Farmers’ views on climate change, opportunities and risks
Almost all Finnish farmers agreed that climate change is occurring (Fig. 1, Appendix 3), as in 2018 only 1% of them answered that climate change is not occurring and 2% that there is not enough evidence to make a firm judgement. In spite of this, there was a lot variation concerning the cause for climate change. Only 33% of the farmers agree that climate change is of anthropogenic origin, while majority (64% in 2018 and 68% in 2020) stated that natural changes cause climate change: either alone or together with human influence. The belief in anthropogenic climate change declined by 0.09 percent unit (p ≤ 0.0001) from 2018 to 2020 with the respondents answering to both surveys (Appendix 3).
Women agreed with anthropogenic origin of climate change more than men did (Appendix 5). Differences between age groups were found, but only the youngest (<30 years) differed from the group of 51–70 years old. The higher educated farmers believed more frequently in the anthropogenic origin of climate change than the less educated farmers. Organic farmers considered climate change more often to be of anthropogenic origin than conventional farmers, as did farmers with smaller farms when compared to those with bigger farms. Geographically, belief in anthropogenic climate change was higher in Åland, Southern and Eastern parts of Finland than in Western and Northern Finland. Views did not differ based on farm type.
Farmers’ views on the anthropogenic origin of climate change had changed from 2018 to 2020 in most of the background variable groups when we studied the change within the groups (Appendix 8). Women showed no statistically significant change in their views, but men believed less in the anthropogenic origins of climate change than before. The age groups of 31–50 and 51–70 also showed a decline in mean, as did the vocationally trained farmers, organic and conventional farmers and all the farm size groups. Cereal farmers, special crop farmers and the farm type “other” together with geographical groups of Western and Eastern Finland also showed a decline in mean in 2020 compared to their mean scores in 2018.
Climate change is clearly understood as a threat to global agriculture, as 74% of the farmers agreed and only 7% disagreed with this statement in 2018 (Appendix 3, Fig. 2). For Finnish agriculture, the view was different as a third of farmers considered climate change a threat and another third disagreed it to be a threat. There was no change in the threat views of farmers from 2018 to 2020 (Appendix 3). Women and organic farmers considered the threat to be more serious both globally and locally than men and conventional farmers (Appendix 5). No differences were found between other groups regarding global threat. The youngest farmers (< 30 years) differed from the age groups of 31–50 and 51–70 years in their views of climate change as a threat to Finnish agriculture, as did smaller farms compared to bigger farms. No differences were found based on education, farm type and region in respect to the threat for Finnish agriculture.
No significant changes were found when comparing the changes within the groups in 2018 and 2020, with respondents answering both surveys regarding their views on global threat (Appendix 8). The change in views on climate change being a threat, both globally and locally, was negligible, as only dairy farmers and farmers in Western part of Finland had changed their views, considering climate change less of a threat to Finnish agriculture in 2020 than in 2018.
Some Finnish farmers also acknowledged that climate change will bring opportunities to Finnish agriculture besides the threats, although personal opportunities were seen smaller than the general ones (Fig. 2, Appendix 3). According to 52% of the farmers, climate change creates new opportunities for Finnish agriculture, and 42% think that the yields will increase in Finland due to climate change. However, only 19% of the farmers agreed that their own farm will benefit from climate change and 12% expected climate change to bring economic benefits. There was a lot of uncertainty among the farmers, as a large share of them neither disagreed nor agreed, although this might also reflect hesitancy to state one’s true opinions. The change in means from 2018 to 2020 was positive for all the opportunity statements (Fig. 2, Appendix 3).
Genders did not differ in their views that climate change creates new opportunities for Finnish agriculture, but men were more positive on all the other opportunity statements (Appendix 5). Age groups did not differ with respect to the opportunity statements. Farmers with higher education answered more frequently than those with lower education that climate change creates new opportunities for Finnish agriculture, that yields will increase and that they will economically benefit from climate change. Conventional farmers considered more often than organic farmers that climate change will be more beneficial than harmful to agriculture in Finland. Organic farmers were more positive that climate change will create new opportunities for Finnish agriculture. Farmers with bigger farms (100 ha or more) saw more benefits from climate change than those with smaller farms, but no differences between farm types were found. As for regions, the only differences were in the question concerning personal economic benefit; farmers in the Northern Finland were more pessimistic than those in the other regions.
