Climatic Change

, Volume 132, Issue 4, pp 645–660 | Cite as

Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe



This study analyses the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in the European Union (EU) and provides long-term (2100) projections accounting for climate adaptation in terms of holiday duration and frequency. Our analysis is based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining accommodation and travel cost estimations. Our results suggest that climatic change is likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for tourism activities. In certain regions, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean regions, climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to −0.45 % of GDP per year. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European regions would gain from altered climatic conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32 % of GDP on an annual basis. Our results also suggest that the change in holiday duration would be more beneficial than the change in holiday frequency in view of mitigating the cost of climate change. These two time dimensions of adaptation are likely to be conditioned by broader societal and institutional factors, however.


European Union Hedonic Price European Union Region Tourism Demand Hedonic Price Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We would like to thank Mate Rozsai for useful assistance with the data and Alessandro Dosio for providing the climate data. We would also like to thank Juan Carlos Ciscar, Michael Hanemann and Mac Callaway for their very useful comments and suggestions.


The view expressed in this paper are those of the authors and shall not be attributed to the European Commission. Errors and omissions are those of the authors only.


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Copyright information

© European Union 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological StudiesSevilleSpain

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