Abstract
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation that is physically possible over a particular location after a storm. Changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes associated with climate change may alter established PMP values, calling for updated approaches for estimating PMP to inform water resources management. In this study, we established a framework to update PMP for Hong Kong, a major coastal metropolis in south China where precipitation extremes are intensifying in a changing climate. The methods explored are adaptations of a traditional statistical method, a local storm moisture maximization method, and a storm transposition method. As inputs to the associated models, (1) data from annual maximum rainfall series at various durations (4-, 6-, 12-, 24-h) from 1884 to 2015 in Hong Kong and its surrounding regions, Taiwan; (2) dewpoint data at an hourly resolution spanning from 1984 to 2015 in Hong Kong; and (3) hourly rainfall and dewpoint data observed during three major typhoons in Taiwan were incorporated. Although our data were available until 2015, it is worth noting that no more recent extreme precipitation events have surpassed the values recorded during the study period. Finally, we present a new dataset of the updated point- and area-scale PMP values for Hong Kong for multiple durations (4-, 6-, 12-, 24-h). These updated values were assessed and verified to be reasonable through comparisons with regional storm records, PMP estimates from adjacent areas, and historical PMP values for Hong Kong. The updated PMP values for Hong Kong can serve as a reference for the design of hydraulic structures and preparation for extreme precipitation events. Further, the proposed framework for updating PMP values can be transferred to other coastal metropolises for flood design.
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Data availability
Due to confidentiality agreements, supporting data including rainfall and dewpoint data can only be made available to bona fide researcher’s subject to a non-disclosure agreement. Details of the data and how to request access are available at the website of Hong Kong Observatory (https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/index.html), Geotechnical Engineering Office (https://www.cedd.gov.hk/tc/home/), the Guangdong Hydrographic Bureau (http://slt.gd.gov.cn/zsdw_2021/gdsswj/), the Central Weather Bureau (https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V8/C/), and Water Resources Agency (https://www.wra.gov.tw/), respectively.
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Acknowledgements
Support for HKO was provided in data and advice of Dr. Tsz Cheung Lee from the meteorological perspective. Support for GEO was provided in data and advice because of the Hong Kong PMP project, especially from Raymond P.H. Law. Support for EWB was provided in part by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Hatch project #PEN04751, accession #1025255, and her work was conducted while serving at the National Science Foundation.
Funding
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42201033), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2021SCU12040, YJ202093), the Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program (2022YFQ0066), and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Hatch project #PEN04751, accession #1025255.
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Ping Lan: data curation, methodology, formal analysis, software, writing—original draft; Li Guo: conceptualization, investigation, supervision, writing—review and editing; Yaling Zhang: validation, review and editing; Guanghua Qin: methodology, software; Xiaodong Li: methodology, visualization; Carlos R. Mello: writing—review and editing; Elizabeth W. Boyer: writing—review and editing; Yehui Zhang: writing—review and editing; Bihang Fan: visualization, funding acquisition, writing—review and editing.
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Lan, P., Guo, L., Zhang, Y. et al. Updating probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong under intensifying extreme precipitation events. Climatic Change 177, 19 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03663-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03663-5