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Assessing the effect of spatial–temporal droughts on dominant crop yield changes in Central Malawi

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Abstract

Central Malawi has intensely been subjected to different climate-related shocks such as floods, dry spells, and droughts, resulting in decreases in crop yields. Due to their recurrence arising from the effects of climate change, drought characterization, monitoring, and prediction are crucial in guiding agriculture-water users and planners to prepare drought risk management plans and early warning systems. This research analyzed droughts, using multiple drought indices and their impacts on dominant crops over Central Malawi. Forty years of hydro-meteorological data (1977–2017) from nine rain-gauging stations and crop yield data from 1983 to 2017 from four districts were analyzed. The study discovered that drought events in the Agricultural Development Division (ADD) are highly a function of rainfall deficit and high temperatures. The results highlighted that the rainfall patterns in the area are not dependable, calling for the utilization of climate-smart irrigation systems such as drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting technologies. Furthermore, we achieved that crops such as cassava and groundnuts must be promoted to withstand the long water stress duration. These crops also have a multiplier effect; hence, they can enhance food security in the region. This study recommends that using more robust variables in drought analysis studies is necessary for effective drought monitoring and early warning systems. In corroboration with disaster management NGOs, it is recommended that the government should be proactive in developing integrated drought management policies and planning strategies for drought adaptation and mitigation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Meteorological Department, and Kasungu ADD in Malawi for providing hydrological, crop yield, meteorological, and socioeconomic profile data, respectively.

Funding

This work would not be possible without funds awarded by PAUWES (Pan African University of Water and Energy Sciences).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Water and Energy Sciences Including Climate Change, Pan African University, University of Tlemcen, B.P. 119, 13000, Tlemcen, Algeria

    Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa, Cherifa Abdelbaki & Abdellatif Zerga

  2. School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

    Nasrin Salehnia

  3. Center for Cryospheric Sciences, Seoul National University, Siheung, South Korea

    Nasrin Salehnia

  4. Santander Meteorology Group, Dpt. of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Cantabria, Santander, Spain

    Rodrigo Manzanas

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  1. Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa
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  4. Cherifa Abdelbaki
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  5. Abdellatif Zerga
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa and Nasrin Salehnia performed material preparation, data collection/analysis, conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, and investigation. Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa and Nasrin Salehnia wrote the first draft of the manuscript and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Nasrin Salehnia supervised this research. Final review and editing were performed by Rodrigo Manzanas. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Nasrin Salehnia.

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Chikabvumbwa, S.R., Salehnia, N., Manzanas, R. et al. Assessing the effect of spatial–temporal droughts on dominant crop yield changes in Central Malawi. Environ Monit Assess 194, 63 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09709-4

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