Council, State Council ministries and commissions, and directly affiliated institutions, while excluding provincial, municipal government documents, and non-governmental level documents; (2) the content of policy texts directly correlates with the low-carbon transformation and advancement of the energy sector, reflecting the means and strategies for energy conservation and carbon reduction; (3) the policy texts are publicly promulgated and currently effective, thereby excluding policy approvals, returning letters, reply summaries, meeting notices, and catalogue policy documents. After filtering non-compliant policy texts, a compilation of 409 policy documents was established (Table 3).

Table 3 Policy Objectives and Interpretation

3.2.2 Policy text coding

This study used content analysis to encode, classify, and quantify energy policy texts. First, all the clauses related to low-carbon energy development in the 409 policy documents were numbered. The numbering format is a ' policy number-chapter number-serial number.' Subsequently, two researchers used NVivo 11 to classify the three dimensions. The provisions of the unclear division were discussed until a consensus was reached. Finally, an energy policy text analysis unit coding table was formed (Table 4) with 5,586 policy analysis unit coding regulations.

Table 4 Codes for Energy Policy Text Analysis Units

4 External attribute analysis of policy text

4.1 Analysis of the number of papers

This study conducted a statistical analysis of the energy policies collected by year, identifying distinct developmental phases in the evolution of policies related to the "dual carbon" initiative. The distribution of the number of policies released is shown in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Annual variation in the number of energy low-carbon policy releases

4.1.1 Budding and initial stage (1992–2005)

In this era, the energy industry was in a phase of robust development, and the consciousness of energy conservation and low-carbon growth was emerging. Consequently, policies related to low-carbon energy development were at the foundational stage, with annual policy issuance numbers remaining in single digits. This period marked the prolonged gestational phase of low-carbon development policies in the energy sector.

4.1.2 Exploration and development period (2006–2012)

There was a notable increase in the number of energy policies implemented during this phase. The latter part of this period coincided with the commencement of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan." In 2011, the Eleventh National People's Congress approved the "Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China," post which numerous central departments issued policy documents emphasizing "carbon emission reduction." This period also saw a surge in low-carbon pilot initiatives in the energy field, which peaked in 2012.

4.1.3 System completion period (2013–2017)

This stage saw a rapid escalation in the number of energy policies compared with the previous phase. Building upon existing policies and guided by the overarching objectives of energy conservation and low carbon emissions, various departments began crafting specific policies targeting different energy subsectors or regions, thereby enriching the energy policy system. Notable policies include the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Geothermal Energy Development and Utilization" and the "Guiding Opinions on Improving Power Operation Regulation and Promoting Clean Energy Multi-firing and Full-firing."

4.1.4 Mature and stable period (2018–2022)

Policies pertaining to low-carbon energy development have entered a stable evolution phase during this period. Most policies were either revisions or enhancements of existing ones, or they addressed emerging challenges in low-carbon energy development. The introduction of the "dual carbon" timeline marked an urgent need for transformative and developmental strategies in the energy sector.

4.2 Analysis of the issuing agencies

Policy-issuing agencies were sorted and counted according to the Eighth Government Agency Reform of the State Council of China. The issuing agencies of energy policy documents involved 49 institutions and functional departments, such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the State Council, indicating that the issuing agencies of energy low-carbon development policies are relatively diverse, reflecting the importance of many government departments in China for low-carbon development in the energy field and achieving the 'dual carbon' goal.

Of the 409 policy documents analysed, 233 were issued by a single agency, whereas 176 were the result of collaborative efforts between multiple agencies. The National Energy Administration emerged as the predominant single-agency issuer, followed by the National Development and Reform Commission, underscoring their pivotal roles in driving the "dual carbon" agenda in China's energy sector. Jointly issued policies reflect close cooperation under the "dual carbon" goal, with frequent collaborations between the National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. To visually represent this collaborative network, a "Gephi" generated cooperation network diagram (Fig. 3) was utilised. As shown in Fig. 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are at the centre of the cooperation network, and the degree centrality and betweenness centrality of these two departments rank first, indicating that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are in a leading position in the process of promoting low-carbon development in the energy sector. The National Development and Reform Commission plays a planning and coordinating role in the low-carbon development of the energy sector, mobilising different departments to collaborate and formulate matching policy documents based on their responsibilities and authorities of different departments. As the competent department in the energy sector, the National Energy Administration often needs to obtain the support and cooperation of other departments in achieving the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector; therefore, it often issues joint documents with other departments.

