Abstract
This paper investigates the ecological-economic sustainability of coral reef socio-ecological systems under fishing and environmental pressures. To achieve this, a dynamic, spatially explicit, multi-species, multi-fleet fisheries model is developed. Stochastic environmental shocks are assumed to alter coral cover and consequently the entire coral reef social-ecological system. The model is calibrated using ecological, socio-economic and environmental data in French Polynesia. Four exploratory fishing strategies and a goal-seeking strategy entitled Stochastic Multi-Species Maximum Sustainable Yield (SMMSY) are compared in terms of ecological-economic outcomes and sustainability of the socio-ecological system. The SMMSY turns out to promote ecological-economic sustainability. It is characterised by a global increase in fishing effort pointing to the relative current under-exploitation of the fishery. SMMSY balances the trophic level of catches after natural shocks and sustains the fundamental herbivore grazing process. SMMSY strategies are also more diversified in terms of temporality, gears, spatial distribution of fishing and target species.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
All data and algorithms used in this study can be found at the Google Drive of the following mail address: these.algorithme.al@gmail.com with the password: eco-viability.
Notes
Less than 1% between 2007 and 2017 [81].
More than 50% in average according to social surveys.
A tui is “A wreath of fish consisting of one or more species, tied together with plant fibre drawn through their gills and then suspended on a metal holder, which forms the sales unit.” [60].
Around 12€.
\(K_{lagoon}\) equals 50% for the lagoon and \(K_{reef}\) is set at 98% for the fore reef.
Basically, all things equal, the higher the coral cover, the less predation there is and the more herbivores there are.
Historical Labor (2005–2016) is presented in Table 4. Estimated labor is assumed to grow linearly following an estimated demographic rate noted \(l_{f}\): \(L_{f}(t+1)=l_{f}*L_{f}(t_{h})\) with \(t_{h}=2016.\)
PGEM (Plan de Gestion de l’Espace Maritime) in French — [82].
The biological dimension embeds these phenomena through a forcing of the coral cover in 2006, 2007, 2008 (COTS) and 2010 (cyclone OLI) to its historical and observed % of cover
$$x_{1,reef}(t_{shock})=x_{1,reef}^{hist}(t_{shock})\quad with \quad t_{shocks}=[2007,2008,2009,2010].$$When a relevant natural shock occurs, coral cover on the fore reef decreases of 70% in average and it happens once every decade in average for the last 30 years.
The Closure scenario displays an empty radar plot except for the Share of Herbivores Biomass (51%) and as a consequence is not plotted here.
References
Bellwood, D. R., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., & Nyström, M. (2004). Confronting the coral reef crisis. Nature, 429(6994), 827.
Nyström, M., Folke, C., & Moberg, F. (2000). Coral reef disturbance and resilience in a human-dominated environment. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15(10), 413–417.
Adjeroud, M., Chancerelle, Y., & Lisonde Loma, T. (2010). Vulnérabilité et résilience des récifs coralliens de polynésie française face aux perturbations de grande ampleur. Le Courrier de la nature 252, 20–25.
Wilson, S., Graham, N., & Polunin, N. V. (2007). Appraisal of visual assessments of habitat complexity and benthic composition on coral reefs. Marine Biology, 151(3), 1069–1076.
Cinner, J., McClanahan, T., Wamukota, A., Darling, E., Humphries, A., Hicks, C., Huchery, C., Marshall, N., Hempson, T., Graham, N., et al. (2013). Social-ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climatic shocks. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular, (1082), I.
Cheung, W. W., Lam, V. W., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., Zeller, D., & Pauly, D. (2010). Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16(1), 24–35.
FAO. (2018). The State of world fisheries and aquaculture - meeting the sustainable development goals.
Sumaila, U. R., Cheung, W. W., Lam, V. W., Pauly, D., & Herrick, S. (2011). Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nature Climate Change, 1(9), 449–456.