Changes were positive and marked between the two surveys in almost all groups for statements on climate change as an opportunity (Appendix 8). Exceptions were women, < 30 and ≥ 71 years old farmers, the “others” group in education, horticultural producers and farmers from Åland, as they had not changed their views in any of the opportunity statements.
Responsibility to mitigate and adapt to climate change in agriculture
In general, farmers responded that actions should be taken in agriculture to mitigate climate change, but there was, again, a lot indecisiveness among farmers (Fig. 3). The psychological distance trend (agricultural sector’s view, farmers’ general view and personal view) was of importance as more responsibility for action was required in case the action was further away from the farmer level. When half of the farmers supported the participation of the agricultural sector to climate change mitigation and 49% thought mitigation is farmers’ responsibility in 2018, only 34% thought that they should reduce emissions at their own farms.
There were no changes in overall farmer responses from 2018 to 2020 concerning the agricultural sector participation to mitigation and personal reduction of emissions. However, the statement “climate change is farmers’ responsibility” saw a noteworthy decline in the farmers’ responsibility statement (Fig. 3, Appendix 3). In 2018, the statement was presented as a negation (climate change is not farmers’ responsibility) and then rotated for comparative analysis. The change was so high that we need to credit some of that change to the different formulation of the question.
There was a similar distance trend as described above when considering the differences between groups in all the mitigation statements (Appendix 6). More support was given to the agricultural sector’s participation to climate change mitigation by women, 51–70 year olds, university-educated farmers, organic producers, smaller farm owners and horticultural producers as well as farmers from Åland than did their counterpart groups (i.e. men, younger, less educated and conventionally farming, larger farms owners, dairy and pig farmers and farmers from mainland Finland) (Appendix 6). Similar trend was found with other statements on mitigation responsibility, with the exception of farm type that did not differ regarding personal and farmer responsibility for mitigation.
Organic farmers and the smallest farms had changed their view slightly towards more negative and pig farmers more positive concerning agricultural sector’s participation to mitigation when looking at the changes within the background variable groups from 2018 to 2020 (Appendix 9). Furthermore, the smallest farms had a more negative view on the personal mitigation responsibility, while all the other groups had the same views as previously. Changes were found in almost all background variable groups in the statement concerning farmers’ responsibility on mitigation. The views had become more negative compared to 2018 (e.g. women − 1.04 percent unit; 30 and under year group − 1.14). Although there was a small difference in the formulation of the statement from 2018 to 2020, that explains at least partly the seemingly large shifts in opinions.
Support for climate change adaptation actions was clearly higher than that for mitigation (Appendix 3, Fig. 3.). Farmers considered personal responsibilities to be higher for adaptation than for mitigation: 72% thought that they have to take adaptation action and 70% that they need to invest in adapting to future precipitation increases. The overall change in adaptation action views between 2018 and 2020 was slightly positive with farmers’ own responsibility for maintaining soil conditions and agricultural sectors need to invest for preparatory activities (Appendix 3, Fig. 3). However, their views were more negative in 2020 concerning their own action on soil management and investment for water management than in 2018.
Men and the owners of the largest farms supported farmer’s responsibilities for maintaining soil conditions and investment on basic and local drying of the fields more than women and owners of smaller farms did. There were no differences between the other groups (Appendix 6). Need for personal adaptation action did not differ depending on gender but support for farmer’s own investment was higher among men, while sector level investments among woman farmers. No systematic pattern was found between education groups and regions towards all adaptation statements, despite significant differences. Organic producers and farmers with bigger farm units tended to give more support to adaptation actions than conventional or smaller farms did. The adaptation statements did not differ depending on farmer’s age (Appendix 6).
Views towards adaptation responsibility within groups were clearly more negative in 2020 than in 2018 (Appendix 9). Views on mitigation divided respondents into clearly definable opposing groups (men/women, organic/conventional and high/low education), whereas views on adaptation had changed towards a more negative direction for personal adaptation action and need for farmers’ investment.