Fig. 3

Cooperation network of energy policy-issuing agencies

5 Cross analysis of one-dimensional and two-dimensional dimensions of policy tools

5.1 One-dimensional analysis

5.1.1 Policy tools

After coding the 409 collected energy policy texts, 5886 content coding units were identified (Table 5). The analysis reveals that among the three categories of policy tools (environmental, supply, and demand), environmental-type policy tools are most frequently utilised in the collected energy policies. This prevalence underscores China’s strategic use of high-level policy measures such as goal planning, regulatory controls, and financial support to foster a conducive policy environment, indirectly propelling the realisation of the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector. In contrast, supply- and demand-type tools, which have a more direct impact on achieving these goals, are less frequently employed. This trend indicates a predominant reliance on environmental policy tools in China's current approach to carbon reduction in the energy sector.

Table 5 Distribution ratio of basic policy tools

In the realm of supply-type tools, infrastructure construction, research and development and technical support, and information support are the most utilised sub-tools, whereas capital investment, public services, and talent support are less common. China’s focus on technology and infrastructure reflects the early stages of development of its low-carbon energy transformation. Among demand-type tools, pilot demonstration projects, promotion of technology products, and encouragement and guidance are the most frequently used, whereas government procurement, international exchange and cooperation, and multiparty collaboration are less common. The prevalent use of encouragement and guidance tools, although beneficial for macro-level coordination, can be directionally vague, suggesting the need for more targeted and implementable tools, such as government procurement and multiparty collaboration, in future policy development.

For environmental-type tools, goal planning, regulation control, strategic measures, and organisation and coordination are highly utilised, signifying China's reliance on these methods to influence and drive the "dual carbon" goal. However, the lower usage of tax policies, financial support, and public participation implies the underutilisation of these tools and a lack of emphasis on public involvement in achieving low-carbon objectives.

5.1.2 Policy participants

The classification results for the 5,586 coding units are shown in Fig. 4. The proportion of the four major policy participants ranging from high to low is the government, enterprises, other institutions, market entities, and the public. The government accounts for more than 50% of all policy participants, indicating that it is a maker of energy policies and the main executor of policy tools. Enterprises and other institutions, including financial institutions and industry organisations, are the second largest policy participants in energy policy and play an important role in the process of achieving the "dual carbon" goal in the energy field. Financial institutions mainly provide financial support, such as credit, financing, and loans, or increase infrastructure construction and financing support in the energy field through innovative energy cooperation mechanisms and investment and financing models and promote the active participation of various entities in the low-carbon development of the energy sector. Enterprises primarily implement and promote low-carbon transformations in the energy sector through energy utilisation management, low-carbon energy-saving technology product research, and pilot projects. As the third-largest policy object of energy policy, market entities mainly undertake the tasks of building energy market systems, promoting energy market reforms, and stimulating the vitality of the energy market. The public plays a role in energy-saving activities, publicity, demonstration promotion, and the establishment of energy-saving and low-carbon awareness.

Fig. 4

Distribution of policy participants

5.1.3 Policy objectives

The 5586 coded policy tool units were further classified based on their objectives. The analysis showed a concentrated focus on improving energy efficiency, optimising the energy structure, and developing energy-saving and low-carbon technology products (Fig. 5). Improving energy efficiency is a prominent theme encompassing sector-specific enhancements and advancements in areas such as battery conversion and power generation efficiency. Optimising the energy structure, mainly by reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuels and increasing the share of renewable sources, is another key objective. Additionally, the emphasis on researching and promoting energy-saving and low-carbon technologies indicates a strategic approach for reducing carbon emissions and fostering sustainable development in the energy sector.

Fig. 5

Distribution of energy low-carbon development policy objectives

5.2 Two-dimensional cross analysis

5.2.1 Policy tools and participants

Government involvement in carbon reduction in the energy sector encompasses a diverse array of content and incorporates various policy tools. From a tool-centric standpoint, government policy tools are predominantly environmental, followed by supply- and demand-based tools. This finding suggests that the government primarily facilitates indirect energy development by establishing a conducive policy environment for carbon reduction in the energy domain. Regarding policy sub-tools, goal planning, regulatory control, infrastructure development, organizational coordination, and pilot demonstration projects have emerged as the government's most frequently employed instrument. An analysis of government policy tools usage reveals that, in pursuing the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector, the government predominantly assumes a strategic guidance and environmental facilitation role through macro-level guidance and comprehensive organisation.

Enterprises and other institutions are the second major participants in the energy policy, with a relatively balanced distribution of supply, demand, and environmental policies. Commonly employed policy sub-tools include technological research and development, goal planning, regulatory control, information support, encouragement and guidance, and strategic measures. As pivotal contributors to technological research and product innovation, enterprises often explore and develop green and low-carbon technologies in the energy sector. In goal planning, enterprises primarily establish improvements or achievement expectations based on their own energy usage, such as enhancing energy conservation, achieving ultralow emissions, and eliminating outdated production capacity. Regarding regulatory control, enterprises typically engage in two forms: adhering to official laws and regulations issued by the government, and formulating internal institutional norms around the their energy development status. Encouragement and guidance encompass various measures implemented by the government to stimulate enterprises, other institutions, and organisations, such as promoting pilot projects, incentivising investments in new energy projects, and guiding energy substitution development. Strategic measures involve diverse initiatives undertaken by enterprises or other institutions to achieve the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector, including advancing the reconstruction of the renewable energy industry infrastructure, exploring the application of new energy storage in multiple scenarios, and developing new models of energy production and marketing services.

Market entities represent another crucial participant in energy policy, displaying a discernible inclination toward the use and engagement of policy tools. Among the types of policy tools, environmental-type policy tools constituted the highest proportion, reaching 57.95%. Environmental-type policy tools underpin the market mechanism with the greatest number of participating entities. This trend may be attributed to the concentration of activities by market entities within the energy market, emphasising their role in establishing energy market development mechanisms, refining energy market trading mechanisms, and enhancing the market price formation mechanism for renewable energy generation, among other activities related to energy market mechanisms.

The public has emerged as the broadest and most numerous participant in energy policies. Public participation and actions in energy policies primarily manifest in three forms: social mobilisation, encouragement and guidance, and strategic measures. Social mobilisation denotes various activities conducted by the public to attain the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector, promoting the dissemination of green energy consumption awareness and education, and fostering an overarching atmosphere of energy conservation and carbon reduction throughout society. Regarding encouragement and guidance, the public typically engages in implementing energy-related strategic plans under government guidance, encompassing transformations in energy use and consumption patterns, and the adoption of advanced electricity use technologies. Strategic measures employed by the public in the carbon reduction development process in the energy sector include exploring smart energy development models, mobilising societal forces to participate in energy upgrading and reconstruction projects, and transforming traditional energy development methods. These measures aim to involve a broader spectrum of societal forces in realising the "dual carbon" goal in the energy sector and supporting low-carbon development within the energy domain (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6

Two-dimensional analysis results of policy tools and participants

5.2.2 Policy tools and objectives

Environmental-type policy tools predominate among the three categories for enhancing energy efficiency, closely followed by supply- and demand-type policy tools. Among the policy sub-tools, goal planning, infrastructure construction, information support, regulation control, and pilot demonstration projects have emerged as the most frequently employed. Correspondingly, in the context of optimising and adjusting the energy structure, energy policy documents exhibit a preference for environmental-type policy tools with less emphasis on supply- and demand-type tools. Alongside goal planning, infrastructure construction, and pilot demonstration projects, organisation and coordination also feature prominently in the optimisation and adjustment of the energy structure. A noteworthy homogenisation phenomenon is observed in the utilisation of policy tools across both dimensions to improve energy efficiency and optimise the energy structure. This manifests in the application of the three major types of policy tools and in the widespread use of various policy sub-tools.