Doyen, L., Béné, C., Bertignac, M., Blanchard, F., Cissé, A. A., Dichmont, C., Gourguet, S., Guyader, O., Hardy, P.-Y., Jennings, S., et al. (2017). Ecoviability for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Fish and Fisheries, 18(6), 1056–1072.
Link, J. S., Thébaud, O., Smith, D. C., Smith, A. D., Schmidt, J., Rice, J., Poos, J. J., Pita, C., Lipton, D., Kraan, M., et al. (2017). Keeping humans in the ecosystem.
NOAA. (2007). Magnuson-Stevens fishery conservation and management act.
Pikitch, E., Santora, C., Babcock, E., Bakun, A., Bonfil, R., Conover, D., Dayton, P., Doukakis, P., Fluharty, D., Heneman, B., et al. (2004). Ecosystem-based fishery management. Science, 305(5682), 346–347.
Spence, M. A., Blanchard, J. L., Rossberg, A. G., Heath, M. R., Heymans, J. J., Mackinson, S., Serpetti, N., Speirs, D. C., Thorpe, R. B., & Blackwell, P. G. (2018). A general framework for combining ecosystem models. Fish and Fisheries, 19(6), 1031–1042.
Legović, T., & Geček, S. (2010). Impact of maximum sustainable yield on independent populations. Ecological Modelling, 221(17), 2108–2111.
Walters, C. J., Christensen, V., Martell, S. J., & Kitchell, J. F. (2005). Possible ecosystem impacts of applying MSY policies from single-species assessment. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62(3), 558–568.
Clark, C. W. (2010). Mathematical bioeconomics: The mathematics of conservation, vol. 91. John Wiley & Sons.
Dichmont, C., Pascoe, S., Kompas, T., Punt, A. E., & Deng, R. (2010). On implementing maximum economic yield in commercial fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(1), 16–21.
Hoshino, E., Pascoe, S., Hutton, T., Kompas, T., & Yamazaki, S. (2018). Estimating maximum economic yield in multispecies fisheries: a review. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 28(2), 261–276.
Guillen, J., Macher, C., Merzéréaud, M., Bertignac, M., Fifas, S., & Guyader, O. (2013). Estimating MSY and MEY in multi-species and multi-fleet fisheries, consequences and limits: an application to the bay of Biscay mixed fishery. Marine Policy, 40, 64–74.
Mueter, F. J., & Megrey, B. A. (2006). Using multi-species surplus production models to estimate ecosystem-level maximum sustainable yields. Fisheries Research, 81(2), 189–201.
Clark, C. W. (2006). The worldwide crisis in fisheries: Economic models and human behavior. Cambridge University Press.
Tromeur, E., & Doyen, L. (2019). Optimal harvesting policies threaten biodiversity in mixed fisheries. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 24(4), 387–403.
Tromeur, E., Doyen, L., Tarizzo, V., Little, L. R., Jennings, S., & Thébaud, O. (2021). Risk averse policies foster bio-economic sustainability in mixed fisheries. Ecological Economics, 190,.
De Lange, C. (2013). Fishery forced to close as shrimp stocks collapse.
Lopes, P. F., Pennino, M. G., & Freire, F. (2018). Climate change can reduce shrimp catches in equatorial Brazil. Regional Environmental Change, 18(1), 223–234.
Stock, C. A., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Brander, K. M., Cheung, W. W., Curchitser, E. N., Delworth, T. L., Dunne, J. P., Griffies, S. M., Haltuch, M. A., et al. (2011). On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Progress in Oceanography, 88(1–4), 1–27.
Holsman, K., Haynie, A., Hollowed, A., Reum, J., Aydin, K., Hermann, A., Cheng, W., Faig, A., Ianelli, J., Kearney, K., et al. (2020). Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–10.
Parmesan, C. (2006). Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 637–669.
Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., Erasmus, B. F., De Siqueira, M. F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., et al. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427(6970), 145–148.
