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Realizing certainty in an uncertain future climate: modeling suitable areas for conserving wild Citrus species under different change scenarios in India

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Abstract

Citrus is an important horticultural crop of India and is often prone to diseases, particularly under increased temperature scenarios. For developing disease-resistant Citrus varieties, conservation of wild relatives is extremely important. However, our knowledge on temperature tolerance of these wild relatives of Citrus to varied climate change scenarios is extremely limited. Therefore, we determined the climatic niche of six wild relatives of cultivated Citrus species (C. indica Tanaka, C. karna Rafin., C. latipes (Swingle) Tanaka, C. macroptera Montrouz., C. medica L., and C. sinensis (L.) Osbeck.) and identified the geographical areas in India that would remain climatically stable in future through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Raster data on 19 bioclimatic variables with a resolution of 0.04° were used to generate niche models for each Citrus species that delineated their potential distribution areas. Future species distribution predictions for the year 2050 were made using the climate change scenarios from the most appropriate climate models, i.e., IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Ensemble of current and future projections was used to identify climatically stable areas for each species. Precipitation-related bioclimatic variables were the key climatic determinants for the modeled distribution pattern. The consensus of current and future projections suggests that most areas with stable climates for the species in the future would be available in the northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura. Efforts for in situ conservation and establishment of germplasm banks and citrus orchards may be encouraged in these identified areas.

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Acknowledgements

Financial support received from Water and Power Consultancy Services (WAPCOS), Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India; Government of Arunachal Pradesh; and the Department of Biotechnology (DBT), Government of India is gratefully acknowledged. This manuscript has the institutional communication number CSIR-NBRI_MS/2022/02/07.

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  1. CSIR-National Botanical Research Institute, U.P, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow - 226001, India

    S. K. Barik

  2. Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur-721302, W.B, India

    Mukunda Dev Behera

  3. Plant Ecology & Climate Change Science Division, CSIR-National Botanical Research Institute, U.P, Rana Pratap Marg, Lucknow - 226001, India

    D. Adhikari

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Barik, S.K., Behera, M.D. & Adhikari, D. Realizing certainty in an uncertain future climate: modeling suitable areas for conserving wild Citrus species under different change scenarios in India. Environ Monit Assess 194, 864 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10556-0

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