Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Crime within a Bandwidth: Testing “the Law of Crime Concentration at Place” in Brussels

  • Published:
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study tests the law of crime concentration at place in Brussels Capital Region (approx. 1.2 million inhabitants) and examines the spatial stability of crime concentrations by applying Andresen’s Spatial Point Pattern Test. Besides testing the law of crime concentration city-wide, this study also tests the law of crime concentration in the context of Brussels’ six police departments and 19 municipalities. Police-registered crime data (n = 228,606 incidents) for the period 2007–2016 were used, which were geocoded at the spatial micro-level of grid cells (200 by 200 m). The results indicate that residential burglary is less concentrated in Brussels, although the concentrations of aggressive theft and battery are in line with previous tests of the law of crime concentration in Europe and the United States. Nevertheless, the results also indicate that crime concentrations vary significantly across Brussels’ police departments and municipalities, which seem to be higher in larger municipalities and police departments. In addition, the spatial patterns of residential burglary, aggressive theft and battery were not spatially stable in Brussels between 2007 and 2016. This study indicates that considerable attention should be payed to tailoring place-based policing approaches to the characteristics of each crime type, including the spatial concentration and the spatial stability of crime. More research is needed into the underlying factors of low or high crime concentrations and the mechanisms of spatial (in)stability at the spatial micro-level.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

The crime datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available due to constraints imposed by the involved police departments but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. In this study, we use Brussels to refer to Brussels Capital Region.

  2. This relates to the Modifiable Area Unit Problem (MAUP). The MAUP can be linked to the statistical modelling of certain phenomena, such as crime, for which the aerial units of analysis may vary according to the size and shape of the units, so that identical data that are aggregated in different ways may bring about different and thus biased results (Dark & Bram, 2007; Fotheringham & Wong, 1991; Oberwittler & Wikström, 2009; Openshaw, 1984). This problem has traditionally been characterised by designating two major issues, namely scale and zonation effects. Scale effects mainly occur when the analysis of a particular phenomenon yields different results depending on the size of the units of analysis (aggregation level), whereas zonation effects occur when the results of the statistical analysis differ depending on the artificial boundaries used, i.e., how the study area is divided up, all else being equal (ceteris paribus). By using grid cells as unit of analysis, we may designate fixed aerial boundaries as each grid cell has the same geographical structure, allowing us to investigate crime concentrations in a more standardised and uniform way (in this study, grid cells of 200 by 200-m).

  3. The crime datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available due to constraints imposed by the involved police departments but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

  4. Because the Federal Police Department provided the crime data in a geocoded format with X and Y coordinates of the crime events, we cannot provide any information about the geocoding hit rate nor with regard to the missing streets and house numbers.

  5. The most recent version of the SPPT developed for R uses 100% sampling with replacement, however, no significant differences were found when comparing the results of both versions.

  6. It appeared that municipalities (n = 19) with a lower proportion inhabited area tend to have lower percentages of micro-places accounting for 50 % of the residential burglaries between 2007 and 2016 (r = 0.83). Although this is an ecological correlation, that should be interpreted as such, this suggests a relationship between the proportion inhabited area and the concentration of residential burglary, where areas with a lower proportion of inhabited area have relatively fewer residential properties that can be targeted by burglars and, hence, crime will be more concentrated.

References

  • Amemiya, M., & Ohyama, T. (2019). Toward a test of the “Law of crime concentration” in Japanese cities: A geographical crime analysis in Tokyo and Osaka. Crime Science, 8(1), 1–6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andresen, M. A. (2009). Testing for similarity in area-based spatial patterns: A nonparametric Monte Carlo approach. Applied Geography, 29(3), 333–345.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andresen, M. A. (2016). An area-based nonparametric spatial point pattern test: The test, its applications, and the future. Methodological Innovations, 9,1–11. https://doi.org/10.1177/2059799116630659

  • Andresen, M. A., Linning, S. J., & Malleson, N. (2017). Crime at places and spatial concentrations: Exploring the spatial stability of property crime in Vancouver BC, 2003–2013. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(2), 255–275.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andresen, M. A., & Malleson, N. (2011). Testing the stability of crime patterns: Implications for theory and policy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(1), 58–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernasco, W., & Steenbeek, W. (2017). More places than crimes: Implications for evaluating the law of crime concentration at place. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(3), 451–467.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2014). The effects of hot spots policing on crime: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Justice Quarterly, 31(4), 633–663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019). Hot spots policing and crime reduction: An update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 15(3), 289–311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braga, A. A., & Weisburd, D. (2010). Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bruinsma, G. J. N., & Pauwels, L. J. R. (2018). The added value of the criminology of place to the research agenda of environmental criminology: Core propositions for unexplained mechanisms. In D. Weisburd & J. Eck (Eds.), Unraveling the crime-place connection: New directions in theory and policy (pp. 67–95). Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruinsma, G. J., Pauwels, L. J. R., Weerman, F. M., & Bernasco, W. (2013). Social disorganization, social capital, collective efficacy and the spatial distribution of crime and offenders: An empirical test of six neighbourhood models for a Dutch city. British Journal of Criminology, 53(5), 942–963.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chalfin, A., Kaplan, J., & Cuellar, M. (2020). Re-examining the law of crime concentration: Between-and within-city evidence. Available at SSRN 3423065.