Cheung, B. K.-S., Choy, K., Li, C.-L., Shi, W., & Tang, J. (2008). Dynamic routing model and solution methods for fleet management with mobile technologies. International Journal of Production Economics, 113(2), 694–705.
Zhao, W., Chao, H., Zhang, L., Ta, N., Zhao, Y., Li, B., Zhang, K., Guan, Z., Hou, D., Chen, K., et al. (2019). Integration of QTL mapping and gene fishing techniques to dissect the multi-main stem trait in rapeseed (Brassica Napus l.). Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, 1152.
Brander, K. M. (2007). Global fish production and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19709–19714.
Cheung, W. W., Bruggeman, J., & Butenschön, M. (2019). Projected changes in global and national potential marine fisheries catch under climate change scenarios in the twenty-first century. Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture, 63.
Diop, B., Sanz, N., Duplan, Y. J. J., Blanchard, F., Pereau, J.-C., Doyen, L., et al. (2018). Maximum economic yield fishery management in the face of global warming. Ecological Economics, 154, 52–61.
Lagarde, A., Doyen, L., Ahad-Cissé, A., Caill-Milly, N., Gourguet, S., Le Pape, O., Macher, C., Morandeau, G., & Thébaud, O., et al. (2018). How does MMEY mitigate the bioeconomic effects of climate change for mixed fisheries. Ecological Economics, 154, 317–332.
Cheung, W. W., Reygondeau, G., & Frölicher, T. L. (2016). Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5 c global warming target. Science 354(6319), 1591–1594.
Gomes, H., Kersulec, C., Doyen, L., Blanchard, F., Cisse, A. A., & Sanz, N. (2021). The major roles of climate warming and ecological competition in the small-scale coastal fishery in French Guiana. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 1–21.
Fulton, E. A., Smith, A. D., Smith, D. C., & van Putten, I. E. (2011). Human behaviour: the key source of uncertainty in fisheries management. Fish and Fisheries, 12(1), 2–17.
Halpern, B. S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K. A., Kappel, C. V., Micheli, F., D’Agrosa, C., Bruno, J. F., Casey, K. S., Ebert, C., Fox, H. E., et al. (2008). A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science, 319(5865), 948–952.
Boschetti, F., Prunera, K., Vanderklift, M. A., Thomson, D. P., Babcock, R. C., Doropoulos, C., Cresswell, A. & Lozano-Montes, H. (2020). Information-theoretic measures of ecosystem change, sustainability, and resilience. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 77(4), 1532–1544.
Thébaud, O., Link, J. S., Kohler, B., Kraan, M., López, R., Poos, J. J., Schmidt, J. O., & Smith, D. C. (2017). Managing marine socio-ecological systems: picturing the future. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7), 1965–1980.
Plagányi, ÉE., Punt, A. E., Hillary, R., Morello, E. B., Thébaud, O., Hutton, T., Pillans, R. D., Thorson, J. T., Fulton, E. A., Smith, A. D., et al. (2014). Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity. Fish and Fisheries, 15(1), 1–22.
Mumby, P. J. (2006). The impact of exploiting grazers (Scaridae) on the dynamics of Caribbean coral reefs. Ecological Applications, 16(2), 747–769.
Dubois, M., Gascuel, D., Coll, M., & Claudet, J. (2017). Recovery debts can be revealed by ecosystem network-based approaches. Ecosystems, 1–19.
Hardy, P.-Y., Béné, C., Doyen, L., & Schwarz, A.-M. (2013). Food security versus environment conservation: A case study of solomon islands’ small-scale fisheries. Environmental Development, 8, 38–56.
Doyen, L., De Lara, M., Ferraris, J., & Pelletier, D. (2007). Sustainability of exploited marine ecosystems through protected areas: a viability model and a coral reef case study. Ecological Modelling, 208(2), 353–366.
Doyen, L., Armstrong, C., Baumgärtner, S., Béné, C., Blanchard, F., Cissé, A., Cooper, R., Dutra, L., Eide, A., Freitas, D., et al. (2019). From no whinge scenarios to viability tree. Ecological Economics, 163, 183–188.
