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The implication of atmospheric aerosols on rainfall over Malawi, Southeast Africa

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Abstract

Understanding the driving factors for the change of climatic patterns is crucial for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. Significant effort has been made to understand changes in climatic patterns; however, less has been done to investigate the driving factors that influence the trends of early rainfall over Malawi. Hence, a substantial research gap exists concerning in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. The present study investigates the implications of atmospheric aerosols on precipitation during the early rainfall season over Malawi. Open burning, such as bushfires and burning of crop residues by local farmers, are the major anthropogenic activities enhancing aerosol accumulation in the atmosphere and hence need to be strictly controlled over the domain and the surrounding region. The present results show that rainfall generally starts between October and November and gradually increases with the maximum observed in January and ends in March in most areas. Monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD550) has an opposite pattern to that of rainfall with high AOD550 (>0.4) between September and October, mostly over southern areas and along with Lake Malawi. An analysis of rainfall during the beginning of the season indicates a significant decrease of rainfall over the southern areas of Malawi, associated with high AOD550, while insignificant change is observed over the central and northern areas associated with low AOD550 values. Statistical analyses among AOD550, cloud effective radius (CER), and precipitation demonstrates that negative trends of rainfall are strongly associated with a high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols from biomass burning during October. These aerosols might have absorbed excess moisture and disrupted local convective processes associated with the first rainfall that the domain receives, between the months of October and November. Therefore, regional control measures are required to reduce the excess emissions of anthropogenic aerosols into the atmosphere, such as controlling open burning during the active fire period (July-October).

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The data used in this paper are available upon the request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgments

The acknowledgments are extended to NASA, ECMWF, VIIRS, CHIRPS, and the Department of Climate change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) Malawi for providing the data sets used in the present study.

Funding

We acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 42050410321). The author (MN) also would like to acknowledge the support offered by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) and the Malawi Government through the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services for the support to pursue higher studies. One of the authors, KRK is grateful to the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), a statutory body under the Department of Science and Technology (DST), India, for providing financial grants (Grant No. SR/FST/PS-1/2018/35) scheme to the Department of Physics, KLEF.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Environment Center, Joint Laboratory for International Cooperation on Climate and Environmental Change, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Matthews Nyasulu, Md. Mozammel Haque, Nimashi P. M. Chathurangika & Tahmina Binte Shiraj

  2. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Matthews Nyasulu, Md. Mozammel Haque, Nimashi P. M. Chathurangika & Tahmina Binte Shiraj

  3. Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS)Malawi, P.O. Box 1808, Blantyre, Malawi

    Matthews Nyasulu & Alexander Francis

  4. Department of Physics, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation (KLEF), Vaddeswaram, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, 522502, India

    Kanike Raghavendra Kumar

  5. Department of Chemistry, Jagannath University, Dhaka, 1100, Bangladesh

    Tahmina Binte Shiraj, Nazir Ahmmad & Mohammad Lokman Hossain

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  1. Matthews Nyasulu
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Contributions

M.M.H. and M.N. designed the research. N.P.M.C., A.F., and T.B.S. collected and process the data. K.R.K., N.A., and M.L.H. reviewed and edited the manuscript. M.N. wrote the paper under the guidance of M.M.H.. All authors were actively involved in the discussion of the paper.

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Correspondence to Md. Mozammel Haque.

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Nyasulu, M., Haque, M.M., Kumar, K.R. et al. The implication of atmospheric aerosols on rainfall over Malawi, Southeast Africa. Climatic Change 177, 7 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03667-1

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