  • Curman, A. S., Andresen, M. A., & Brantingham, P. J. (2015). Crime and place: A longitudinal examination of street segment patterns in Vancouver BC. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 31(1), 127–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dark, S. J., & Bram, D. (2007). The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 471–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Melo, S. N., Matias, L. F., & Andresen, M. A. (2015). Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context. Applied Geography, 62, 314–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eck, J. E., & Weisburd, D. (Eds.). (1995). Crime and place (Vol. 4, pp. 1–34). Criminal Justice Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Favarin, S. (2018). This must be the place (to commit a crime). Testing the law of crime concentration in Milan, Italy. European Journal of Criminology, 15(6), 702–729.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrell, G. (2013). Five tests for a theory of the crime drop. Crime Science, 2(1), 1–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., & Tilley, N. (2011). The effectiveness of vehicle security devices and their role in the crime drop. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 11(1), 21–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fotheringham, A. S., & Wong, D. W. S. (1991). The modifiable areal unit problem in multivariate statistical analysis. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 23(7), 1025–1044. https://doi.org/10.1068/a231025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill, C., Wooditch, A., & Weisburd, D. (2017). Testing the “law of crime concentration at place” in a suburban setting: Implications for research and practice. Journal of quantitative criminology, 33(3), 519–545.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groff, E. R., Weisburd, D., & Yang, S. M. (2010). Is it important to examine crime trends at a local “micro” level?: A longitudinal analysis of street to street variability in crime trajectories. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26(1), 7–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hardyns, W., & Rummens, A. (2018). Predictive policing as a new tool for law enforcement? Recent developments and challenges. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 24(3), 201–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hardyns, W., Snaphaan, T., & Pauwels, L. J. R. (2019). Crime concentrations and micro places: An empirical test of the “law of crime concentration at places” in Belgium. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 52(3), 390–410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipp, J. R., & Kim, Y. A. (2017). Measuring crime concentration across cities of varying sizes: Complications based on the spatial and temporal scale employed. Journal of quantitative criminology, 33(3), 595–632.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hodgkinson, T., & Andresen, M. A. (2019). Changing spatial patterns of residential burglary and the crime drop: The need for spatial data signatures. Journal of Criminal Justice, 61, 90–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M. A., & Farrell, G. (2016). The decline and locational shift of automotive theft: A local level analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 44, 49–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, R. W., & Pridemore, W. A. (2019). Toward an integrated multilevel theory of crime at place: Routine activities, social disorganisation, and the law of crime concentration. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 35(3), 543–572.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khalfa, R., Snaphaan, T., & Hardyns, W. (2023). An algorithmic strategy or measuring police presence with GPS data [Manuscript submitted for publication]. Department of Criminology Criminal Law and Social Law, Ghent University.

  • Lee, Y. (2017). Comparing measures of the concentration of crime at places and times (PhD thesis). University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lum, C., & Koper, C. S. (2013). Evidence-based policing in smaller agencies: Challenges, prospects, and opportunities. The Police Chief, 80(4), 42–47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oberwittler, D., & Wikström, P. O. H. (2009). Why small is better: Advancing the study of the role of behavioral contexts in crime causation. In Putting crime in its place (pp. 35–59). Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Oliveira, M., Bastos-Filho, C., & Menezes, R. (2017). The scaling of crime concentration in cities. PloS one, 12(8), e0183110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Openshaw, S. (1984). Ecological fallacies and the analysis of areal census data. Environment and planning A, 16(1), 17–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey, R., & Mohler, G. O. (2018). Evaluation of crime topic models: Topic coherence vs spatial crime concentration. In IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) (Vol. 2018, pp. 76–78). https://doi.org/10.1109/isi.2018.8587384

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ratcliffe, J. H. (2016). Intelligence-led policing. Routledge.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sherman, L. W., Gartin, P. R., & Buerger, M. E. (1989). Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1), 27–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Šimon, M., & Jíchová, J. (2022). Crime count and crime harm in a post-socialist city: How does the law of crime concentration at places apply? European Journal of Criminology, 19(6), 1349–1366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Snaphaan, T., & Hardyns, W. (2021). Environmental criminology in the big data era. European Journal of Criminology, 18(5), 713–734. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819877753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Statbel. (2022). Bodemgebruik. Retrieved April 15, 2023, from https://statbel.fgov.be/nl/themas/leefmilieu/grond/bodemgebruik#figures

  • Steenbeek, W., & Weisburd, D. (2016). Where the action is in crime? An examination of variability of crime across different spatial units in The Hague, 2001–2009. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(3), 449–469.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solymosi, R., & Bowers, K. (2018). The role of innovative data collection methods in advancing criminological understanding. In G. J. N. Bruinsma & S. D. Johnson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of environmental criminology (pp. 210–237). Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Telep, C. W., & Weisburd, D. (2018). Crime concentrations at places. In G. J. N. Bruinsma & S. D. Johnson (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of environmental criminology (pp. 583–603). Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tilley, N., Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., & Thompson, R. (2018). The role of security in causing drops in domestic burglary. In Reducing Burglary (pp. 223–244). Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Vandeviver, C., & Steenbeek, W. (2019). The (in) stability of residential burglary patterns on street segments: The case of Antwerp, Belgium 2005–2016. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 35(1), 111–133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D. (2015). The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place. Criminology, 53(2), 133–157.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., & Green, L. (1995). Policing drug hot spots: The Jersey City drug market analysis experiment. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 711–735.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., & Mazerolle, L. G. (2000). Crime and disorder in drug hot spots: Implications for theory and practice in policing. Police quarterly, 3(3), 331–349.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., & Amram, S. (2014). The law of concentrations of crime at place: The case of Tel Aviv-Jaffa. Police Practice and Research, 15(2), 101–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., Bushway, S., Lum, C., & Yang, S. M. (2004). Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle. Criminology, 42(2), 283–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., Bernasco, W., & Bruinsma, G. (Eds.). (2009). Putting crime in its place: Units of analysis in geographic criminology. Springer.

  • Weisburd, D., Groff, E. R., & Yang, S. M. (2012). The criminology of place: Street segments and our understanding of the crime problem. Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd, D., Eck, J. E., Braga, A. A., Telep, C. W., Cave, B., Bowers, K., Bruinsma, G. J. N., Gill, C., Groff, E., Hibdon, J., Hinkle, J. C., Johnson, S. D., Lawton, B., Lum, C., Ratcliffe, J., Rengert, G., Taniguchi, T., Yang, S.-M. (2016). Place matters: Criminology for the 21st Century. Cambridge University Press.

  • Weisheit, R. A., Falcone, D. N., & Wells, L. E. (2005). Crime and policing in rural and small-town America. Waveland Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wheeler, A. P., Worden, R. E., & McLean, S. J. (2016). Replicating group-based trajectory models of crime at micro-places in Albany NY. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(4), 589–612.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Federal Police of Belgium for providing the data used in this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Criminology, Criminal Law and Social Law, Ghent University, Universiteitstraat 4, 9000, Ghent, Belgium

    Robin Khalfa, Thom Snaphaan, Lieven Pauwels & Wim Hardyns

  2. Centre of Expertise Safe and Resilient Society, Avans University of Applied Sciences, Hugo de Grootlaan 37, 5223 LB, ‘s-Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands

    Thom Snaphaan

  3. Department for Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätstrasse 7, 1010, Vienna, Austria

    Ourania Kounadi

  4. Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Antwerp, Sint-Jacobstraat 2, 2000, Antwerp, Belgium

    Wim Hardyns

Authors
  1. Robin Khalfa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Thom Snaphaan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Lieven Pauwels
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ourania Kounadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Wim Hardyns
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Robin Khalfa.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendices

Appendix 1. Characteristics of Brussels’ six police departments and 19 municipalities

Table 2 Characteristics of Brussels’ six police departments and 19 municipalities
Full size table

Appendix 2. Bivariate global and robust global S-indices

Table 3 Bivariate global S-indices of residential burglary
Full size table
Table 4 Bivariate Global S-indices of aggressive theft
Full size table
Table 5 Bivariate Global S-indices of battery
Full size table
Table 6 Bivariate robust Global S-indices of residential burglary
Full size table
Table 7 Bivariate robust Global S-indices of aggressive theft
Full size table
Table 8 Bivariate robust Global S-indices of battery
Full size table

Appendix 3. Local S-indices

Fig. 4
figure 4

Local S-indices of residential burglary

Full size image
Fig. 5
figure 5

Local S-indices of aggressive theft

Full size image
Fig. 6
figure 6

Local S-indices of battery

Full size image

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khalfa, R., Snaphaan, T., Pauwels, L. et al. Crime within a Bandwidth: Testing “the Law of Crime Concentration at Place” in Brussels. Eur J Crim Policy Res (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09556-8

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09556-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation