Climatic Change

, Volume 132, Issue 4, pp 645–660 | Cite as

Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe

Article

Abstract

This study analyses the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in the European Union (EU) and provides long-term (2100) projections accounting for climate adaptation in terms of holiday duration and frequency. Our analysis is based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining accommodation and travel cost estimations. Our results suggest that climatic change is likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for tourism activities. In certain regions, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean regions, climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to −0.45 % of GDP per year. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European regions would gain from altered climatic conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32 % of GDP on an annual basis. Our results also suggest that the change in holiday duration would be more beneficial than the change in holiday frequency in view of mitigating the cost of climate change. These two time dimensions of adaptation are likely to be conditioned by broader societal and institutional factors, however.

References

  1. Amelung B, Moreno A (2009) Impact of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA – tourism study. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports EUR 24114, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionGoogle Scholar
  2. Amelung B, Moreno A (2012) Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Clim Chang 112(1):83–100CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Amelung B, Nicholls S, Viner D (2007) Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. J Travel Res 45(3):285–296Google Scholar
  4. Barrios S, Ibañez JN (2013) Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: An integrated analysis for EU regions. Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Scientific and Policy Report 80898, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, SevilleGoogle Scholar
  5. Barrios S, Ibañez JN (2014) Climate amenities and adaptation to climate change: a hedonic-travel cost approach for Europe. Working Papers 2014.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico MatteiGoogle Scholar
  6. Berrittella M, Bigano A, Roson R, Tol RSJ (2007) A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. Tour Manag 27(5):913–924CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Brög WEE, Schulze B (2003) DATELINE design and application of a travel survey for long-distance trips based on an international network of expertise, Project Report, Brussels, European CommissionGoogle Scholar
  8. Brown G, Mendelsohn R (1984) The hedonic travel cost method. Rev Econ Stat 66:427–433CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ciscar JC, Iglesias A, Feyen L, Szabó L, Van Regemorter D, Amelung B, Nicholls R, Watkiss P, Christensen OB, Dankersc R, Garrote L, Goodess CM, Hunt A, Moreno A, Richards J, Soria A (2011) Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108(7):2678–2683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dosio A (2011) Analysis of the ENSMBLES high resolution A1B climate change simulations. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, IspraGoogle Scholar
  11. Dosio A, Paruolo P (2011) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high‐resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: evaluation on the present climate. J Geophys Res: Atmos 116:(D16). doi:10.1029/2011JD015934
  12. Dosio A, Paruolo P, Rojas R (2012) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: analysis of the climate change signal. J Geophys Res 117:1–24Google Scholar
  13. Englin J, Mendelsohn R (1991) A hedonic travel cost analysis for valuation of multiple components of site quality: the recreation value of forest management. J Environ Econ Manag 21(3):275–290Google Scholar
  14. Eurostat (2012) Tourism in Europe: Results for 2011, Statistics in Focus 2012Google Scholar
  15. Eurostat (2014) Tourism statistics - characteristics of tourism trips - Seasonality in tourism demand. Eurostat, Statistics Explained, European CommissionGoogle Scholar
  16. Hall CM, Higham JE (eds) (2005) Tourism, recreation, and climate change, vol 22. Channel View Publications.Google Scholar
  17. Hamilton JM, Maddison D, Tol RSJ (2005) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob Environ Chang 15(3):253–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hodrick RJ, Prescott EC (1997) Postwar US Business cycles: an empirical investigation. J Money, credit, Bank 29(1):1–16Google Scholar
  19. Linden van der P, Mitchell JFB (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts. Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, ExeterGoogle Scholar
  20. Lise W, Tol RS (2002) Impact of climate on tourist demand. Clim Chang 55(4):429–449Google Scholar
  21. Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourists. Clim Chang 49(1/2):193–208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Maddison D, Bigano A (2003) The amenity value of the Italian climate. J Environ Econ Manag 45(2):319–332Google Scholar
  23. Morris D, Walls M (2009) Climate change and outdoor recreation resources. Resources for the Future, Backgrounder, April, Washington D.C.Google Scholar
  24. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. In: Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  25. Pendleton L, Mendelsohn R (2000) Estimating recreation preferences using hedonic travel cost and random utility models. Environ Resour Econ 17:89–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Rosselló J, Santana-Gallego M (2014) Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios. Clim Chang 124(1-2):119–132Google Scholar

Copyright information

© European Union 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological StudiesSevilleSpain

Personalised recommendations