Under the policy objective of dual control of total energy consumption and intensity, although all three types of policy tools are implicated, environmental-type policy tools constitute the predominant share. Regulation control, goal planning, organisation and coordination, and information support are frequently utilised as policy sub-tools. The dual control of energy consumption is typically overseen and implemented through a government assessment system, leading to a higher incidence of policy tools related to system planning and organizational coordination. The concept of energy-saving and low-carbon, established with a similar emphasis on environmental-type policy tools and less focus on supply- and demand-type tools, diverges in the use of policy sub-tools. Public participation, strategic measures, and regulation control are commonly employed under the policy objectives of establishing energy-saving and low-carbon concepts. A nuanced examination of the use of policy sub-tools under these two policy objectives revealed a tailored approach that aligns with their distinct dimensional characteristics. However, given the evolving landscape of the energy sector, heavy reliance on environmental policy tools may pose challenges in achieving the anticipated goals, necessitating further refinement and balance in the policy tool structure.

There is considerable disparity in the use of policy tools concerning the policy objective of reforming energy systems and mechanisms. The prevalence of environmental-type policy tools was notable, whereas supply-type policy tools lagged significantly behind demand-type tools, accounting for only 3.88%. Market mechanisms, regulation control, encouragement and guidance, strategic measures, and the construction of systems and mechanisms emerged as the top five policy sub-tools based on frequency of use. This asymmetry may be attributed to the distinct nature of the policy objective, which revolves around systemic and institutional changes, making it challenging to initiate reforms with supply- and demand-type tools such as infrastructure construction, capital investment, and technology product promotion. Instead, the reliance on environmental-type policy tools is more pronounced, infiltrating and influencing the cultivation of a conducive policy environment for energy systems and mechanism reform, thereby indirectly propelling reform forward.

Diverging from other policy objectives, the development of energy-saving and low-carbon technology products exhibits a more balanced distribution of supply, demand, and environmental policy tools. In this context, there is heightened reliance on supply- and demand-type policy tools to achieve policy objectives, with a comparatively lower use of environmental-type tools. Technological research and development, technical support, promotion of technology products, and capital investment are the top three most frequently employed policy sub-tools. Supply-type policy tools facilitate financial and technical support, whereas demand-type policy tools stimulate public demand for energy-saving and low-carbon products, forming a synergistic force that drives the development of these products. Consequently, the use of policy tools closely aligns with the inherent characteristics and requirements of a particular policy objective (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7

Two-dimensional analysis results of policy tools and policy objectives

5.2.3 Policy participants and objectives

The government places significant emphasis on specific policy objectives, particularly the enhancement of energy efficiency and optimisation and adjustment of the energy structure. The pivotal factor in attaining China's "dual carbon" goal within the energy sector lies in optimising and adjusting the energy structure. As the primary architect and principal contributor to energy policies, the government plays a guiding role. Enhancing energy efficiency is a highly effective strategy for reducing carbon emissions in the energy sector. This improvement can diminish the reliance on fossil fuels, thus mitigating carbon emissions from the source. Although China's energy efficiency lags behind that of other nations, there is substantial room for enhancement. However, augmenting energy efficiency requires multifaceted considerations encompassing the construction sector, electrical equipment, and public facilities. Consequently, the government must undertake an organizational role by implementing tailored measures to enhance energy efficiency across diverse industries, accounting for the distinctive characteristics of fields, regions, industries, and enterprises.

Enterprises and other institutions engage in various energy policy initiatives, primarily to fulfil policy objectives centred on improving energy efficiency and advancing energy-saving and low-carbon technological products. The pursuit of heightened energy efficiency aids enterprises in cost reduction and fosters innovation through energy-saving initiatives, concurrently diminishing carbon emission intensity to propel sustainable enterprise development. The establishment of the "dual carbon" goal has imposed new demands on all sectors concerning the development of energy-saving and low-carbon technological products. Guided by energy policies related to "dual carbon," enterprises and institutions have embarked on initiatives to realise the objective of developing energy-saving and low-carbon technological products. These initiatives encompass the research and development of green and low-carbon technology, transformation and upgrading of supply chains, and facilitation of communication and exchange of advanced technologies.

