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Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain

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Abstract

As one of the key grain-producing regions in China, the agricultural system in the North China Plain (NCP) is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited water resources and strong dependence on irrigation for crop production. Exploring the impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration (ET) is of importance for water management and agricultural sustainability. The VIP (Vegetation Interface Processes) process-based ecosystem model and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) modeling system are applied to quantify ET responses of a wheat-maize cropping system to climate change. The ensemble projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the B2 and A2 scenarios in the 2050s over the NCP are used to account for the uncertainty of the projections. The thermal time requirements (TTR) of crops are assumed to remain constant under air warming conditions. It is found that in this case the length of the crop growth period will be shortened, which will result in the reduction of crop water consumption and possible crop productivity loss. Spatially, the changes of ET during the growth periods (ETg) for wheat range from −7 to 0 % with the average being −1.5 ± 1.2 % under the B2 scenario, and from −8 to 2 % with the average being −2.7 ± 1.3 % under the A2 scenario/consistently, changes of ETg for maize are from −10 to 8 %, with the average being −0.4 ± 4.9 %, under the B2 scenario and from −8 to 8 %, with the average being −1.2 ± 4.1 %, under the A2 scenario. Numerical analysis is also done on the condition that the length of the crop growth periods remains stable under the warming condition via breeding new crop varieties. In this case, TTR will be higher and the crop water requirements will increase, with the enhancement of the productivity. It is suggested that the options for adaptation to climate change include no action and accepting crop loss associated with the reduction in ETg, or breeding new cultivars that would maintain or increase crop productivity and result in an increase in ETg. In the latter case, attention should be paid to developing improved water conservation techniques to help compensate for the increased ETg.

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Acknowledgements

This study was jointly supported by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology Projects (2010CB428404), the Natural Science Foundation of China grants (31171451), and the Key Project for the Strategic Science Plan in IGSNRR, CAS (2012ZD003), Thanks to Prof. Zongliang Yang at the University of Arizona, USA for his support in using WRF system when the second co-author was working with him supported by Sino-US PhD joint-training program. Many thanks to Marilyn Pomeroy for polishing the English of the manuscript in its final stage.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xingguo Mo, Ruiping Guo, Suxia Liu, Zhonghui Lin & Shi Hu

  2. Nuclear and Radiation Safety Centre, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing, 100082, China

    Ruiping Guo

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  1. Xingguo Mo
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  2. Ruiping Guo
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  3. Suxia Liu
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  4. Zhonghui Lin
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  5. Shi Hu
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Correspondence to Xingguo Mo.

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Mo, X., Guo, R., Liu, S. et al. Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain. Climatic Change 120, 299–312 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0823-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0823-3

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