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Spatiotemporal variability and time series trends of rainfall over northwestern parts of Ethiopia: the case of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone

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Abstract

This study examined the variability and trend of rainfall over Horro Guduru Wollega Zone. Studies such as this have paramount importance in countries and areas where rain-fed agriculture is predominant. Datasets for analysis were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) from 1987 to 2016 and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRPS) 1987–2019 with the station portal. Monthly rainfall with temporal variability ranging from 9.77 to 141.93% was observed. High variable (CV > 30%) and less variable (CV < 20%) rainfall was observed in the CHIRPS data records. Rainfall during most months of the last 30 and 33 years showed a decreasing trend. Rainfalls with temporal variability ranging from 12.7 to 75.92% and from 8.11 to 43.45% were observed during the 3-month seasons, respectively. Rainfall over the 3-month seasons of the last 30 and 33 years showed a decreasing trend. The average total rainfall ranging from 107.203 to 1016.82 mm and from 122.8 to 1147.9 mm, with variability from 9.163 to 55.7% and from 7.831 to 36.68% were observed during the Belg, Kiremt, and Bega seasons of the last 30 and 33 years, respectively. A decrease in rainfall was tested over these three seasons of the last 30 and 33 years. Significantly different (P < 0.05) and less variable (CV < 20%) annual total rainfall was recorded at 24 stations over 30 years. Declining annual rainfall was observed over 30 and 33 years. Non-significantly different (P < 0.05) and less variable (CV < 20%) average decadal rainfall ranging from 1342.6 to 1372.8 mm was observed during the last 33 years. The study area had experienced a rainfall with decreasing trends almost over all time scales. These might have been resulting in failure of agricultural production that necessitates developing and implementing systematic planning and management activities in the crop calendar under the face of changing rainfall patterns.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We truly acknowledge the assistance by the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) in giving all the required data sets without any hesitation. Addis Ababa University of Science and Technology and Jimma University also deserve our gratitude for their unlimited assistance for availing all required facilities for the success of this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources Management, Jimma University College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Jimma, Oromia, Ethiopia

    Belay Ejigu Feke & Debela Hunde

  2. Institute of Geophysics, Space, Science and Atmosphere, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Tadesse Terefe

  3. Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Kassahun Ture

Authors
  1. Belay Ejigu Feke
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Correspondence to Belay Ejigu Feke.

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Appendix. Basic statistics of observed monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal total rainfall over the study period

Appendix. Basic statistics of observed monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal total rainfall over the study period

Month

1987 to 2016

1987 to 2019

Mean

Std

Min

Max

CV (%)

Mean

Std

Min

Max

CV (%)

Jan

4.37

5.03

0

21.375

57.874

4.262

2.34

0.6

9.5

54.89

Feb

5.68

7.1811

0

29.625

126.45

11.81

6.821

2.5

38.4

57.77

Mar

32.431

26.314

0.375

92.96

81.141

7.75

4.65

2.3

21.1

59.95

Apr

47.79

33.31

3.96

135.08

69.703

30.84

15.72

10.6

68.5

50.97

May

147.16

73.14

5.083

280.08

49.7

138.9

55.96

41.1

230.6

40.29

June

225.4

34.545

153.9

298.17

15.326

242.1

27.43

201.2

299.5

11.33

July

298.02

29.975

253.8

372.17

10.058

310.1

45.54

229.6

378.9

14.69

Aug

287.72

28.12

238.2

353.38

9.77

365.9

38.14

296.8

428.2

10.421

Sept

205.68

33.92

144.2

271.54

16.49

229.4

38.86

155.8

329.7

16.94

Oct

76.314

54.921

8.375

206.92

71.97

97.78

39.8

41.8

190.1

40.71

Nov

18.336

15.732

0.792

68.375

85.8

16.43

10.31

4.8

62.78

52.3

Dec

8.186

11.62

0

53.542

141.93

4.342

2.773

0

13.9

63.85

Winter (DJF)

18.232

13.841

2.21

59.5

75.92

20.41

8.87

5.1

51.1

43.45

Spring (MAM)

227.38

86.42

63.38

371.21

38.01

177.5

62.84

65

270.8

35.41

Summer (JJA)

811.14

72.8

676.01

984.92

12.7

918.2

74.5

766

1060.6

8.11

autumn (SON)

300.33

66.6

179.3

407.71

22.2

343.6

59.15

233.9

457.8

17.22

Belg (FMAM)

233.06

84.51

78.46

378.08

36.3

189.5

62.8

67.5

286.1

33.2

Kiremt (JJAS)

1016.8

93.2

861.3

1256.5

9.163

1147.9

89.9

987.5

1312.3

7.831

Bega (ONDJ)

107.2

59.7

30.13

250.17

55.7

122.8

45.05

59.8

232

36.7

Annual

1357.1

121.11

1149

1618.9

8.9242

1459.7

139.7

1159.4

1711.2

9.6

1987–1996

1342.6

94.003

1188.1

1527.1

7.0344

1476.7

127.75

1326.7

1711.2

8.6

1997–2006

1372.8

117.46

1211.7

1618.9

8.6

1418.9

176.3

1159.4

1687.8

12.4

2007–2016

1355.9

155.03

1149

1573.9

11.434

1495.2

115.03

1270.4

1624.1

7.73

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Feke, B.E., Terefe, T., Ture, K. et al. Spatiotemporal variability and time series trends of rainfall over northwestern parts of Ethiopia: the case of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone. Environ Monit Assess 193, 367 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09141-8

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