Abstract
The paper presents an investigation of agroecosystem dynamics with an application to wheat yield data in England over the period 1885–2012. The analysis relies on a Threshold Quantile Autoregressive model. The model allows for lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with the values taken by the lagged variables. The analysis documents the dynamics and persistence of yield adjustments to shocks. The estimates indicate the presence of dynamic instability in the lower quantile of the distribution. The analysis shows that, after controlling for the role of technological trend, wheat yield exhibits resilience to adverse weather shocks.
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Notes
For a comprehensive analysis of different drivers to transitional dynamics, see Bretschger and Pittel (2008).
According to Levin et al. (1998), resilience should be the preferred way to think about sustainability.
Note that much research has been conducted on agricultural productivity and its determinants. For example, the effects of weather shocks on crop yields has been investigated by Lobell and Field (2007) Lobell et al. (2011), Nelson et al. (2010), Robertson et al. (2013), Schlenker and Roberts (2009), Tack et al. (2012), Willenbockel (2012), among others. But these analyses have typically been conducted in a static context and do not provide information about dynamic adjustments or resilience. To our knowledge, the only exception is the study of Di Falco and Chavas (2008) on the resilience of cereals agroecosystem using dynamic panel data.
Extending the dynamics to higher moments has also been done in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models (e.g., Bollerslev 1986). Other extensions have explored nonlinear dynamics (e.g., Pesaran and Potter 1992; Potter 1995), including threshold autoregressive models (Tong 1990; Cao and Tsay 1992), smooth transition autoregressive models (Terasvita and Anderson 1992) and Markov switching models (Hamilton 1989).
Previous literature on threshold autoregression has often focused on two regimes defined according to a single lagged variable (e.g., Tong 1990; Cai and Stander 2008; Galvao et al. 2011). By allowing for multiple regimes across multiple lagged variables, our specification imposes fewer restrictions on dynamics.
The case of discrete distribution is a special case. When \(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t}\) can take s possible values {\(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{1}, {\ldots }, \hbox {a}_\mathrm{s}\)}, the transition probability from \(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t-1} = \hbox {a}_\mathrm{i}\) to \(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t} = \hbox {a}_\mathrm{j}\) is \(\hbox {P}(\hbox {i, j}) = \hbox {Prob}[\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t} = \hbox {a}_\mathrm{j} {\vert } \hbox {w}_\mathrm{t-1} = \hbox {a}_\mathrm{i}, \hbox {w}_\mathrm{t} = \hbox {h}(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t-1}, \hbox {e}_\mathrm{t}), \hbox {i}, \hbox {j} \in \hbox {J} = \{1, {\ldots }, \hbox {s}\}\). Letting \(\hbox {p}_\mathrm{j,t} = \hbox {Prob}[\hbox {w}_\mathrm{t} = \hbox {a}_\mathrm{j}], \hbox {j} \in \hbox {J}\), the dynamics is then represented by the Markov chain: \(\hbox {p}_\mathrm{j,t}={\Sigma }_{\mathrm{i} \in \mathrm{J}} \hbox {P}(\hbox {i, j}) \hbox {p}_\mathrm{i,t-1}, \hbox {j} \in \hbox {J}\) (e.g., Billingsley 1961; Meyn and Tweedie 1993).
In addition, under a deterministic dynamic system, the largest Lyapunov exponent defined as \(\hbox {LE}(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{0}) = \hbox {lim}_{\mathrm{t}\rightarrow \mathrm{\infty }} (1/\hbox {t}) \sum _\mathrm{i=1}^\mathrm{t} \hbox { ln}({\vert } {\uplambda }_\mathrm{1}(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{i}){\vert }\) measures the rate of expansion of the state trajectory along a forward path starting at \(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{0}\). Under some regularity conditions, a deterministic system is asymptotically stable starting at \(\hbox {z}_\mathrm{0}\) if \(\hbox {LE}(\hbox {w}_\mathrm{0}) < 0\); and it is chaotic if \(\hbox {LE}(\hbox {z}_\mathrm{0}) > 0\).
The Appendix also presents monthly rainfall and temperature in England during the period 1885–2012, data obtained from the Met Office Hadley Centre (2013).
The BIC criterion is to choose the model specification that minimizes \(\hbox {BIC} = - 2 \ln (\hbox {L}) + \hbox {k} \ln (\hbox {n})\), where L is the likelihood function of the estimated model, k is the number of parameters and n is the number of observations (Schwarz 1978).
The BIC criterion was 133.6, 128.2, 131.1, 135.9 and 140.6 for an AR(1), AR(2), AR(3), AR(4) and AR(5), respectively, with a minimum achieved for an AR(2).
We treat the four regimes \((\hbox {S}_\mathrm{1}, \hbox {S}_\mathrm{2}, \hbox {S}_\mathrm{3}, \hbox {S}_\mathrm{4})\) as given. This simplifies the analysis and avoids identification issues between the parameters and the thresholds used to define regimes. Note that the case of quantile regression with unknown threshold points is analyzed by Oka and Qu (2011) and Galvao et al. (2011).
The BIC criterion was 140,6, 131.1, 131.3, 135.8 and 140.1 for an AR(1), AR(2), AR(3), AR(4) and AR(5), respectively, with a minimum achieved for an AR(2).
The results reported in Table 4 assume linear temperature and rainfall effects. This structural analysis was also done in the presence of quadratic temperature and rainfall effects, thus capturing nonlinear weather impacts (e.g., Schlenker and Roberts 2009). Introducing nonlinear weather effects did not affect the qualitative conclusions presented below. These structural estimates are available from the authors upon request.
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We would like to thank useful comments from two anonymous reviewers and the associate editor on an earlier draft of the paper. We also thank Elvezio Ronchetti for suggestions. This research was supported in part by a Graduate School research grant from the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Appendix
Appendix
Data on monthly rainfall (mm) in England, 1885--2012
Year | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1885 | 68.3 | 93.1 | 49.5 | 63.2 | 80.1 | 62.5 | 24.5 | 61.2 | 127.1 | 147.6 | 98.5 | 42 |
1886 | 120.2 | 29.5 | 77.6 | 59 | 123.1 | 31.9 | 105.3 | 52.2 | 72.1 | 135.6 | 99.4 | 145.2 |
1887 | 71.8 | 24.1 | 49.8 | 36.6 | 54 | 20.8 | 38.1 | 53.4 | 94.2 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 69 |
1888 | 39 | 38.9 | 97.2 | 49.8 | 35.7 | 73.9 | 156.6 | 86.3 | 34.2 | 43.5 | 150.1 | 73.1 |
1889 | 38.2 | 60.2 | 78 | 80.3 | 94.8 | 23.2 | 87.8 | 98.3 | 58.8 | 127.9 | 43.5 | 58.2 |
1890 | 106.3 | 29 | 61 | 44.5 | 68.1 | 79.8 | 87.1 | 97.5 | 45.3 | 56.2 | 117.2 | 34.4 |
1891 | 67.2 | 3.6 | 59 | 45 | 83.2 | 53.9 | 84.6 | 149.3 | 65.6 | 162.3 | 90.7 | 132.2 |
1892 | 53.5 | 58.1 | 29.5 | 38 | 60.9 | 80.5 | 67.4 | 100.5 | 87.5 | 131.6 | 69.2 | 52.5 |
1893 | 57.8 | 103.5 | 15.8 | 9.9 | 45.8 | 38.9 | 104.4 | 61.4 | 58.2 | 98.6 | 74 | 87.9 |
1894 | 89 | 85.8 | 56.1 | 55 | 65.8 | 72.8 | 102.4 | 88.7 | 50.1 | 120.8 | 114.2 | 79.4 |
1895 | 100.9 | 11.1 | 73.9 | 55.2 | 17.7 | 38.1 | 116.9 | 92.4 | 23.3 | 113.3 | 122.2 | 90.8 |
1896 | 36 | 24.4 | 99.6 | 30.4 | 12 | 69.5 | 52.5 | 62.6 | 160.7 | 113 | 40.7 | 137.3 |
1897 | 61.7 | 90.8 | 108.8 | 69.3 | 39.8 | 77.7 | 36.5 | 117.5 | 93.9 | 38.2 | 69.2 | 112.4 |
1898 | 40.6 | 51.8 | 40.1 | 57.9 | 88.9 | 55.9 | 25.2 | 85.1 | 27.8 | 117.5 | 87.5 | 92.1 |
1899 | 119.3 | 75.5 | 35.6 | 79.8 | 70.1 | 43.2 | 49.8 | 39.9 | 92.9 | 81.6 | 79.2 | 73.2 |
1900 | 118 | 131.7 | 30.7 | 43.7 | 46.6 | 85.2 | 48.1 | 112 | 31.8 | 104.6 | 99.2 | 123.6 |
1901 | 56.3 | 41.7 | 70.4 | 73.8 | 35 | 57.2 | 71.9 | 68 | 56 | 72.3 | 66.5 | 136.1 |
1902 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 72.5 | 71.5 | 57.1 | 93.7 | 48.5 | 78.2 | 75.2 | 71.6 |
1903 | 96.7 | 38.8 | 109.5 | 58.5 | 83.7 | 82.9 | 103.9 | 122.7 | 102.9 | 218.1 | 70.1 | 72.5 |
1904 | 99 | 112.1 | 50.7 | 46.1 | 74.4 | 32.8 | 74.9 | 82.4 | 58.1 | 44.4 | 62.7 | 77.6 |
1905 | 38.8 | 36.3 | 102.4 | 72.4 | 22.5 | 81.5 | 37.4 | 105.4 | 57 | 67.1 | 111.9 | 31.8 |
1906 | 135.7 | 78.7 | 57.6 | 29.4 | 84 | 66.2 | 34 | 70.1 | 33.7 | 146.9 | 109.8 | 80.1 |
1907 | 38.5 | 46.8 | 43.2 | 81.3 | 91.4 | 91 | 67.3 | 73.9 | 22.6 | 152.6 | 78 | 112.5 |
1908 | 55.7 | 54.6 | 91.9 | 76.2 | 60.1 | 36.1 | 85.4 | 94.8 | 69 | 56.2 | 48.6 | 78.2 |
1909 | 46.3 | 26.8 | 106.5 | 64.3 | 45.8 | 84.6 | 91.7 | 79 | 77.6 | 141.6 | 33 | 135.4 |
1910 | 90.6 | 103.4 | 27.2 | 68.9 | 63.9 | 70 | 83.7 | 106.4 | 16.4 | 100 | 128 | 138.5 |
1911 | 39.5 | 62 | 57.9 | 46.8 | 37.2 | 79.1 | 15.8 | 54.9 | 64.2 | 95.9 | 116.2 | 169.6 |
1912 | 107.2 | 60.9 | 118.4 | 9 | 56.6 | 122.4 | 94.4 | 192.9 | 50 | 98.7 | 76.3 | 111.8 |
