Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Most climate change studies on high elevation ecosystems identify changes in biota, while several report abiotic factors. However, very few report expansion of the freeze-free period, or discuss monthly changes of temperature and growing degree days (GDD) during the growing season. This study provides initial data on agriculturally-related aspects of climate change during the growing season (M-J-J-A-S) in the inter-montane desert of the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado. Temperature data were gathered from 7 climate stations within the SLV. Based on ordinal days, the last vernal freeze is occurring (p < 0.05) earlier at 3 stations than in prior years, ranging between 5.52 and 11.86 days during 1981–2007. Significantly-later autumnal freezes are occurring at 5 stations by 5.95–18.10 days, while expansion of the freeze-free period was significantly longer at all stations by 7.20–24.21 days. The freeze-free period averaged about 93 days prior to the 1980s, but now averages about 107 days. Increases (p < 0.05) in daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature occurred at nearly all stations for each month. Increases in GDD10, GDD4.4 (potato) and GDD5.5 (alfalfa) also occurred at nearly all stations for all months during 1994–2007. Higher temperatures increase the number of GDD, quickening crop growth and maturity, and potentially reducing yield and quality unless varieties are adapted to changes and water is available for the season extension and increased evapotranspiration.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aber JD, Ollinger SV, Federer CA, Beich P, Goulden ML, Kicklighter DW, Melillo JM, Lathrop RG Jr (1995) Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States. Clim Res 5:207–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams RM (1989) Global climate change and agriculture: an economic perspective. Am J Agric Econ 71:1272–1279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol 165:351–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Ambenje P, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111

  • Angevin F, Klein EK, Choimet C, Gauffreteau A, Lavigne C, Messéan A, Meynard JM (2008) Modelling impacts of cropping systems and climate on maize cross-pollination in agricultural landscape: the MAPOD model. Eur J Agron 28:471–484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer TM, Brown VK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Whittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Change Biol 8:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaubien EG, Freeland HJ (2000) Spring phenology trends in Alberta, Canada: links to ocean temperature. Int J Biometeorol 44:53–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bezemer TM, Jones TH, Knight KJ (1998) Long-term effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on populations of the peach potato aphid Myzus persicae and its parasitoid Aphidius matricariae. Oecologia 116:128–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boland GJ, Melzer MS, Hopkin A, Higgins V, Nassuth A (2004) Climate change and plant diseases in Ontario. Can J Plant Pathol 26:335–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonsal BR, Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD (2001) Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada. J Clim 14:1959–1976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proc Natl Acad Sci 96:9701–9704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brasier CM, Scott JK (1994) European oak declines and global warming: a theoretical assessment with special reference to the activity of Phytophthora cinnamomi. EPPO Bull 24:221–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breazeale D, Kettle R, Munk G (1999) Fact Sheet 99-71. http://www.unce.unr.edu/publications/files/ag/other/fs9971.pdf. Accessed 6/24/2008

  • Bucher A, Dessens J (1991) Secular trends of surface temperature at an elevated observatory in the Pyrenees. J Clim 4:859–868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buishand TA (1981) The analysis of homogeneity of long-term rainfall records in the Netherlands. K.N.M.I. Scientific report 81-7, The Netherlands, p 42

  • Cannell MGR, Smith RI (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. J Appl Ecol 20:951–963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR, Kammerdiener SA, Dettinger MD, Caprio JM, Peterson DH (2001) Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 82:399–415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chakraborty S, Tiedemann AV, Teng PS (2000) Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases. Environ Pollut 108:317–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colbach N, Lucas P, Meynard J-M (1997) Influence of crop management on take-all development and disease cycles on winter wheat. Phytopathol 87:26–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Craddock JM (1979) Methods of comparing annual rainfall records for climatic purposes. Weather 34:332–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CSU(a). Colorado State University Cooperative Extension – San Luis Valley Research Center (2003) San Luis Valley crop statistics summary. http://www.colostate.edu/Dept/SLVRC/. Accessed 9/23/2006

  • CSU(b). Colorado State University Cooperative Extension – San Luis Valley Research Center. (2003) Agriculture: Lifeblood of the San Luis Valley. http://www.colostate.edu/Dept/SLVRC/. Accessed 9/23/2006

  • Derscheid L, Lytle W (1981) http://sdces.sdstate.edu/ces_website/hit_counter.cfm?item=FS522&id=607. Accessed 6/24/2008

  • Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (1995) Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California. J Clim 8:606–623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz HF, Bradley RS (1997) Temperature variations during the last century at high elevation sites. Clim Change 36:253–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drake BG, Gonzàlez-Meler MA, Long SP (1997) More efficient plants: a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2? Annu Rev Plant Physiol Plant Mol Biol 48:609–639

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Reaumur RAF (1735) Observations du thermometre, faites a Paris pendant l’annee, compares avec celles qui ont ete faites sous la ligne, a l’lsle de France, a Alger et en quelques-unes de nos isles de I’Amerique. Memoires de l’Academie des Sciences, p 545

  • Easterling WE, Crosson PR, Rosenburg NJ, McKenney MS, Katz LA, Lemon KM (1993) Paper 2. Agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. Clim Change 24:23–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling WE, Mearns LO, Hays CJ, Marx D (2001) Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: part II. Accounting for adaptation and CO2 direct effects. Clim Change 51:173–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng S, Hu Q (2004) Changes in agro-meteorological indicators in the contiguous United States: 1951–2000. Theor Appl Climatol 78:247–264