Possibilities to mitigate and adapt to climate change in agriculture
In general, farmers’ views on their possibilities to influence climate change mitigation were encouraging (Fig. 4, Appendix 3). A large majority of farmers (65%) agreed that farmers can mitigate climate emissions with farming practices and that their own farming choices influence climate emissions (54%). Respondents were, however, a bit more uncertain with their own possibility to mitigate at their own farm (40% agreed; 22% disagreed) (Fig. 4). All responses to mitigation possibility statements had become more positive from 2018 to 2020, especially farmer’s mitigation possibilities at their own farm (+0.23 percent unit) (Fig. 4, Appendix 3).
Responses for the four opportunities statements did not differ depending on age and farm type (Appendix 7). Women farmers were more positive than men on mitigation opportunities, as were highly educated farmers compared to those with lower education and organic farmers compared to conventional ones. Farm size had no impact on the statements of mitigation potential at the general farmer’s level, but at personal level, larger unit owners thought more often that they could mitigate at their own farm and that their farming choices influenced GHG emissions more than farmers with smaller units. Regionally, farmers from Åland were more positive on farmers’ general level possibilities to mitigate than farmers from Western and Northern Finland. Changes from 2018 to 2020 within the background variable groups in mitigation possibility statements were positive in almost all groups (Appendix 10).
Farmer’s own possibilities to mitigate climate change were more positive than those to adapt to it (Fig. 4, Appendix 3). Again, the personal opportunities were considered to be modest when compared to those at general farmer and sector levels (Fig. 4). Regarding personal adaptation, 41% of the respondents agreed that they can adapt to climate change impacts at their own farm, while 19% disagreed and 40% were indecisive. There was no change between the mean values of statements from 2018 to 2020 (Fig. 4).
Male respondents, organic producers and younger farmers saw adaptation possibilities more positively than female farmers, conventional producers and older respondents (Appendix 7). More highly educated farmers and larger farm owners trusted more in their possibilities to adapt than less educated farmers and small farm owners. There were no differences between farm types or regions. The changes in statement means were negligible from 2018 to 2020 (Appendix 10).
Connections between climate change views and values
Farmers who believed that climate change is of anthropogenic origin considered it a threat to both global and Finnish agriculture, felt responsibility for mitigation and adaptation actions, and considered possibilities to mitigate more positively than respondents who denied climate change to be of anthropogenic origin (all correlations are shown in Appendix 11). However, belief in anthropogenic origin did not associate with possibilities to adapt to climate change. From the personal values studied, only the universalism values correlated with belief of the anthropogenic origin of climate change. Farmers who believed that climate change is a great global threat, also tended to believe in anthropogenic origin of climate change.
Farmers who believed that climate change was an opportunity for Finnish agriculture also saw better opportunities for adaption and did not consider climate change to be such a serious threat. The view that climate change is a threat to Finnish agriculture correlated positively with anthropogenic climate change view, global threat to agriculture and responsibility for mitigation, but negatively with the view that climate change is an opportunity and the possibility to adapt. The highest correlations were found between responsibility for climate change mitigation and possibility to mitigate (r = 0.70). Farmers who felt more responsibility agreed that climate change was of anthropogenic origin and is a threat to agriculture both globally and locally, and that farmers have adaptation responsibilities and also possibilities. Positive correlation was found also between responsibility to mitigate and the three universalism values. Farmers who felt responsibility towards climate change adaptation considered that climate change is of anthropogenic origin, global threat to agriculture, mitigation responsibility and possibility and adaptation possibility. Low correlation was found between adaptation responsibility and the universalism values.
The farmers’ view on their own possibilities to mitigate climate change correlated with anthropogenic climate change view, global and local threat to agriculture, mitigation responsibility, adaptation responsibility, adaptation possibility and the universalism values on a low level. Possibility to adapt to climate change correlated positively with climate change seen as an opportunity to Finnish agriculture, mitigation responsibility (r = 0.24) and adaptation responsibility and mitigation possibility. Low negative correlation was found between possibility to adapt and consideration of climate change as a threat to Finnish agriculture. Adaptation possibility had no meaningful correlations with any of the values in the study.