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Trend Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in Arunachal Pradesh (India)

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Abstract

Rainfall variability is a key element in water resource management. There has been significant variability in rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, with the state being in the highest rainfall zone in India. The present study attempts to investigate the annual rainfall trend along with the change points in the rainfall time series, considering more than a hundred years of data (1901–2002) in eleven districts of Arunachal Pradesh. First, a serial correlation test was conducted on the entire time-series data for the three districts to detect the serially independent time series, followed by the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Spearman’s rank correlation test to ascertain the presence of a statistically significant trend in hydrological climate variables. Sen’s slope method was applied to estimate the magnitude of the trend. Pre-whitening, trend free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall, and bias corrected pre-whitening, along with two variance correction approaches, are applied to the serially correlated data. All the districts under consideration show a decreasing trend in rainfall in the investigation over the years. A comparative study of the trend test method was also carried out. Further, to identify the trend change points in the time series, a sequential Mann–Kendall test is conducted. Assessing 100 years of time series data for the region makes the study unique of its kind and is likely to play a vital role in environmental policymaking. Furthermore, it will be helpful for water resource management, land use, land cover management, sustainable agricultural planning, and the overall socio-economic development of the region.

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Data Availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thankfully acknowledge the Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India for providing financial support. Infrastructural support to carry out the investigation was provided by the North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Arunachal Pradesh, India. The authors also acknowledge India Meteorological Department, Pune, India, and India Water Portal for providing the research data.

Funding

Funding for this research was received from the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Department, North Eastern Regional Institute for Science and Technology, Nirjuli, Arunachal Pradesh, India

    Ghritartha Goswami & Ram Kailash Prasad

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  1. Ghritartha Goswami
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Contributions

Conceptualization, G.G. and R.K.P; methodology, G.G. and R.K.P; software, G.G.; validation, G.G. and R.K.P; formal analysis, G.G.; investigation, G.G. and R.K.P; resources, G.G. and R.K.P; data curation, G.G.; writing—original draft preparation, G.G.; writing—review and editing, R.K.P; visualization, G.G. and R.K.P; supervision, R.K.P; project administration, R.K.P.

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Correspondence to Ghritartha Goswami.

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Goswami, G., Prasad, R.K. Trend Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in Arunachal Pradesh (India). Environ Model Assess 28, 1093–1125 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-023-09903-3

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