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Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

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Acknowledgments

We wish to express our appreciation to the United States Geological Survey for making Landsat data freely available for this study. Equally appreciated is the Climatic Research Unit for the SPEI and raw precipitation data that was extracted from Climate Explorer. Without this data, this study would have been impossible. Our gratitude also goes to the Free State Provincial Department of Rural Development, who were the major source of land use data. Lastly, we thank the South African National Space Agency for the digital elevation model from which altitudinal data were extracted.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of the Free State, Phuthaditjhaban, South Africa

    Geoffrey Mukwada & Desmond Manatsa

  2. Afromontane Research Unit, University of the Free State, Phuthaditjhaba, South Africa

    Geoffrey Mukwada & Desmond Manatsa

  3. Department of Geography, Bindura University of Science, Bindura, Zimbabwe

    Desmond Manatsa

  4. Earth System Physics, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Desmond Manatsa

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  1. Geoffrey Mukwada
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Correspondence to Geoffrey Mukwada.

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Mukwada, G., Manatsa, D. Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. Environ Monit Assess 190, 358 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-6660-0

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