From the perspective of market entities, energy policies primarily revolve around achieving policy objectives related to energy systems, mechanism reform, and bolstering energy efficiency. Market entities serve as direct implementers of energy systems and mechanism reform and act as catalysts for their progress. Market entities tailor energy systems to align with the development status of the energy field, or pilot novel energy mechanisms to meet evolving needs. They establish energy policies and institutional frameworks in accordance with the "dual carbon" development goals. Furthermore, the establishment and operation of the energy market can harness its decisive role in allocating energy resources, invigorating various market entities, and promoting the consumption of renewable and new energy through participation in energy market transactions and the demonstration of new business models. This approach enhances the energy utilisation efficiency.

In the realm of energy policy, the primary goal is to realise two policy objectives: establishing the concept of energy saving and dual control of total energy consumption and intensity through public engagement. Achieving the "dual carbon" goal in the energy field entails a protracted and gradual development process involving multiple stakeholders. Public participation and action are instrumental in cultivating a widespread ethos of energy-saving and low-carbon goals, motivating more individuals to contribute to energy conservation and carbon reduction. Given the substantial share of daily life in the overall energy consumption, there is significant potential for energy conservation and carbon reduction at the public level. Consequently, many energy policies target the public to adopt new energy-saving habits, promote green practices, incentivise the purchase of energy-saving and low-carbon products, and reduce the total energy consumption and intensity across various aspects of life, including clothing, food, housing, and transportation (Fig. 8).

Fig. 8

Two-dimensional analysis results of policy participants and objectives

5.3 Path analysis under three-dimensional intersection

Energy policies related to the "dual carbon" goal use various policy tools involving multiple different participants to achieve different objectives. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a cross-analysis of the three dimensions of policy tools, participants, and objectives in energy policies, to summarise the policy paths for achieving the "dual carbon" goal in the energy field and better analyse the problems existing in energy policies. Through content coding and quantitative analysis of energy policies, a three-dimensional distribution statistical table of energy policies was obtained, as shown in Table 6. Based on the statistical results, a path framework diagram for the low-carbon development of China's energy policies was drawn (Fig. 9).

Table 6 Example of X–Y-Z three-dimensional cross analysis statistics

Fig. 9

Framework of the path to achieve low-carbon development of energy

5.3.1 Path 1

Various policy tools, including supply, demand, and environmental types, come into play to enhance energy efficiency. Regarding policy participants, all four entities are involved, with greater emphasis on the government, enterprises, other institutions, and market entities. The achievement of the policy objectives is orchestrated through three primary avenues. First, the government and enterprises engage in energy infrastructure development, such as the establishment of new energy projects, such as wind and photovoltaic power stations. This, coupled with the provision of energy information support, facilitates meticulous energy management, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. Second, at the macro level, the government, enterprises, and other institutions formulate target plans for the energy sector, offering planning guidance for improved energy efficiency. Simultaneously, a conducive institutional environment is fostered by introducing the corresponding legal norms or institutional measures. At the micro level, strategic measures such as energy conservation diagnosis and efficiency evaluations are undertaken by the government, enterprises, and other institutions. The third aspect involves collaborative efforts to implement pilot demonstration projects, such as the development of micro-energy network demonstration projects, offering replicable technical solutions and application models for efficient energy utilisation. Policy tools such as encouragement and guidance are commonly employed to enhance energy efficiency, with government-guided entities such as key energy-consuming enterprises adjusting industrial structures, implementing energy-saving technological transformations, and eliminating outdated production capacities to improve overall energy efficiency.

5.3.2 Path 2

In pursuit of optimising the energy structure, a spectrum of policy tools, including supply, demand, and environmental types, are deployed, with the primary participants being the government, enterprises, and other institutions. Given the bifurcated nature of the energy structure in terms of production and consumption, adjustments and optimisations occur around both spheres. Employing goal planning and organizational coordination, the government undertakes comprehensive planning to synchronise efforts among all stakeholders related to the energy structure. This involves commencing from the supply side, building the necessary infrastructure for clean and new energy, making corresponding financial investments, and ultimately optimising and adjusting the energy structure to reduce carbon emissions. Collaborative efforts between the government and enterprises in energy pilot demonstration projects have explored innovative models for traditional and new energy utilisation, progressively enhancing the energy structure while ensuring a stable energy supply. The promotion of technological products, such as green energy technology, is crucial for restructuring. Governments and enterprises collaborate to support research and development, upgrade production equipment, and integrate technologies, such as the Internet, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, to monitor energy use and curb unnecessary waste.

