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New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey

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Abstract

This paper provides new insights into the growth-maximizing size of government in Turkey. Unlike previous studies that traditionally use the share of government spending in GDP as a proxy variable of government size, in this paper we consider a fairly large number of proxy variables ranging from the share of tax revenues in GDP to the share of public investment in total investment. After reviewing the potential non-linear relationship between government size and growth, we estimate various thresholds for government size that maximize growth. To this end, we use the threshold autoregressive model proposed by Hansen (1996: 413-430; 2000: 575-603)) and apply it to Turkey’s annual time-series data for the period from 1974 to 2019. Overall, we arrive at the following main result: Government size is non-linearly related to growth, confirming the existence of a growth-maximizing threshold for any measure of government size, beyond which growth tends to slow down as government size continues to increase. More precisely, the results show that the estimated thresholds for government size lie within the range of 4.28–15.19%, depending on the definition or proxy variable representing government size.

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Notes

  1. For example, government consumption expenditure is a widely used measure of government size in empirical studies. As Christie (2014) argues, this measure does not take into account public capital formation and therefore cannot fully capture the productivity-enhancing effects of services provided by the government.

  2. In addition, see Table 7 in the Appendix for various proxy variables used for government size in empirical studies on the relationship between government size and growth.

  3. The BARS curve stands for the initial letters of the last names of Robert J. Barro, Richard K. Armey, Richard W. Rahn, and Gerald W. Scully and its horizontal axis denotes the ratio of government spending to GDP as a proxy variable of the size of government, while the vertical axis stands for the growth rate of real GDP per capita. The BARS curve has important implications for diagnosing the relative share of the public versus the private sector in an economy and government policy in that direction by estimating the optimal government size that maximizes growth.

  4. These are generally considered to be the core areas of a government.

  5. The neoclassical growth model is also called the “exogenous growth model” in the macroeconomic literature. Since it was developed primarily by Solow (1956), it also named just as the “Solow growth model”.

  6. It should be noted here, however, that Scully (1991), in a wide-ranging report by the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA Report No: 159), examined the relationship between tax rates and growth and hence the growth-maximizing tax rate, in 103 countries between 1960 and 1980. The author documented that the growth rate is maximized when the size of government averages 19.3%. The author further argued that the specific growth-maximizing tax rates are 11.9% for income tax, 4.6% for sales tax and 9.4% for trade taxes. In contrast, Scully (1991) is a study conducted independently of Barro’s (1990) model to examine the relationship between the two variables.

  7. The government expenditure data we used correspond to the functional classification of government expenditure. This is because the functional classification of the central government budget allows us not only to analyze the effects of total government expenditure on growth but also to evaluate them according to their detailed functions.

  8. The definition of the variables and the data sources can be found in Table 8.

  9. Table 9 provides a detailed justification of the variables that we used in our estimation model.

  10. See the 2021 Government Accounts Report released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), p.3. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Government-Accounts-2021-45522 (access: 20 December 2022).

  11. For the quadratic fit scatterplots of government size and real GDP per capita growth rate, see Figure 1.

  12. See Feder (1983) and Ram (1986) for more details on derivation and interpretation of models and parameters.

  13. It is generally assumed that government services proportionally affect the efficiency units of capital and labor either positively or negatively (see Engen and Skinner 1992; Lin 1994). By providing goods and services, the government imparts its indirect or “spillover” effects to private factors of production (see Ram 1986; Barro 1991).

  14. Ram (1986) uses government expenditure as a measure of the size of government. In this study, however, we consider taxes as a measure of government size in addition to government expenditure. We also extend Ram’s (1986) model to include other important control variables that have the potential to explain long-run growth. For more details in this regard, see Sect. 4.1.

  15. For more details, see Chen and Lee (2005).

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The authors thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insight, valuable and constructive comments, and suggestions. The responsibility for any errors in the paper rests solely with the authors.

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Table 7 A far-reaching review of the empirical literature on the relationship between growth and government size*.

7,

Table 8 Definition of the variables and data sources.

8 and

Table 9 Justification of the variables in detail.

9.

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Şen, H., Kaya, A. & Durucan, A. New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey. Econ Change Restruct 56, 2243–2296 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09510-y

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