Grafton, R. Q., Doyen, L., Béné, C., Borgomeo, E., Brooks, K., Chu, L., Cumming, G. S., Dixon, J., Dovers, S., Garrick, D., et al. (2019). Realizing resilience for decision-making. Nature Sustainability, 2(10), 907–913.
Dalzell, P., & Adams, T. (1997). Sustainability and management of reef fisheries in the pacific islands. Proceedings of the 8th International Coral Reef Symposium, 2, 2027–2032.
McClanahan, T. R. (2018). Multicriteria estimate of coral reef fishery sustainability. Fish and Fisheries, 19(5), 807–820.
McClanahan, T. R., Maina, J. M., Graham, N. A., & Jones, K. R. (2016). Modeling reef fish biomass, recovery potential, and management priorities in the western Indian Ocean. PLoS One1, 11, 5.
Newton, K., Côté, I. M., Pilling, G. M., Jennings, S., & Dulvy, N. K. (2007). Current and future sustainability of island coral reef fisheries. Current Biology, 17(7), 655–658.
Lamy, T., Galzin, R., Kulbicki, M., De Loma, T. L., & Claudet, J. (2016). Three decades of recurrent declines and recoveries in corals belie ongoing change in fish assemblages. Coral Reefs, 35(1), 293–302.
Bell, J. D., Kronen, M., Vunisea, A., Nash, W. J., Keeble, G., Demmke, A., Pontifex, S. & Andréfouët, S. (2009). Planning the use of fish for food security in the pacific. Marine Policy, 33(1), 64–76.
Leenhardt, P., Lauer, M., Madi Moussa, R., Holbrook, S. J., Rassweiler, A., Schmitt, R. J., & Claudet, J. (2016). Complexities and uncertainties in transitioning small-scale coral reef fisheries. Frontiers in Marine Science, 3, 70.
Aubanel, A. (1993). Evaluation socio-économique de la pêche en milieu corallien dans l’île de moorea. Journal de la Société des Océanistes, 96(1), 49–62.
Brenier, A. (2009). Pertinence des approches participatives pour le suivi écosystémique des pêcheries récifales. PROJET, 2, 1.
Kronen, M., McArdle, B., & Labrosse, P. (2006). Surveying seafood consumption-a methodological analysis. The South Pacific Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 24(1), 12–19.
Yonger, M. (2002). Approche de la pêcherie récifo-lagonaire de Moorea (Polynésie française): évaluation de la production halieutique et de la population de pêcheurs: Ou comment acquérir de l’information sur les acteurs privilégiés engagés dans un processus de gestion de l’espace maritime de Moorea. PhD thesis.
Leenhardt, P., Moussa, R. M., & Galzin, R. (2012). Reef and lagoon fisheries yields in Moorea: A summary of data collected. Secretariat of the Pacific Community Fish Newsletter, 137, 27–35.
Nassiri, A., Thébaud, O., Holbrook, S., Lauer, M., Rassweiler, A., Schmitt, R., & Claudet, J. (2021). Hedonic evaluation of coral reef fish prices on a direct sale market. Marine Policy, 129,.
Moussa, R. M. (2010). Estimation de la taille des poissons lagonaires vendus sous la forme de tui1 en bord de route sur lîle de Moorea (Polynésie Française) par analyse de clichés numériques. Cybium (Paris).
Costello, C., & Kaffine, D. (2016). Private conservation in turf-managed fisheries. Natural Resource Modeling.
Pinca, S., Kronen, M., Friedman, K., Magron, F., Chapman, L., Tardy, E., Pakoa, K., Awira, R., Boblin, P., & Lasi, F. (2010). Regional assessment report: Profiles and results from survey work at 63 sites across 17 Pacific Island countries and territories.
Doyen, L. (2018). Mathematics for scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 23(6), 729–742.
