Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate vulnerability scenario of the agricultural sector in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper investigated the vulnerability of the agriculture sector and rural agriculture livelihoods in the Bicol River Basin (BRB) of the Philippines to projected changes in climate. The geographical characteristics of the BRB feature eight major sub-basins or watersheds consisting of Libmanan-Pulantuna, Ragay Hills, Thiris, Naga-Yabo, Pawili River, Waras-Lalo, Naporog, and Quinali. The study applied the combination of the participatory tools and the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) framework to gather information on local climate vulnerabilities and contexts. Briefly, the CRVA employed geospatial modeling and utilized several indicators which are presumed to affect vulnerability including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity which were aggregated to provide an index of vulnerability. This enabled us to identify areas of exposure and vulnerability and pointed areas of greatest need for strengthened adaptive capacity and risk management. Our findings revealed that vulnerability in the BRB was perceived to be relatively prevalent and that typhoons, flooding, and drought were identified to contribute significant impacts to rural livelihood. Furthermore, our findings in the CRVA suggested significant regional differences in vulnerability in the BRB. The majority of the towns in the central and northwestern portions of the BRB will largely experience increased vulnerability, particularly, in the Thiris sub-basin including some parts of Ragay Hills, Waras-Lalo, and the northwestern Libmanan-Pulantuna sub-basins. On the contrary, the entire Quinali region on the south is revealed to have the lowest vulnerability index. The clear policy implication of these accounts will be on how to mobilize developmental thrusts in both areas of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation at the sub-national level to reinforce local-based climate priority setting in adaptation interventions and policies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data are provided as supplementary material. Quantitative data for the climate and crop simulation are available from the corresponding author on request, subject to institutional approval.

References

  • Abon CC, David CPC, Tabios GQ (2012) Community-based monitoring for flood early warning system. Disaster Prev Manag 21(1):85–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Acheampong EN, Ozor N, Owusu ES (2014) Vulnerability assessment of northern Ghana to climate variability. Clim Chang 126(1–2):31–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adger WN, Agrawal S, Mirza MMW, Conde C, O'brien KL, Pulhin J et al (2007) Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry ML, Canziani OF , Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 717–743

  • Alam SA, Starr M (2013) Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 18(7):979–999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alberto MCR, Hirano T, Miyata A, Wassmann R, Kumar A, Padre A, Amante M (2012) Influence of climate variability on seasonal and interannual variations of ecosystem CO2 exchange in flooded and non-flooded rice fields in the Philippines. Field Crop Res 134:80–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baca M, Läderach P, Haggar J, Schroth G, Ovalle O (2014) An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica. PLoS One 9(2):e88463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buchner BK, Oliver P, Wang X, Carswell C, Meattle C, Mazza F (2017) Global landscape of climate finance 2017. Climate Policy Initiative. Available: https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2017-Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance.pdf

  • Carating RB, Galanta RG, Bacatio CD (2014) The soils of the lowlands. In: In the soils of the Philippines. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 51–106

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Daze A, Ambrose K, Ehrhart C (2009) Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis-handbook. CARE International. Available: http://www.careclimatechange.org

  • Department of Agriculture (DA) (2017) 2017 Annual Report. Department of Agriculture Regional Field Office 5 Planning, Monitoring & Evaluation Division. Pili, Camarines Sur. Retrieved from http://bicol.da.gov.ph/rfo5newweb/wpcontent/uploads/2019/02/DA-RFO-5-Annual-Report-2017-web.pdf

  • Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) (2015) Formulation of an integrated Bicol River basin management and development master plan executive summary Vol. 1. Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Naga City. Retrieved from https://rbco.denr.gov.ph/masterplans/bicolexecutivesummary.pdf

  • Deressa T, Hassan RM, Ringler C (2008) Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states. Intl Food Policy Res Inst Discussion Paper 806. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/21518

  • Dilshad T, Mallick D, Udas PB, Goodrich CG, Prakash A, Gorti G et al (2019) Growing social vulnerability in the river basins: evidence from the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. Environ Dev 31:19–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doroteo HJ (2015) Philippines: disaster risk profile and disaster risk reduction (DDR) framework: natural calamities. University of Oviedo, Spain, pp 1–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Eakin H, Bojórquez-Tapia LA (2008) Insights into the composition of household vulnerability from multicriteria decision analysis. Glob Environ Chang 18(1):112–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers Distrib 17(1):43–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fick SE, Hijmans RJ (2017) WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 37(12):4302–4315

  • Ford JD, Keskitalo ECH, Smith T, Pearce T, Berrang-Ford L, Duerden F, Smit B (2010) Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1(3):374–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritzsche K, Schneiderbauer S, Bubeck P, Kienberger S, Buth M, Zebisch M et al (2014) The vulnerability source book. Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. Available: http://www.adaptationcommunity.net/?wpfb_dl=203