1913 | 124.4 | 34 | 106.8 | 98.2 | 68.6 | 39.9 | 32.6 | 41.9 | 65.6 | 105.5 | 96.7 | 54.2 |
1914 | 48.6 | 82.1 | 119.7 | 37 | 47.9 | 61.8 | 94.2 | 61.5 | 48.5 | 68.9 | 109.5 | 190.8 |
1915 | 108.7 | 123.5 | 35.4 | 35.7 | 69.8 | 35 | 126 | 76.7 | 47 | 72.7 | 75 | 184.9 |
1916 | 56.6 | 132 | 107.1 | 47.4 | 71.7 | 70.4 | 55.4 | 88.8 | 51.9 | 138.9 | 111.9 | 95.9 |
1917 | 58.4 | 31.9 | 68.4 | 54.3 | 60.7 | 65.8 | 65.1 | 172 | 55.5 | 129.6 | 60.3 | 41.1 |
1918 | 91.2 | 61.6 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 58.5 | 30.9 | 110 | 62.9 | 189.5 | 69.1 | 66.3 | 122.5 |
1919 | 122.4 | 79 | 120 | 66.3 | 25.4 | 36.5 | 57.9 | 79 | 52.4 | 62.3 | 77.8 | 146.7 |
1920 | 108.3 | 43 | 82 | 116.5 | 74.6 | 66.9 | 132.4 | 50.6 | 71.1 | 70.9 | 44.9 | 92.1 |
1921 | 107.2 | 10.2 | 58.5 | 33.3 | 46.5 | 10.3 | 29.3 | 93.5 | 40.9 | 52.2 | 70.9 | 76.2 |
1922 | 109.4 | 89.7 | 68 | 82.3 | 34 | 40.4 | 126.3 | 100.3 | 79.4 | 33.4 | 48.7 | 116.4 |
1923 | 63.5 | 152.7 | 52.8 | 70.6 | 69.8 | 19.4 | 79.4 | 92.7 | 82.5 | 137.4 | 92.3 | 100 |
1924 | 94.1 | 27.6 | 37.6 | 72.9 | 122.4 | 67.2 | 118.4 | 98.5 | 114.6 | 132.7 | 72.8 | 123.9 |
1925 | 82.3 | 124.2 | 32.8 | 74.2 | 96.5 | 4.3 | 81.3 | 91 | 98.6 | 106.7 | 76.6 | 98.8 |
1926 | 114.1 | 80.3 | 24.5 | 65.2 | 69.3 | 81.1 | 76.2 | 66 | 58.1 | 87.6 | 157.9 | 24.5 |
1927 | 94.7 | 80.5 | 89 | 59.2 | 37.8 | 101.3 | 96 | 139.5 | 154 | 70.8 | 101.9 | 83.5 |
1928 | 160.3 | 76.3 | 78.6 | 39.2 | 40 | 97 | 60.3 | 95.2 | 29.8 | 144.4 | 112.1 | 90 |
1929 | 49.1 | 31.5 | 8 | 34.9 | 62.6 | 46.7 | 66.4 | 71.8 | 23.6 | 124.3 | 195.9 | 179 |
1930 | 125.1 | 26.1 | 65.3 | 71 | 62 | 33.1 | 109.1 | 104.4 | 110.8 | 92.4 | 128.1 | 97.5 |
1931 | 79.6 | 79.1 | 26 | 93.8 | 93.5 | 93.2 | 108.4 | 116.8 | 77.9 | 32.1 | 135.6 | 45.8 |
1932 | 90 | 8.9 | 59.7 | 83 | 129.6 | 35.6 | 99.9 | 48.8 | 93.9 | 162.3 | 61 | 49.9 |
1933 | 66.9 | 95.8 | 75 | 36.8 | 55.8 | 56.6 | 63.7 | 33.3 | 60.6 | 98.4 | 46.3 | 28.5 |
1934 | 78.3 | 11.9 | 72.2 | 75.1 | 39.6 | 48.3 | 45.7 | 79.1 | 70.2 | 82.4 | 63.4 | 183.5 |
1935 | 42.3 | 102.5 | 25.4 | 101.6 | 37.2 | 96.2 | 27.2 | 65.1 | 137.2 | 135.3 | 151.6 | 93.6 |
1936 | 124.4 | 72 | 58.2 | 54.5 | 30.8 | 99.5 | 138 | 28.4 | 90.8 | 60.8 | 107.3 | 90.9 |
1937 | 129 | 142.1 | 89.5 | 81.3 | 77.5 | 42.1 | 63.8 | 42.8 | 62.7 | 81.2 | 51.1 | 98.5 |
1938 | 114.5 | 33 | 16.5 | 7.1 | 71.8 | 54.9 | 80.9 | 89.9 | 60.2 | 134.4 | 120.5 | 108.6 |
1939 | 156.2 | 54.1 | 57.2 | 68.7 | 32.7 | 63 | 118.6 | 78.3 | 31.6 | 124.6 | 162.1 | 60.5 |
1940 | 73.6 | 75.5 | 79.8 | 61.3 | 41.4 | 20.9 | 112.5 | 15 | 48.6 | 108.7 | 196.5 | 73.1 |
1941 | 90.4 | 100.9 | 90.9 | 42 | 63.6 | 36.2 | 74.8 | 126.7 | 20.4 | 79.2 | 84.4 | 57.2 |
1942 | 106.8 | 28.8 | 65.9 | 43.1 | 105.7 | 21 | 75.7 | 86.3 | 66.4 | 100.4 | 42 | 98.3 |
1943 | 147.1 | 46.8 | 26.1 | 37.5 | 84.4 | 59 | 56 | 83.7 | 85.7 | 85.2 | 68.5 | 52.2 |
1944 | 82.4 | 39.4 | 11.5 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 61.7 | 70.2 | 81.1 | 104.3 | 118 | 155.2 | 70.3 |
1945 | 82.3 | 80.3 | 32.5 | 43.5 | 83.2 | 83.1 | 81.4 | 70.8 | 64.6 | 106.2 | 17 | 102.3 |
1946 | 85.8 | 89.1 | 37.7 | 45.5 | 78.8 | 85.9 | 73.7 | 138.1 | 125.1 | 40.2 | 158 | 94.3 |
1947 | 82.5 | 58.3 | 177.5 | 77.5 | 58.8 | 66.6 | 65.4 | 14.4 | 46.7 | 22.2 | 81.3 | 81.7 |
1948 | 176.8 | 49.9 | 34.9 | 53.8 | 72.7 | 91.2 | 45.3 | 122.8 | 72.6 | 77.2 | 55.8 | 110.2 |
1949 | 42.3 | 40.6 | 42.9 | 63.5 | 68.1 | 18.1 | 50.7 | 53.1 | 47.1 | 162 | 111.4 | 89.8 |
1950 | 38.9 | 143.6 | 39.3 | 72.3 | 56.8 | 45.7 | 105.6 | 121.3 | 126.7 | 41.1 | 152.3 | 71.5 |
1951 | 98.9 | 114.1 | 116.2 | 73 | 80.3 | 36.9 | 52.6 | 131.2 | 81.4 | 33.2 | 180.4 | 96.4 |
1952 | 86.9 | 25.8 | 77.1 | 60.8 | 66.1 | 55.1 | 34.7 | 104.1 | 95.3 | 107.3 | 100.5 | 88 |
1953 | 31.8 | 50.5 | 30.1 | 72.8 | 62 | 66.3 | 98.9 | 84.6 | 83.2 | 71.4 | 68.8 | 34.5 |
1954 | 63 | 81.6 | 76.5 | 16.1 | 80.4 | 94.2 | 88.8 | 123.7 | 96.6 | 117.6 | 163.9 | 90.2 |
1955 | 84.8 | 64.1 | 53.9 | 32.1 | 104.1 | 84.7 | 26.1 | 27 | 52.2 | 75.7 | 58.7 | 110 |
1956 | 123.1 | 25.6 | 31.7 | 42.9 | 21.9 | 71.2 | 101.3 | 158.6 | 92.5 | 56.5 | 33.3 | 106.9 |
1957 | 74.5 | 100.7 | 72.1 | 9.7 | 44.8 | 51.8 | 104 | 109.2 | 121.6 | 73.6 | 65.1 | 76.8 |
1958 | 99.9 | 116 | 49.9 | 30.8 | 85.2 | 110.9 | 95.7 | 102.9 | 120.7 | 82.3 | 58.5 | 104.6 |
1959 | 104.5 | 8.7 | 70.3 | 78.9 | 27.6 | 46.7 | 69.7 | 38 | 8 | 90.7 | 119.8 | 164.9 |
1960 | 125.3 | 84.1 | 52.4 | 46.6 | 47.8 | 51.9 | 119.7 | 111.4 | 117.8 | 171 | 149.8 | 117.2 |
1961 | 118.9 | 73.8 | 15.7 | 98.8 | 39 | 39.5 | 67.6 | 85.2 | 80.1 | 117.9 | 62.6 | 106.1 |
1962 | 114 | 37.1 | 46.5 | 72.9 | 64.3 | 17.8 | 59.2 | 109 | 106.9 | 38 | 69.7 | 78.4 |
1963 | 31.9 | 34.9 | 101.6 | 80 | 49.5 | 84.9 | 54.9 | 111.4 | 71.6 | 61.4 | 165.9 | 30.1 |
1964 | 26.4 | 32.4 | 98 | 68.7 | 59.5 | 77.9 | 49.7 | 54.5 | 34.2 | 62.1 | 62.3 | 99.8 |
1965 | 104.8 | 16.4 | 75.4 | 61.7 | 67.5 | 74.1 | 97.4 | 75.2 | 138.3 | 33.9 | 114.2 | 173.1 |
1966 | 60.3 | 129.6 | 34.7 | 111.5 | 69.4 | 87.9 | 73.7 | 112.2 | 55.7 | 129.5 | 78.9 | 117.6 |
1967 | 62.1 | 92.2 | 55.9 | 47.6 | 140.7 | 41.3 | 66.7 | 77.3 | 102.5 | 171.9 | 73.2 | 78.5 |
1968 | 85.8 | 47.6 | 59.5 | 68.8 | 78.7 | 94 | 107.8 | 72.2 | 148.1 | 99 | 69.6 | 84.2 |
1969 | 101.5 | 68.9 | 79.5 | 57 | 115.8 | 51.3 | 70.3 | 76.5 | 41.3 | 17.5 | 138.3 | 87.1 |
1970 | 109.9 | 90.6 | 64.2 | 88.7 | 24.2 | 40.7 | 73.8 | 80 | 67.7 | 61.9 | 178.6 | 53.9 |
1971 | 112.5 | 35 | 69.1 | 55 | 51.5 | 110.7 | 44.4 | 111.6 | 26.3 | 77.2 | 93.6 | 37.6 |
1972 | 100.8 | 75.6 | 75.4 | 69.5 | 75 | 71.8 | 53 | 35.5 | 41.5 | 33.7 | 108.1 | 113.5 |
1973 | 46.1 | 45.8 | 23 | 67.6 | 86.1 | 61.5 | 93.5 | 63.8 | 75.5 | 57.5 | 50.9 | 68.6 |
1974 | 120.6 | 105.8 | 46.6 | 14.3 | 40.7 | 70.4 | 72.5 | 99.8 | 152.6 | 92.2 | 133.1 | 79.7 |
1975 | 124.2 | 32.5 | 81.9 | 67.9 | 50.5 | 22.1 | 62.5 | 51.6 | 106.5 | 37.9 | 73.1 | 48 |
1976 | 57.8 | 39.9 | 48 | 19 | 62.1 | 18.7 | 30.1 | 25.2 | 150.8 | 154.3 | 91.7 | 94 |
1977 | 102.8 | 143.2 | 75.6 | 52.6 | 51 | 84.5 | 23.7 | 107.3 | 40.6 | 70.5 | 110.1 | 97.4 |
1978 | 113.1 | 86.2 | 84.7 | 54.4 | 47.5 | 62.1 | 83.9 | 63.5 | 55.2 | 17.2 | 56.2 | 172.8 |
1979 | 89.6 | 72.8 | 127 | 69.9 | 119.1 | 38.8 | 34.1 | 91 | 39.8 | 88.3 | 93.7 | 159.1 |
1980 | 75.4 | 92 | 102.2 | 17.5 | 32.6 | 123.3 | 75.8 | 88.9 | 61.9 | 131.2 | 91 | 75.1 |
1981 | 57.8 | 52 | 160.4 | 59.4 | 90 | 44.5 | 53.3 | 43.6 | 139.9 | 130.3 | 67.2 | 93.5 |
1982 | 76.2 | 45.9 | 104 | 25.4 | 45.8 | 129.1 | 33.9 | 87.9 | 81.3 | 121.7 | 128.4 | 109.9 |
1983 | 102.4 | 40.4 | 64.1 | 110.7 | 115.2 | 38.3 | 39.2 | 33.3 | 100.8 | 79.9 | 53.2 | 108.1 |
1984 | 149.3 | 60.1 | 64.8 | 10.8 | 64.8 | 42.8 | 28.6 | 56.6 | 121.3 | 99.9 | 151.6 | 79 |
1985 | 75.3 | 31.6 | 66.4 | 67.7 | 68.5 | 101.7 | 77.2 | 114.1 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 72.9 | 124.9 |
1986 | 127.6 | 19.9 | 83.4 | 86.8 | 87.7 | 45 | 55.1 | 118.3 | 28.6 | 97.7 | 120.8 | 142.4 |
1987 | 33.9 | 59.7 | 93 | 69.2 | 49 | 109.1 | 73.2 | 68.7 | 66.4 | 180.2 | 82.4 | 59.8 |
1988 | 169 | 64.6 | 107.3 | 44.6 | 65.8 | 40.2 | 139 | 89 | 72 | 94.2 | 50.2 | 45.7 |
1989 | 49.3 | 90.5 | 96.1 | 88.3 | 20.7 | 57.6 | 38.6 | 59.4 | 41.6 | 103 | 62.7 | 149.3 |
1990 | 128.4 | 143.2 | 22.5 | 39.7 | 23.2 | 73.8 | 35.6 | 47.9 | 53.6 | 108.6 | 68.8 | 96.3 |
1991 | 97.4 | 64.3 | 74.2 | 70.9 | 13.7 | 103 | 70.7 | 27.8 | 64.9 | 72.1 | 93.4 | 49.3 |
1992 | 48.7 | 44.8 | 82.2 | 75.9 | 51.5 | 38 | 89.7 | 134.6 | 96.9 | 90.5 | 148.5 | 78.6 |
1993 | 115.3 | 13.8 | 26.6 | 94.8 | 89.2 | 68.7 | 88.7 | 54.4 | 119.6 | 94.4 | 76 | 172.1 |
1994 | 131 | 85.2 | 94 | 76.3 | 71.1 | 36.1 | 45 | 75.7 | 106.1 | 103.5 | 87.9 | 138.1 |
1995 | 162.6 | 114.9 | 70.6 | 28.1 | 48.5 | 20.2 | 37.6 | 9.1 | 123.3 | 52 | 82.8 | 91.1 |
1996 | 65.9 | 83.3 | 43.2 | 51 | 58.3 | 29.6 | 43.6 | 79.9 | 34 | 87.8 | 134.3 | 55.5 |
1997 | 16.5 | 101.6 | 26.6 | 23.7 | 71.2 | 132.2 | 53.5 | 98.9 | 30.8 | 74.7 | 123.4 | 100.8 |
1998 | 120.4 | 20.4 | 89.2 | 130.9 | 33.9 | 121.4 | 54.4 | 48.7 | 104.4 | 152.1 | 89.3 | 97.4 |
1999 | 128.6 | 50 | 70.6 | 75.8 | 56.2 | 90.9 | 26.3 | 116.6 | 124.9 | 86.5 | 67.3 | 142.4 |
2000 | 46.4 | 95.1 | 32.7 | 142.6 | 98 | 43 | 63.8 | 65.9 | 132.6 | 188 | 182.1 | 142.2 |
2001 | 84.4 | 105.3 | 107.5 | 100 | 42.1 | 44.4 | 73.2 | 86.3 | 82.9 | 135.4 | 65 | 43.5 |