Stenseke, M., & Larigauderie, A. (2018). The role, importance and challenges of social sciences and humanities in the work of the intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 31(sup1), S10–S14.
Shapiro, A., Dentcheva, D., & Ruszczyński, A. (2009). Lectures on stochastic programming: Modeling and theory. SIAM.
Fulton, E. A., Link, J. S., Kaplan, I. C., Savina-Rolland, M., Johnson, P., Ainsworth, C., Horne, P., Gorton, R., Gamble, R. J., Smith, A. D., et al. (2011). Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish and Fisheries, 12(2), 171–188.
Christensen, V., & Walters, C. J. (2004). Ecopath with ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, 172(2–4), 109–139.
Hartwick, J. M. (1977). Intergenerational equity and the investing of rents from exhaustible resources. The American Economic Review, 67(5), 972–974.
Stiglitz, J. E., Sen, A., Fitoussi, J.-P., et al. (2009). Report by the commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress.
Larkin, P. A. (1977). An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 106(1), 1–11.
Grafton, R. Q., Kompas, T., & Hilborn, R. W. (2007). Economics of overexploitation revisited. Science, 318(5856), 1601–1601.
Doyen, L., & Gajardo, P. (2019). Sustainability standards, multicriteria maximin, and viability. Natural Resource Modeling, e12250.
Martin, A., Moritz, C., Siu, G., & Galzin, R. (2017). Acanthuridae and scarinae: Drivers of the resilience of a Polynesian coral reef. Advances in Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, 19.
Mumby, P. J., & Anthony, K. (2015). Resilience metrics to inform ecosystem management under global change with application to coral reefs. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 6(9), 1088–1096.
Mumby, P. J., Hastings, A., & Edwards, H. J. (2007). Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Nature, 450(7166), 98–101.
Roberts, C. M. (1995). Effects of fishing on the ecosystem structure of coral reefs. Conservation Biology, 9(5), 988–995.
Pauly, D., Christensen, V., Dalsgaard, J., Froese, R., & Torres, F. (1998). Fishing down marine food webs. Science, 279(5352), 860–863.
Thiault, L., Kernaléguen, L., Osenberg, C. W., Lisonde Loma, T., Chancerelle, Y., Siu, G., & Claudet, J. (2019). Ecological evaluation of a marine protected area network: A progressive-change BACIPS approach. Ecosphere, 10(2), e02576.
ISPF. (2017). Répartition de la population en polynésie française en 2017. Tech. rep., Institut de la statistique de Polynésie française.
Salvat, B., Aubanel, A., Adjeroud, M., Bouisset, P., Calmet, D., Chancerelle, Y., Cochennec, N., Davies, N., Fougerousse, A., Galzin, R., et al. (2008). Le suivi de l’état des récifs coralliens de polynésie française et leur récente évolution. Revue d’Ecologie de la Terre et de la Vie, 63(1–2), 145–177.
Funding
This work has been carried out with the financial support of the research project ACROSS (ANR-14-CE03-0001). The role of the Belmont Forum through the network SEAVIEW (ANR-14-JPF1-0003) as well as the Cluster of Excellence COTE (ANR-10-LABX-45) through the project NAVIRE was also decisive. The main and unique authors of this study are A. Lagarde, L. Doyen, J. Claudet and O. Thebaud.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception, design, editing and conclusion. AL has written the paper, drawn the plots, and lead the article as a whole. LD and OT have realised the paragraphs, spelling and syntax corrections and modelled the equations with AL. JC and OT have helped the two previous authors on the analyses and conclusions. JC validated the ecological hypothesis. OT validated the economical concepts.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics Approval
The study does not require ethics approval.
Consent to Participate and for Publication
Not applicable
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix
Appendix
See Fig. 12
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Lagarde, A., Doyen, L., Claudet, J. et al. Stochastic Multi-species MSY to Achieve Ecological-Economic Sustainability of a Coral Reef Fishery System in French Polynesia. Environ Model Assess 27, 771–789 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-022-09847-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-022-09847-0