  • Füssel HM (2010) Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Gang C, Wang Z, Zhou W, Chen Y, Li J, Cheng J et al (2015) Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario. Environ Earth Sci 74(7):5949–5959

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gentle P, Maraseni TN (2012) Climate change, poverty and livelihoods: adaptation practices by rural mountain communities in Nepal. Environ Sci Pol 21:24–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gohari A, Eslamian S, Abedi-Koupaei J, Bavani AM, Wang D, Madani K (2013) Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River basin. Sci Total Environ 442:405–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The livelihood vulnerability index: a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—a case study in Mozambique. Glob Environ Chang 19(1):74–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamouda MA, El-Din MMN, Moursy FI (2009) Vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in the eastern Nile Basin. Water Resour Manag 23(13):2697–2725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrin AN (2019) Fertility and family planning behavior in the Bicol River basin. Transactions of the National Academy of Science and Technology. Bicutan, Taguig: NAST. Accessible: https://library.econ.upd.edu.ph/ir/handle/123456789/5795

  • Heumann BW, Walsh SJ, McDaniel PM (2011) Assessing the application of a geographic presence-only model for land suitability mapping. Ecol Inform 6(5):257–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high-resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25(15):1965–1978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinkel J (2011) “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a clarification of the science–policy interface. Glob Environ Chang 21(1):198–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Illo JFI (1977) Jobs, income, and poverty: selected observations on the Bicol River Basin, Camarines Sur. Philipp Sociol Rev 25(3/4):119–127

    Google Scholar 

  • International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (2016) Climate-Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) to support regional targeting and planning for the Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture (AMIA). Available: https://ciat.cgiar.org/ciatprojects/climate-risk-vulnerability-assessment-crva-to-support-regional-targeting-and-planning-for-the-adaptation-and-mitigationinitiative-in-agriculture-amia/

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. In: A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, p 398

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 1535

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson FA, Hutton CW (2014) Dependence on agriculture and ecosystem services for livelihood in Northeast India and Bhutan: vulnerability to climate change in the Tropical River Basins of the Upper Brahmaputra. Clim Chang 127(1):107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jost C, Kyazze F, Naab J, Neelormi S, Kinyangi J, Zougmore R et al (2016) Understanding gender dimensions of agriculture and climate change in smallholder farming communities. Clim Dev 8(2):133–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jurgilevich A, Räsänen A, Groundstroem F, Juhola S (2017) A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments. Environ Res Lett 12:013002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koppel B (1987) Does integrated area development work? Insights from the Bicol River basin development program. World Dev 15(2):205–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy PK, Lewis K, Choularton RJ (2014) A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index. Glob Environ Chang 25:121–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lanzona LA, Evenson RE (1997) The effects of transactions costs on labor market participation and earnings: evidence from rural Philippine markets (no. 790). Center Discussion Paper. Accessible at https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/98370/1/cdp790.pdf

  • Laukkonen J, Blanco PK, Lenhart J, Keiner M, Cavric B, Kinuthia-Njenga C (2009) Combining climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at the local level. Habitat Int 33(3):287–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim-Camacho L, Ariyawardana A, Lewis GK, Crimp SJ, Somogyi S, Ridoutt B, Howden SM (2017) Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance. Reg Environ Chang 17(1):93–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mallari AEC (2016) Climate change vulnerability assessment in the agriculture sector: Typhoon Santi experience. Procedia Soc Behav Sci 216:440–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mascariñas AM, Baas S, Köksalan N, Amano LO, Nieves PM, Binoya CS et al (2013) Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into agriculture: a case study from Bicol Region, Philippines. Environment and Natural Resources Management Series (no. 20). FAO, Rome. Available: http://www.fao.org/3/i3343e/i3343e.pdf

  • McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. In: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, pp 21–72

  • McKee M (1983) Flood flow modeling in the Bicol River basin. Prepared for the Bicol River Basin Development Program and USAID. Accessible at http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNAAT418.pdf

  • Meigh JD, Bartlett JM (2010) Integrated river basin management in Southeast Asia. J Flood Risk Manag 3(3):201–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell M, Ignizio D (2012) USGS Data Series 691: bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States. Available online: https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/691/ds691.pdf

  • Øverland I, Vakulchuk R (2017) Impact of climate change on ASEAN international affairs: risk and opportunity multiplier. NUPI Report

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker L, Bourgoin C, Martinez-Valle A, Läderach P (2019) Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: the development of a pan-tropical climate risk vulnerability assessment to inform sub-national decision making. PLoS One 14(3):e0213641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peñalba LM, Elazegui DD, Pulhin JM, Cruz RVO (2012) Social and institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 4(3):308–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) (2012) Major crops statistics of the Philippines, 10th edn. Crops Statistics Division, Quezon City Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/MajorCrops10-14.pdf

  • Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) (2018) January–December 2017 fisheries situation report. Philippine Statistics Authority Fisheries Statistics Division, Quezon City Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/FSR2017_0.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) (2019) Crops statistics of the Philippines. Quezon City: Crops Statistics Division. Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/Crops%20Statistics%20of%20the%20 Philippines%202014-2018.pdf

  • Rola AC, Tornilla RP, Sambajon S, Ravago E, Penaserado V, Payonga A et al (2018) Water security under climate risks: a Philippine climate change adaptation strategy for the agriculture sector (Bicol Agri-Water Project) - Final Report 2012–2017. University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna. Retrieved from https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/water-security-underclimate-risks-philippine-climate-change-adaptation-strategy

  • Sherbinin AD, Apotsos A, Chevrier J (2017) Mapping the future: policy applications of climate vulnerability mapping in West Africa. Geogr J 183(4):414–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB (2018) Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLoS One 13(8):e0201426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan C (2002) Calculating a water poverty index. World Dev 30(7):1195–1210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takagi H, Esteban M (2016) Statistics of tropical cyclone landfalls in the Philippines: unusual characteristics of 2013 typhoon Haiyan. Nat Hazards 80(1):211–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tully KL, Weissman D, Wyner WJ, Miller J, Jordan T (2019) Soils in transition: saltwater intrusion alters soil chemistry in agricultural fields. Biogeochemistry 142(3):339–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Upgupta S, Sharma J, Jayaraman M, Kumar V, Ravindranath NH (2015) Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: a case study of Himachal Pradesh, India. Clim Risk Manag 10:63–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Usamah MB, Alkema D (2006) Simulating scenario floods for hazard assessment on the lower Bicol floodplain, the Philippines. In: Advances in Geosciences, vol 4. Hydrological Science (HS), pp 69–74

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vos R, Cattaneo A, Stamoulis K, Semedo MH, Salazar RC, Frick M et al (2016) The state of food and agriculture. Climate change, agriculture and food security. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Office for Corporate Communication, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Weis SWM, Agostini VN, Roth LM, Gilmer B, Schill SR, Knowles JE et al (2016) Assessing vulnerability: an integrated approach for mapping adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. Clim Chang 136:615–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolf S, Hinkel J, Hallier M, Bisaro A, Lincke D, Ionescu C, Klein RJ (2013) Clarifying vulnerability definitions and assessments using formalisation. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 5(1):54–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2013) Building resilience: integrating climate and disaster risk into development. Lessons from world bank group experience. The World Bank, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, He B, Lü A, Zhou L, Liu M, Zhao L (2011) Quantitative assessment and spatial characteristics analysis of agricultural drought vulnerability in China. Nat Hazards 56(3):785–801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yohe G, Tol RS (2002) Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Glob Environ Chang 12(1):25–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the Department of Agriculture Regional Field Office 5 under Rice Program through the initiatives and support of its former regional executive director Dr. Elena B. De Los Santos. The authors acknowledge Director Rodel P. Tornilla and the Bicol AMIA team headed by Mr. Lorenzo L. Alvina for their technical and field assistance. The same acknowledgment is given to Dr. Raul G. Bradecina for his insightful comments and suggestions. We thank Mr. Leo Kris M. Palao of CIAT Asia for providing supplementary materials for the analysis. The authors also honor the contribution of the people in the research sites for their cooperation, support, and invaluable feedbacks during the project implementation.

Funding

Funding was supported by the Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture- Regional Field Office 5 (DA-RFO 5) under Rice Program. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their affiliated institutions, including the DA-RFO 5.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Arts and Sciences, Partido State University, Goa,, 4422, Camarines Sur, Philippines

    Ricky P. Laureta

  2. College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman,, 1101, Quezon City, Philippines

    Ric Ryan H. Regalado

  3. Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Division, Department of Agriculture Regional Field Office 5, Pili,, 4418, Camarines Sur, Philippines

    Ermar B. De La Cruz

Authors
  1. Ricky P. Laureta
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ric Ryan H. Regalado
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ermar B. De La Cruz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

R.P. Laureta and R.R.H. Regalado designed the study. R.R.H. Regalado performed the analyses and data curation, with support from E.B. De La Cruz who also contributed materials/analysis tools. R.P. Laureta led the supervision and writing with input from all co-authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ricky P. Laureta.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Written informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

Consent for publication

Written informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

ESM 1

(DOCX 294 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Laureta, R.P., Regalado, R.R.H. & De La Cruz, E.B. Climate vulnerability scenario of the agricultural sector in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines. Climatic Change 168, 4 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03208-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03208-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation