Abstract
This paper decomposes the canonical model of International Environmental Agreements (Barrett in Oxf Econ Pap 46:878–894, 1994) into three effects: externality, cost-effectiveness and timing. The externality and timing effects are countervailing forces on abatement levels of greenhouse gases. The Paradox of Cooperation in the three-stage Stackelberg game is explained by showing that when the gains to cooperation are small the timing effect dominates the externality effect and large coalitions are stable. The timing effect has the greatest impact when the high benefit nations have low abatement cost. The cost-effectiveness effect arises from asymmetry and generates the need for an agreement with transfers. The cost-effectiveness effect is largest when the high benefit nations are high cost. This creates a larger difference in the marginal abatement cost of the last unit of abatement in the absence of an agreement. Numerical examples illustrate how the parameters and effects interact to result in outcomes ranging from no to full participation.
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Notes
In Barrett (1994) the aggregate payoff function is monotonic in global abatement, hence one can interpret the paradox in terms of both abatement and payoff gains, as in his Tables 3 and 4.
The timing effect on signatory and non-signatory abatement can be seen in Table 1 of Barrett (1994), where the first three signatories reduce abatement relative to the non-cooperative outcome.
Note that if \(s=n=1\), then there is no public goods problem and all three effects are zero. Specifically, if \(s=n=1\), then \(q_{i}^{ne}=q_{i}^{o}=q_{i}^{l}=q_{i}^{f}=Q^{ne}=Q^{o}=\frac{a}{1+\gamma }\).
Section 4 identifies the timing effect by comparing asymmetric Cournot and Stackelberg coalitions with the same members.
There is a vast Industrial Organization (IO) literature on leadership but, to the best of my knowledge, there is never a situation where \(q_{i}^{l}=q_{i}^{f}\) with ex ante identical profit maximizing firms. In these IO models the timing effect is positive and the externality effect is negative, opposite signs from the public goods model in this paper. In IO models leaders exploit their timing advantage by increasing market share (a positive timing effect) and this lowers the market price on all other firms (a negative externality). In standard IO models of symmetric profit maximizing firms leadership always implies greater output and market share \(q_{i}^{l}>q_{i}^{f}\). Long and Flaaten (2011) find in a fisheries model that a resource conservation coalition harvests more as a Stackelberg leader since the externality effect is negative.
The asymmetric Cournot coalition abatement solutions were first published on p. 24 of my Ph.D. dissertation in 2002 (https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/people.uwm.edu/dist/5/258/files/2019/08/Dissertation.pdf) and also appear in Caparrós and Péreau (2017).
When all nations are signatories the solution in (34) is the social optimum in (8), \(Q^{o}=\frac{ab\sum \nolimits _{i\in N}\frac{ 1}{ci}}{1+b\sum \nolimits _{i\in N}\frac{1}{ci}}\). When all nations are non-signatories, or when there is a singleton Nash coalition, the solution in (34) is the Nash equilibrium in (7), \(Q^{ne}= \frac{ab\sum \nolimits _{i\in N}\theta _{i}}{1+b\sum \nolimits _{i\in N}\theta _{i}}\) since \(\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\frac{1}{ci}\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\alpha _{i}=\theta _{j}\) when j is the only signatory.
The stability conditions are written in terms of Cournot coalitions and are identical for Stackelberg coalitions with \(S^{L}\) replacing S.
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Appendix
Appendix
A1: This appendix reproduces the asymmetric Stackelberg coalition results from McGinty (2007) to compare with the new results.
The Stackelberg equilibrium signatory abatement from McGinty (2007) is
The non-signatory level of abatement is
The global quantity of Stackelberg abatement is \(Q(S^{L})=Q^{L}(S^{L})+Q^{F}(S^{L})\).
A2: Proofs
Proposition 1
With non-trivial \((s>1)\) Cournot coalitions of symmetric nations, joining the IEA always means increasing abatement, i.e., the externality effect is strictly positive.
Proof
A non-signatory outside of an agreement with \(s-1\) signatories abates \(q_{i}^{t}(s-1)\) from (20). After joining the agreement there are s members each of which abates \(q_{i}^{s}(s)\) from (19).
where the denominator \(\Delta _{1}\equiv\)\(\left[ n\gamma +n-(s-1)+(s-1)^{2} \right] \left[ n\gamma +n-s+s^{2}\right]\) is positive for all \(n\ge s\ge 1\). \(\square\)
Proposition 2
The timing effect in Stackelberg coalitions implies that a single signatory exploits the leadership advantage by (i) reducing abatement relative to the Nash equilibrium, which (ii) induces followers to increase abatement relative to the Nash equilibrium.