2002 | 86.9 | 115.1 | 53 | 47.5 | 81.1 | 56.6 | 93.2 | 75.8 | 40.8 | 144.2 | 176.2 | 147.5 |
2003 | 91.2 | 38.8 | 36.8 | 43 | 70.9 | 75.6 | 64.7 | 21.3 | 34.7 | 67.7 | 116.6 | 100.3 |
2004 | 122.7 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 91.2 | 47.5 | 59.3 | 74.6 | 156.5 | 49.8 | 154.9 | 52.8 | 63.8 |
2005 | 54.2 | 46.2 | 55.9 | 77.7 | 45.1 | 55.4 | 74.3 | 62.5 | 68.2 | 127.4 | 86.1 | 72.1 |
2006 | 31.9 | 57.7 | 87.8 | 45.7 | 111.8 | 23.9 | 39.1 | 89.2 | 77.6 | 115.7 | 108.6 | 115.7 |
2007 | 100.5 | 111.6 | 63.5 | 10.4 | 118.4 | 144.9 | 137.9 | 60.7 | 48.9 | 49.4 | 80.9 | 95.5 |
2008 | 144.9 | 40.2 | 103.3 | 77.5 | 75.5 | 64.4 | 105.8 | 116.5 | 103.6 | 101.2 | 94 | 62.6 |
2009 | 96.4 | 60.9 | 44.5 | 48 | 55.2 | 57.8 | 140.7 | 60.5 | 34 | 77.9 | 192.1 | 109.1 |
2010 | 75.3 | 87.2 | 71 | 30.1 | 38.3 | 42.7 | 67.9 | 107.2 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 97.5 | 34.1 |
2011 | 94.8 | 81.2 | 22.3 | 11.6 | 46.5 | 82 | 65.2 | 91.4 | 57 | 68.4 | 52.9 | 113.6 |
2012 | 67.6 | 32.1 | 30.9 | 149.9 | 57.4 | 160.1 | 120.7 | 93.9 | 91.8 | 127.1 | NA | NA |
Data on wheat yield (t/ha) and monthly temperature (degree C) in England, 1885--2012
Year | Yield | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1885 | 2.36 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 13.9 | 16.3 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.7 |
1886 | 2.03 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 15.9 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 1.9 |
1887 | 2.41 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 15.3 | 17.3 | 15.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
1888 | 2.11 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 4.9 |
1889 | 2.25 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 |
1890 | 2.32 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 5.7 | -0.8 |
1891 | 2.36 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 |
1892 | 1.99 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 |
1893 | 1.96 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 16.4 | 17.4 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
1894 | 2.32 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
1895 | 1.97 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 |
1896 | 2.53 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
1897 | 2.19 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 10 | 15.1 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 4.7 |
1898 | 2.61 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 |
1899 | 2.47 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 15.7 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 2.2 |
1900 | 2.15 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 14.7 | 17.7 | 15.1 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
1901 | 2.32 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 3.4 |
1902 | 2.48 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 13.9 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
1903 | 2.27 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 13 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 |
1904 | 2.02 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 17.1 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 |
1905 | 2.47 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 17.2 | 14.7 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
1906 | 2.57 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 16.7 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3 |
1907 | 2.55 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 4.6 |
1908 | 2.42 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 6 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.9 |
1909 | 2.51 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 8.7 | 11 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
1910 | 2.26 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 6.4 |
1911 | 2.53 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
1912 | 2.11 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