    Google Scholar 

  • Finger R, Schmid S (2008) Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change. Agric Financ Rev 68:25–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finnerty B, Ramirez JA (1995) Impact assessment study of climate change on evapotranspiration and irrigated agriculture in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, from AWRA 31st Annual Conference and Symposia. Houston, TX

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Frohberg K, Parry ML, Rosenzweig C (1996) The potential effects of climate change on world food production and security. In: Bazzaz F, Sombroek W (eds) Global climate change and agricultural production. Direct and indirect effects of changing hydrological, pedological and plant physiological processes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK

  • Fleming RA, Candau J-N (1998) Influences of climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canada’s boreal forests and the implications for biodiversity. Environ Monit Assess 49:235–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franc GD, Nnodu EC, Harrison MD, Sadler AJ (1983) Evaluation of sprinkler application of fungicides for control of potato early blight in Colorado. Am J Potato Res 60:631–643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frank AB, Hofmann L (1989) Relationship among grazing management, growing degree-days, and morphological development for native grasses on the Northern Great Plains. J Range Mana 42:199–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Shields-Brodeur C, Bates GT (1994) Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model. J Clim 7:375–399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grundy AC, Phelps K, Reader RJ, Burston S (2000) Modelling the germination of Stellaria media using the concept of hydrothermal time. New Phytol 148:433–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Lebedeff S (1987) Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J Geophys Res 92:13,345–13,372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Imhoff M, Lawrence W, Easterling D, Peterson T, Karl T (2001) A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res 106:23,947–23,963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Makiko S, Reto R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103:14288–14293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartz TK, Moore FDIII (1978) Prediction of potato yield using temperature and insolation data. Amer Potato J 55:431–436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hassall C, Thompson DJ, French GC, Harvey IF (2007) Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate. Glob Change Biol 13:933–941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrington P (1996) Climate change and the demand for water. Dept. of the Environ. HMSO, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Hijmansa RJ, Forbes GA, Walker TS (2000) Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GIS-linked disease forecast models. Plant Pathol 49:697–705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 881

  • IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp 104

  • Keeling CD, Chin JFS, Whorf TP (1996) Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements. Nature 382:146–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim DS, Lee JH, Yiem MS (2000) Spring emergence pattern of Carposina sasakii (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) in apple orchards in Korea and its forecasting models based on degree-days. Environ Entomol 29:1188–1198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King G (2007) The hottest and coldest places in the conterminous United States. Yearb Assoc Pac Coast Geogr 69:101–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Losey JE, Vaughan M (2006) The economic value of ecological services provided by insects. Bioscience 56:311–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maggioni L, Lipman E (2010) Report of a working group on grain legumes. Fourth Meeting, 16–17 November 2007. Lisbon, Portugal. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy

  • Manzer FE, Gudmestad NC, Nelson GA (1987) Factors affecting infection, disease development, and symptom expression of bacterial ring rot. Amer J Potato Res 64:671–676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarty JP (2001) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conserv Biol 15:320–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menne M, Duchon CE (2000) A method for monthly detection of inhomogeneities and errors in daily maximum and minimum temperatures. J Atmos Ocean Technol 18:1136–1149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menzel A, Fabian P (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659–660

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mix K (2010) A multi-dimensional analysis of the upper Rio Grande-San Luis Valley social-ecological system. Dissertation. Texas State University

  • Mix K, Lopes VL, Rast W (2011a) Annual and growing season climate changes in the alpine desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Water Air Soil Poll 220:189–203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mix K, Lopes VL, Rast W (2011b) Environmental drivers of streamflow change in the upper Rio Grande. doi:10.1007/s11269-011-9916-9

  • Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani RR (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386:698–702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NCDC (a) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/ann/global.html#Gtemp. Accessed 6/25/2008

  • NCDC (b) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html. Accessed 6/25/2008

  • Ojeda-Bustamante W, Sifuentes-Ibarra E, Slack DC, Carrillo M (2004) Generalization of irrigation scheduling parameters using the growing degree days concept: application to a potato crop. Irrigat Drain 53:251–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Page ES (1955) A test for a change in a parameter occurring at an unknown point. Biometrika 42:523–527

    Google Scholar 

  • Page ES (1957) On problems in which a change in a parameter occurs at an unknown point. Biometrika 44:248–252

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pimentel D, Wilson C, McCullum C, Huang R, Dwen P, Flack J, Tran Q, Saltman T, Cliff B (1997) Economic and environmental benefits of biodiversity. Bioscience 47:747–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porter JH, Parry ML, Carter TR (1991) The potential effects of climatic change on agricultural insect pests. Agric For Meteorol 57:221–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pscheidt JW, Stevenson WR (1988) The critical period for control of early blight (Alternaria solani) of potato. Am J Potato Res 65:425–438

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, Foley JA, Norman J, Mcsweeney K (2002) The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11:377–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez JA, Finnerty B (1996) CO2 and temperature effects on evapotranspiration and irrigated agriculture. J Irrigat Drain Eng 122:155–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rebetez M, Dobbertin M (2004) Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps. Theor Appl Climatol 79:1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reilly J, Tubiello F, McCarl B, Abler D, Darwin R, Fuglie K, Hollinger S, Izaurralde C, Jagtap S, Jones J, Mearns L, Ojima D, Paul E, Paustian K, Riha S, Rosenberg N, Rosenzweig C (2003) U.S. agriculture and climate change: new results. Clim Change 57:43–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Yang XB, