Abstract
Excessive greenhouse gas emissions might be the major culprit for environmental degradation, which have direct and indirect adverse impacts in various ways. As the largest emitter of carbon emissions, China suffered great harm from climate change during the past 40 years. Therefore, it becomes necessary to study the impact of carbon emissions on health issues and their potential mechanism. Using the panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2002 and 2017, this study employes and extends the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and mediating effect model to analyze the direct and indirect effects of carbon emissions. The main results are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions has a certain negative impact on public health, which would increase with the rise of temperature. (2) The increase in carbon emissions has a more significant negative effect on health with the average temperature exceeding 17.75 °C, indicating that the temperature has a threshold effect. (3) The potential health risks become higher with the development of urbanization, but there is no obvious spillover effect in the health consequences. The results remain robust after controlling other factors. This study supplements the literature of climate governance and human health, potentially contributing to the next stage of high-quality and sustainable development.
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Availability of data and material
All the datasets used in the current study are openly available on China Energy Statistics Yearbook, China Public Health Statistics Yearbook, China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistics Yearbook, and International Geoscience Information Network Center of Columbia University.
Code availability
Not Applicable.
Notes
Retrieved from World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-assess-global-temperatures-coming-five-years. Last accessed 20 April 2021.
Retrieved from World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/topics/climate/zh/. Last accessed 20 April 2021.
Retrieved from International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/. Last accessed 20 April 2021.
Our conclusion “an average annual temperature greater than 17.75 °C could be seen as ‘high temperature’” is consistent with Zheng et al. (2019). They found the fact that there was an inverted U relationship between temperature and people’s expressed happiness, and the calculated turning point is 17.5 °C.
The results of 300 and 500 bootstrap replications were in consistent with that of 1000. Due to the space limitations, only the results of 1000 bootstrap replications are shown in Table 3.
The inverse geographic distance weight matrix (W2) and the inverse geographic distance squared weight matrix (W3) were also used to eliminate the differences in results due to the spatial weight matrix. Our basic results remained robust after using these two weight matrixes (W2 and W3). Due to limited space, the results were not shown.
Retrieved from Aliyun Map Selector, the selector provides China’s latest polygon geospatial data in GeoJson format. http://datav.aliyun.com/tools/atlas/. Last accessed 10 April 2021.
Retrieved from Ministry of Civil Affairs of China. The latest administrative division code document in China is The Administrative Divisions Code of the People's Republic of China 2018. http://www.mca.gov.cn/article/sj/xzqh/1980/201903/20190300014989.shtml. Last accessed 10 April 2021.
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The study is supported by the Youth Academic Team in Humanities and Social Sciences of Wuhan University (Grant No. 4103–413100001).
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XT contributed to supervision, conceptualization, writing—original draft preparation, and writing—review and editing. YL* helped in methodology, writing—original draft preparation, formal analysis, and writing—review and editing. HD* performed data curation and writing—original draft preparation. YX* contributed to resources, visualization, and investigation. ZZ contributed to writing—review and editing.
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Tan, X., Liu, Y., Dong, H. et al. The health consequences of greenhouse gas emissions: a potential pathway. Environ Geochem Health 44, 2955–2974 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-021-01142-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-021-01142-3