1913 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
1914 | 2.49 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 15.8 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
1915 | 2.38 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 |
1916 | 2.15 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 16.4 | 13 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 1.9 |
1917 | 2.25 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 14 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 2.3 |
1918 | 2.51 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 13 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 6.9 |
1919 | 2.19 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 5.5 |
1920 | 2.14 | 5.2 | 6 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 13 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 |
1921 | 2.71 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.5 | 14.7 | 18.5 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
1922 | 2.33 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
1923 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
1924 | 2.41 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
1925 | 2.49 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 15 | 16.8 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
1926 | 2.25 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 16.2 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 |
1927 | 2.38 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 |
1928 | 2.49 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 |
1929 | 2.61 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 16 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 5.8 |
1930 | 2.19 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.7 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
1931 | 2.21 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
1932 | 2.37 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 14.1 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 |
1933 | 2.61 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 15.6 | 17.8 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
1934 | 2.72 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 8 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 8.1 |
1935 | 2.53 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 15.1 | 17.1 | 16.6 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 |
1936 | 2.23 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 16.1 | 14.4 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
1937 | 2.23 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 16.1 | 16.9 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 3 |
1938 | 2.78 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.4 |
1939 | 2.53 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 3.2 |
1940 | 2.47 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 6 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 16.4 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 |
1941 | 2.42 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 15.1 | 17.3 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 5.6 |
1942 | 2.78 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 13.6 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 6.7 |
1943 | 2.71 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 16.4 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 |
1944 | 2.66 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 17 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 |
1945 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 14.6 | 16.7 | 15.9 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 4.9 |
1946 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 16.3 | 14.7 | 14 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.1 |
1947 | 2.1 | -2.2 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 8.6 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 17 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
1948 | 2.82 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 9 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 15.1 | 13.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
1949 | 3.06 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 0 | 11.2 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 16.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
1950 | 2.86 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 1.2 |
1951 | 2.96 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 14 | 16.3 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.5 |
1952 | 3.09 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 13.4 | 14.4 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 |
1953 | 3.27 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 15.5 | 16.2 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 6.9 |
1954 | 3.09 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
1955 | 3.64 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 13.8 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 7 | 5.4 |
1956 | 3.38 | -3.6 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 9.4 | 6 | 5.7 |
1957 | 3.46 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 15.2 | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
1958 | 3.35 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 15.8 | 15.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 |
1959 | 3.94 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 6 |
1960 | 3.88 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 16.1 | 15.1 | 15 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.9 |
1961 | 3.84 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 10 | 11 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 6 | 2.2 |
1962 | 4.73 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 13.7 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 |
1963 | 4.24 | -2.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 2.6 |
1964 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.6 |
1965 | 4.41 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 8 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 14 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 11 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
1966 | 4.17 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 11 | 15.4 | 15 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
1967 | 4.18 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 14 | 16.7 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 |
1968 | 3.55 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 14.8 | 15 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 3 |
1969 | 4.04 | 5.5 | 1 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 13.9 | 16.8 | 16.4 | 13.9 | 13 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
1970 | 4.19 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 13 | 16.4 | 15.2 | 16 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 4.3 |
1971 | 4.39 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 16.9 | 15.6 | 14 | 11.3 | 6 | 6.6 |
1972 | 4.24 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
1973 | 4.37 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 7 | 11.4 | 14.8 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 14.3 | 9 | 6 | 4.9 |
1974 | 4.97 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 11 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 8.1 |
1975 | 4.34 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 14.7 | 17.4 | 18.7 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 5.3 |
1976 | 3.85 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 17 | 18.7 | 17.6 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2 |
1977 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 |
1978 | 5.26 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 15 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 3.9 |
1979 | 5.23 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 10 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
1980 | 5.88 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 14.7 | 9 | 6.6 | 5.6 |
1981 | 5.84 | 4.9 | 3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 15.5 | 16.2 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 0.3 |
1982 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 8 | 4.4 |
1983 | 6.37 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 14.4 | 19.5 | 17.3 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
1984 | 7.71 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 14.5 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 8 | 5.2 |
1985 | 6.33 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 11 | 4.1 | 6.3 |
1986 | 6.97 | -3.5 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 11 | 7.8 | 6.2 |
1987 | 5.99 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.11 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 13.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 5.6 |
1988 | 6.23 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 7.5 |
1989 | 6.74 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 13 | 14.6 | 18.2 | 16.6 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 4.9 |
1990 | 6.97 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 16.9 | 18 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 4.3 |
1991 | 7.25 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 4.7 |
1992 | 6.82 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 |
1993 | 7.33 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 15 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
1994 | 7.35 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 14.5 | 18 | 16 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 6.4 |
1995 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 18.6 | 19.2 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 2.3 |
1996 | 8.15 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 14.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.9 |
1997 | 7.38 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 9 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 16.7 | 18.9 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 |
1998 | 7.56 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 15.9 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
1999 | 8.05 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 17.7 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 5 |
2000 | 8.01 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 14.7 | 10.3 | 7 | 5.8 |
2001 | 7.08 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 17.2 | 16.8 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 3.6 |
2002 | 8 | 5.5 | 7 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 16 | 17 | 14.4 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
2003 | 7.78 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 17.6 | 18.3 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.8 |
2004 | 7.77 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 |
2005 | 7.96 | 6 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 15.5 | 16.9 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 4.4 |
2006 | 8.04 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 15.9 | 19.7 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 13 | 8.1 | 6.5 |
2007 | 7.23 | 7 | 5.8 | 7.21 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 15.1 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 4.9 |
2008 | 8.28 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 7 | 3.5 |
2009 | 7.93 | 3 | 4.1 | 7 | 10 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 16.6 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.1 |
2010 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 5.2 | \(-\)0.7 |
2011 | 7.75 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 6.71 | 1.8 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 6 |
2012 | 6.68 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 13 | 9.7 | NA | NA |
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Chavas, JP., Di Falco, S. Resilience, Weather and Dynamic Adjustments in Agroecosystems: The Case of Wheat Yield in England. Environ Resource Econ 67, 297–320 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9987-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9987-9