5.3.3 Path 3

In pursuit of the dual control of total energy consumption and intensity, the main participants are the government, enterprises, other institutions, and the public, predominantly utilising environmental-type policy tools. This path aims to reduce fossil fuel and energy consumption, thereby curbing carbon emissions. Government responsibilities include setting dual control goals and establishing norms, standards, and methods for energy consumption. Enterprises and other institutions implement these goals through energy-saving measures and audits. The public plays a significant role in mobilising participation and calling attention to dual-control objectives. Technology and information support are integral, with increased investment in research and development, technological upgrades, and the incorporation of technologies such as the Internet, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence for precise energy use monitoring, thereby reducing unnecessary waste.

5.3.4 Path 4

This path adopts a market-led and government-assisted approach to reform the energy system and mechanisms. Policy tools predominantly feature environmental-type tools, whereas supply-type tools are underutilised. The government, acting as an environmental protector, continually adjusts energy market laws and regulations and establishes a robust supervision system. As reform promoters, market entities contribute to innovative energy dispatch and trading mechanisms, construction of modern coal market systems, and establishment of natural gas futures markets. In collaboration with the government, energy market entities reform key areas in response to actual demand, deepening energy system reform and dismantling institutional barriers to low-carbon energy development.

5.3.5 Path 5

A balanced use of supply- and demand-type policy tools is observed through collaborative efforts between the government, enterprises, and other institutions. This path, which focuses on developing energy-saving low-carbon technologies and products, underscores the crucial role of financial support from the government. The government provides funds for research and development, talent cultivation, and technical support, whereas enterprises actively engage in technological innovation. International cooperation is essential, with entities collaborating globally on research and development, leading to the development and promotion of innovative energy technology products.

5.3.6 Path 6

With the objective of establishing the concept of energy conservation and low-carbon emissions, the public assumes a primary role, supported by the government, enterprises, and other institutions. Environmental-type policy tools predominate, with an emphasis on social mobilisation, knowledge dissemination, and strategic measures such as setting up "National Low Carbon Day." The government establishes an atmosphere of low-carbon development through legislation, whereas collaborative efforts in pilot demonstration projects involve the public in diverse fields, creating examples of low-carbon development across industries and encouraging the active practice of low-carbon behaviour in daily life.

6 Implications

6.1 Theoretical implications

Many scholars have conducted quantitative analyses in the field of energy policy, mostly based on the dimensions of policy tools or objectives, constructing two- or three-dimensional frameworks to study energy policies in specific subfields, as mentioned in the literature review section. This study constructs a three-dimensional analysis framework of "policy tools-policy participants-policy objectives," which, compared to other research, highlights the importance of policy participants and expands the theoretical framework of this field. Furthermore, unlike other scholars who primarily focus on research in specific sub-fields, this paper explores energy policies from a new perspective, namely, under the "dual carbon" targets, providing a new theoretical perspective and interpretation for energy policy research.

Regarding research conclusions, the energy policies studied in this paper under the "dual carbon" targets share similarities with other similar studies. Specifically, the overall use of policy tools in Chinese energy policies tends to favour environmental policy tools with strong government-led characteristics. For instance, in Chinese energy structure optimisation-related policy texts, environmental policy tools are predominantly used, with government-led measures such as "operational supervision" and "standardization" being the main focus (Tang et al., 2023). Similarly, China's new energy vehicle policy exhibits a pattern of "emphasis on the environment, light on supply and demand" in the distribution of policy tools (Zhou & Yan, 2024). Provincial-level renewable energy policies in China mainly employ "target planning" measures, whereas China's low-carbon transformation policy tends to favour command-control policy tools, although their actual carbon reduction effects are less effective than economic incentive policy tools (Zhao & Wang, 2023). China's energy policies exhibit strong government-led characteristics. Although this facilitates unified regulation and overall planning and enhances government authority, it may hinder the vitality of other entities, leading to low participation and potentially rendering policies impractical and superficial, thus undermining government credibility.

