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Uncertainty-based analysis of water balance components: a semi-arid groundwater-dependent and data-scarce area, Iran

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Abstract

In regions where gauging is lacking or limited, the development of a methodology for water balance assessment is a key challenge. Water balance assessment is a significant task in managing the sustainable use of water resources. This study aims to improve the accuracy of water balance components including actual evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rate in the Hashtgerd study area, Iran. Groundwater extraction volumes are determined based on two-period data collection; while precipitation, evapotranspiration, and groundwater storage change are calculated from annual datasets. To address the data-scarce problem, as an additional measure of actual evapotranspiration, satellite measurements are used to improve recharge rate accuracy. To understand the impact of satellite data uncertainties on water resources studies, each estimated water balance component is compared to observation data, and the uncertainty of these components is quantified using statistical methods, variability, and standard error. The results show that the Hashtgerd aquifer receives 199 MCM from the main drains which is a major part of the water inflow. The extraction of wells is one of the most significant outflow components of the aquifer (i.e., 284 MCM); while water loss by evaporation is estimated to be 207 MCM of the outflow. The finding shows that satellite-based evapotranspiration can reduce recharge uncertainty which can improve the resolution of groundwater balance. This study supports that the aquifer is under severe environmental pressure. One of those concerns is that groundwater levels decreased by 0.92 m per year between 2000 and 2019.

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the support from Alborz Regional Water Authority and Research Institute of Water Engineering and Management of Tarbiat Modares University (Contract No. 05/98/4748/101), in supplying the part of required data for a real-case study described in this paper.

Funding

This work was supported by Alborz Regional Water Authority and Research Institute of Water Engineering and Management of Tarbiat Modares University (Contract No. 05/98/4748/101), in supplying the part of required data for a real-case study described in this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, PO Box 14115-336, Tehran, Iran

    Hamed Ketabchi & Elmira Valipour

  2. Research Institute of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Davood Mahmoodzadeh

  3. School of Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, British Columbia, Canada

    Davood Mahmoodzadeh

  4. Alborz Regional Water Authority, Karaj, Iran

    Tofigh Saadi

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HK contributed to supervision, conceptualization, methodology, investigation, software, writing and editing; DM contributed to conceptualization, methodology, investigation, visualization, writing and editing; EV contributed to methodology, writing and editing; TS contributed to methodology and data. All authors read and approved the final paper.

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Correspondence to Hamed Ketabchi.

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Ketabchi, H., Mahmoodzadeh, D., Valipour, E. et al. Uncertainty-based analysis of water balance components: a semi-arid groundwater-dependent and data-scarce area, Iran. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04507-7

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