Proof
(i) Using (12), the definition \(\gamma \equiv \frac{c}{ b}\) and (24), \(q^{ne}-q_{|_{s=1}}^{l}\) is
where \(\Delta _{2}\equiv n\left( b+c\right) \left[ \left[ cn+b(n-1)\right] ^{2}+bcn\right] >0\) for all \(n>1\).
Then (ii), using (12) with \(\gamma \equiv \frac{c}{b}\) and (24), evaluating \(q_{|_{s=1}}^{f}-q^{ne}\) results in
\(\square\)
Proposition 3
The timing and externality effects exactly offset when \(s={\hat{s}}\). When \(s<{\hat{s}}\)the timing effect dominates and when \(s>{\hat{s}}\)the externality effect dominates, i.e., for all coalitions with s members (i) \(Q(S^{L})\lesseqqgtr Q^{ne}\)(ii) \(q^{f}\gtreqless q^{ne}\)(iii) \(q^{l}\lesseqgtr q^{ne}\)if and only if \(s\lesseqgtr {\hat{s}}\).
Proof
Proof of (i) \(Q(S^{L})\lesseqqgtr Q^{ne}\) if and only if \(s\lesseqgtr \hat{s}\). Using (23) and (12) with \(\gamma \equiv \frac{c}{b}\).
where \(\Delta _{3}\equiv \left( b+c\right) \left[ \left[ cn+b(n-s)\right] ^{2}+bcns^{2}\right] >0\).
Proof of (ii) \(q^{f}\gtreqless q^{ne}\) if and only if \(s\lesseqgtr {\hat{s}}\) using (22) and (12).
Proof of (iii) \(q^{l}\lesseqgtr q^{ne}\) if and only if \(s\lesseqgtr {\hat{s}}\) .
This follows directly from (i) and (ii). If \(Q(S^{L})\lesseqqgtr Q^{ne}\) and \(q^{f}\gtreqless q^{ne}\) if and only if \(s\lesseqgtr {\hat{s}}\) then \(q^{l}\lesseqgtr q^{ne}\) when \(s\lesseqgtr {\hat{s}}\).
Of course if \(q^{l}=q^{f}\) then they must both equal \(q^{ne}\) since this is where the positive externality effect and the negative timing effect exactly offset. It is easily verified that \(q^{l}({\hat{s}})=q^{f}({\hat{s}})=q^{ne}\). \(\square\)
Proposition 4
For all possible subcoalitions (i.e., partial participation) with \(1\le s<n\)members Cournot coalitions compared to Stackelberg coalitions result in (i) higher global abatement, \(Q(S)>Q(S^{L})\), (ii) higher signatory abatement \(q_{i}^{s}(S)>q_{i}^{l}(S^{L})\), and (iii) lower non-signatory abatement, \(q_{i}^{t}(S)<q_{i}^{f}(S^{L})\).
Proof
For a given set of coalition members, \(S=S^{L}\), and (i) using (34) and (40),
where \(\Delta _{4}\equiv \left[ 1+b\left( \sum \nolimits _{i\in T}\theta _{i}+\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\frac{1}{c_{i}}\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\alpha _{i}\right) \right] \left\{ \left[ 1+b\sum \nolimits _{i\in T}\theta _{i} \right] ^{2}+b\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\frac{1}{c_{i}}\sum \nolimits _{i\in S}\alpha _{i}\right\} >0\).
(ii) Using (32) and (38) \(q_{i}^{s}(S)-q_{i}^{l}(S^{L})>0\) since
The numerators are identical and the denominator of \(q_{i}^{l}(S^{L})\) is greater since \(\left( 1+b\sum \nolimits _{j\in T}\theta _{j}\right) ^{2}>\)\(1+b\sum \nolimits _{j\in T}\theta _{j}\) for \(\left| T\right| >0\).
(iii) Using (33) and (39) \(\frac{q_{i}^{t}(S)}{q_{i}^{f}(S^{L})}\) is
\(\square\)
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McGinty, M. Leadership and Free-Riding: Decomposing and Explaining the Paradox of Cooperation in International Environmental Agreements. Environ Resource Econ 77, 449–474 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00505-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00505-1