6.2 Practical implications

The practical significance can be divided into three aspects. First, by categorising the collected energy policy texts into stages, researchers can understand the changes in the quantity of policy text publications and predict future trends. Conducting a cooperative network analysis of publishing entities can help identify highly collaborative entities and enable researchers to establish new research networks. Second, analysing the correlation characteristics among policy objectives, tools, and participants can assist governments in optimising the structure of energy policies. This can facilitate the rational allocation of attention and enhance coordination between tools, participants, and objectives, thereby guiding the formulation of governmental energy policies. Third, summarising the implementation paths of the dual carbon targets can help the government identify key pathways and analyse existing problems in the energy pathways. This aids in achieving overall optimisation and synergistic effects in the energy sector, thereby assisting the government in macroeconomic regulation.

7 Conclusion

This study established a three-dimensional analytical framework based on the perspective of policy tools, participants, and objectives. It provides a detailed analysis of the characteristics of energy policies at the national level under the "dual carbon" goal. Based on the results of policy coding, it summarises the specific paths for the low-carbon transformation and development of China's energy policy and analyses existing problems in the formulation of energy policies to provide reliable and scientific policy recommendations for the low-carbon transformation and development of China 's energy sector and the successful realisation of the ' double carbon ' goal.

8 Findings

• (1) Developmental Stages of Energy Policies Guided by the overarching direction of "dual carbon," the evolution of energy policies for low-carbon development has unfolded through four distinct stages. This process has led to continuous refinement and supplementation of the energy policy system. Operating at macro and micro levels, these policies are steered by overarching energy planning policies, whereas implementation occurs through specific policies tailored to various fields, industries, and regions. The dynamic nature of low-carbon transformation, which is marked by progress and emerging challenges, prompts constant adjustments and the introduction of corresponding policies. The comprehensive development of policies in the three distinct waves underscores the government's sustained attention to and significance of the low-carbon development of energy. This reflects the rapid evolution and distinct stages of energy policies aligned with a low-carbon development trajectory. Policy issuance has entered a mature and stable period, and its volume is expected to remain relatively stable in the coming years. The stable volume of policy issuance indicates the government's sustained attention to energy policies under the "dual carbon" targets, which is conducive to increasing confidence in energy conservation and emissions reduction across society. It also mobilises various sectors of society to actively participate in energy conservation and emission-reduction efforts.

• (2) Diversified Issuing Agencies The issuance of energy policies involves a diverse array of agencies, showcasing a coordinated and collaborative model, with key departments as primary contributors and various departments playing supportive roles. The National Energy Administration and National Development and Reform Commission formulated corresponding energy policies based on evolving scenarios and trends in low-carbon development. This collaborative approach among government departments facilitates the coordination and implementation of policies, collectively propelling the low-carbon transformation and development towards the "dual carbon" goal.

• (3) Policy Tools and Their Distribution There is a discernible inclination towards environmental-type policy tools, with an uneven distribution of sub-tools within policy categories. Environmental-type policy tools play a predominant role in promoting low-carbon transformation and energy development, whereas supply- and demand-type policy tools are underutilised. The emphasis is on macro-guiding policy tools such as goal planning and regulatory control, along with demonstration and promotion policy tools such as pilot demonstration projects and technology–product promotion. The use of communication, cooperation, and financial policy tools was relatively limited. This could lead to overreliance on the entire government to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals. Government-led initiatives may result in a loss of vitality among enterprises, the public, and other stakeholders. Therefore, it is important to consider the coordinated use of policy tools.

• (4) Insufficient Participation from Various Stakeholders The participation of multiple participants is insufficient, and the roles of market entities and the public are not fully played. In current energy policies, there are many provisions involving the government, enterprises, and other institutions, whereas the number of policy provisions related to market entities and the public is relatively small, which places the pressure on energy transformation and development on the government, enterprises, and other institutions. The enthusiasm of the general public and market entities is insufficient or has not been fully exploited. Chinese energy policies must address this issue, because they are also present in the energy policies of their subdivided fields (Sheng et al., 2018). Neglecting this issue could adversely affect the social acceptance and efficiency of policy implementation.

