Abstract
Could climate change and child marriage be related? At first, it may seem unlikely, but if we consider the impact of climate change on poverty and income, the connection becomes more plausible. In this paper we use a structural equation model to investigate this relationship. Our results indicate that increased "climate vulnerability," as measured by the ND-GAIN index, is associated with both a direct increase in child marriage and indirect increases due to higher poverty and gender inequality. However, since climate vulnerability is highly correlated with national economics, it is possible that poverty is the underlying factor behind both child marriage and climate vulnerability itself. When we replace climate vulnerability with climate exposure (a variable based solely on the biophysics of climate change), our results remained consistent. This supports our model's premise that climate change primarily affects child marriage through its impacts on access to resources and income, which in turn affect the main drivers of child marriage: extreme poverty and gender inequality. Our findings have broader implications, as it is likely that several negative social outcomes of climate change work through similar mechanisms, i.e., an indirect impact of climate change on social variables mediated through its previous effects on economic variables.
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The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available in: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZGgi9qCw19crelAfoaOlKciXANWnb9jy/view.
Notes
The present study is cross-section. At this stage it is not possible to construct panel data due to information limitations, particularly child marriage indicators, which generally exist for one or a few years. From this point of view this is a limitation of this study because we are assuming that this indicator has little variation over time and that its variability is present mostly between countries and not within countries. Although there is evidence that the child marriage indicator has greater variability between countries than within them, subsequent studies aim to investigate this aspect more deeply would provide useful information.
Estimated coefficients are standardized (i.e. they make comparable the marginal effects of the different variables; and, * = p < 0.1, ** = p > 0,05 and *** = p < 0.01.
The vanishing of the direct effect is expected. As mediators have explanatory powers, it is expected that the direct effect from climate vulnerability to child marriage vanishes. For example, in the consumption function there is an empirical relation between current income and consumption, but if the theory of permanent income is correct, the effect of permanent income should be significant while the direct relation between current income and consumption vanishes. In fact, the vanishing of the direct effect is a product of the explanatory capacity of the model to unveil the explanatory factors for a particular relationship.
Without doubt, this opens a huge area of discussion between social scientists who agree and those who disagree with Gary S. Becker’s claim that the ‘rational choice model’ proposed by neoclassical economists is the only theory able to unify the social sciences (Becker, 1996).
It is interesting to briefly discuss our results here in the context of a number of theoretical studies that have hypothesized the future impact of global warming (climate change) on total factor productivity (Dietz & Stern 2015; Moore & Diaz, 2015; Moyer et al., 2014; Stern, 2007, 2013). Additionally, recent literature has empirically estimated the negative effects of increased temperatures on total factor productivity (TFP) through its negative impacts on labor and capital productivities (Adhvaryu et al., 2014; Aghion and Durlauf, 2005; Burke et al., 2015; Chen & Yang, 2017; Corno et al., 2020; Dell et al., 2012; Deryugina & Hsiang, 2014; Letta and Tol, 2019; Somanathan et al., 2015; Syverson, 2011). All these theoretical insights as well as the available empirical evidence clearly indicate that aggregate income is negatively affected as a country is more vulnerable to climate change, a theoretical implication and an already detected empirical fact which we have corroborated in this paper by the regressions we have performed with our sample of 208 countries, and that confirm the previous results of Dogru et al. (2019), Kling et al, (2021) and Corno et al. (2020). In addition we have empirically shown here that reductions of a county’s aggregate income increase gender discrimination by the mechanism affecting social levels (Taylor et al., 2019) and extreme poverty (a fact well documented by the trickle-down theory (Zidar, 2018). Finally, we have also shown that both variables, extreme poverty, and gender discrimination, are highly correlated with child marriages of boys and girls of less than18 years old, although in a lesser extend for the case of extreme poverty in the case of marriages of children of 15 years of age or younger.
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Pastén, R., Figueroa, E. & Fuentes, M. Not a dream wedding: the hidden nexus between gender discrimination, climate change and child marriage. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04813-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04813-0