Abstract
The role of multimodal transportation within the integrated transportation system is critical and it represents one of the primary directions for future development. Its organizational efficiency significantly influences energy consumption and carbon emissions. Addressing a gap in existing literature, which mainly focuses on government preferences and transport enterprises’ considerations while neglecting mechanisms to influence cargo owners’ willingness, this study proposes a low-carbon multimodal transport promotion mechanism that takes into account both government regulation and cargo owners' willingness to promote the development of low-carbon multimodal transportation. In detail, this study firstly establishes a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the government, carriers, and cargo owners, based on the game relations among the main stakeholders of multimodal transportation. Then, it uses numerical simulation to verify and determine the optimal evolutionary stabilization strategy within the game system. Lastly, based on the effects of key parameter changes on the system's stability evolution trajectory and speed, this study proposes a corresponding optimization method for low-carbon transportation strategies. Innovatively incorporating the cargo owners' willingness towards low-carbon multimodal transport from a dynamic perspective, it systematically delineates the mechanism of influence on low-carbon efforts by various stakeholders in the multimodal transportation process. The results demonstrated that factors such as the initial strategy selection probability of the three parties, regulatory cost, carbon tax coefficient, low-carbon certification subsidy per unit of emission reduction, and subsidy return ratio affect the evolutionary process of the system. The carbon tax coefficient is crucial for influencing carriers' strategy choices. When the low-carbon certification subsidy per unit of emission reduction is set near 0.4, and the subsidy return ratio is set at 0.4 ~ 0.6, the whole system can converge to the optimal evolutionary stable state at a faster speed. The findings provide theoretical guidance and policy recommendations for the development of low-carbon multimodal transportation.
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Funding
This work was supported by the Chongqing Transportation Science and Technology Project [No. CQJT-CZKJ2023-10]; the Sichuan Science and Technology Program [No. 2022YFG0132]; the Chongqing Social Science Planning Project [No. 2021NDYB035]; the Chongqing Postgraduate Joint Training Base Project (Chongqing Jiaotong University-Chongqing YouLiang Science & Technology Co., Ltd Joint Training Base for Postgraduates in Transportation) [No. JDLHPYJD2019007]; the Chongqing Social Science Program Office, [No. 2023PY27]; the Scientific and Technological Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission, [No. KJQN202300741].
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Hu, X., Cheng, R., Zhao, J. et al. Promotion strategy of low-carbon multimodal transportation considering government regulation and cargo owners’ willingness. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04829-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04829-6