• (5) Diverse but Focused Policy Objectives Policy objectives are diverse, with a dual focus on cost reduction and revenue increase. Emphasis is placed on enhancing energy efficiency, optimising the energy structure, and developing energy-saving and low-carbon technology products. Notably, insufficient attention has been paid to the dual control of total energy consumption and intensity, reform of energy systems and mechanisms, and establishment of energy-saving and low-carbon concepts. The number of policy provisions highlights reliance on a balanced approach to cost reduction and revenue increase, with a predominant emphasis on cost reduction. This reflects the Chinese government's current emphasis on improving energy efficiency. The objective of enhancing the energy efficiency is characterised by short cycles, quick results, and relatively easy quantification. However, there has been insufficient emphasis on objectives that require long-term investment and are not easily quantifiable.

• (6) Enhanced Coordination Needed Between Policy Tools and Participants A three-dimensional analysis of policy tools, participants, and objectives underscores the need for enhanced coordination. While different policy objectives involve varying participants and tools, the overuse of environmental-type policy tools and insufficient use of supply- and demand-type policy tools were observed. Homogenisation in the use of policy tools for different objectives is evident. Governments, enterprises, and other institutions predominantly participate in energy policies, whereas market entities and the public are involved in fewer policy objectives. Rationalising the allocation of policy tools according to objectives and participants is crucial for effective energy policy implementation.

9 Recommendations

• (1) Establishing and Improving a Comprehensive Policy System: Enhancing the systematic and high-level nature of energy policies by incorporating laws, regulations, and outline policies to complement existing notification and planning documents. Implement a "1 + N" policy system construction, starting with guiding documents at the energy field level and extending to supporting policies and safeguard measures at the subdivision field and industry levels. A well-connected energy policy system that integrates seamlessly within the energy sector and aligns cohesively with policies from other sectors such as transportation, construction, and industry should be established.

• (2) Leveraging Synergies among Tools, Objectives, and Participants: Optimise the structure of energy policy tools by increasing the proportion of supply- and demand-type tools. Balance the use of subdivided tools, emphasising talent factors and public service levels on the supply side and utilising government procurement tools on the demand side. Encourage international cooperation in energy technology development and innovation, and foster collaboration among governments, enterprises, universities, and energy institutions. The use of tax policies and financial support tools should be increased to reduce the costs and risks associated with low-carbon energy transformation and stimulate innovation across all stakeholders.

• (3) Rational Allocation of Attention: Focus on gradually broadening sources of income while reducing expenditures. Given the exploratory stage of energy-saving low-carbon technology, concentrate on reducing expenditures by improving energy efficiency and implementing dual-control actions for energy consumption. With the development of green, low-carbon, and clean energy, shift attention to optimising and adjusting energy structures and developing energy-saving low-carbon products. Prioritize technological innovation and industry transformation for sustainable and high-quality development.

• (4) Encourage Multi-Stakeholder Participation: Foster a joint force involving the government, enterprises, market entities, and the public to realise low-carbon energy development. Relax access restrictions for market entities, stimulate the energy market's vitality, and encourage public participation through educational initiatives and strategic measures. Empower the public to influence policy formulations related to low-carbon energy development, thereby enhancing the democratic and scientific nature of policy decisions.

• 1. (5)Timely Formulation, Adjustment, and Improvement of Policies: Acknowledge the phased nature of low-carbon transformation in energy and the evolving "dual carbon" goal. Formulate, adjust, and improve energy policies in response to the dynamic progress and emerging challenges at different stages of low-carbon transformation. Proactively address issues and challenges, and ensure timely policy improvements to facilitate the smooth progression of low-carbon energy development.

10 Research limitations

This study had several limitations. First, the selection of policy samples mainly focused on energy policies issued by central government departments, including documents issued by the State Council, its ministries, and directly affiliated agencies, while excluding documents from provincial and municipal governments and non-governmental entities, thus lacking comprehensiveness. Second, the external attribute analysis of policy texts in this study only involved an analysis of the number of documents issued and the entities issuing them without conducting deeper analyses.

11 Recommendations for future research

In future, efforts will be made to introduce new dimensions to study energy policies and further analyse the relationship between central and local policies. Additionally, there will be a focus on conducting more detailed analyses of the external attributes of policies, including document type and thematic content.