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Assessment of the impact of land use/land cover change on carbon storage in Chengdu, China, in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, 2000–2030

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Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) change can dramatically influence carbon storage. A comprehensive study of the link between LULC and carbon storage can enhance regional carbon storage, optimise territorial spatial layout, coordinate land development and utilisation, improve ecological protection mechanisms, and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. This paper established a "past-present-future" long-series carbon storage assessment model with Chengdu as the research area. Combining the Markov-PLUS and InVEST models, we analysed the spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage in Chengdu from 2000 to 2030 and finally explored the sensitivity of LULC changes to carbon storage. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2030, LULC changes in Chengdu show the overall pattern of "Cultivated Land decreases in a large area; Grassland decreases gradually; Construction Land expands in a large scale; Woodland and Water increase slightly; Unused Land decreases first and then increases. "Land decreases first and then increases." (2) The overall carbon storage in Chengdu shows a fluctuating downward trend, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of "higher in the north, west, and southeast, and lower in the east and central," and the ED scenario contributes to the achievement of peak carbon and carbon neutrality targets. (3) The transformation of Cultivated Land into Construction Land was the key factor in reducing carbon storage. In contrast, converting Grassland and Cultivated Land into Woodland played the role of compensating carbon storage. In the context of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study could inform future planning and development regarding carbon storage in urban areas.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFB3903604). The Central Government to Guide Local Scientific and Technological Development(22ZY1QA005). The National Natural Science Foundation of China (41930101, 42161069) and was partially supported by LZJTU EP 201806, the Key Research and Development Project of Lanzhou Jiaotong University (LZJTU-ZDYF2301) and Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA870). The authors are grateful to the editors and reviewers for their valuable suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Hao Yuan, Zhihua Zhang, Dongdong Feng, Xing Rong, Shaobin Zhang & Shuwen Yang

  2. National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Hao Yuan, Zhihua Zhang, Dongdong Feng, Xing Rong, Shaobin Zhang & Shuwen Yang

  3. Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping Gansu Province, No.88 Anning West Road, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Hao Yuan, Zhihua Zhang, Dongdong Feng, Xing Rong, Shaobin Zhang & Shuwen Yang

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  1. Hao Yuan
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Yuan, H., Zhang, Z., Feng, D. et al. Assessment of the impact of land use/land cover change on carbon storage in Chengdu, China, in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, 2000–2030. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04797-x

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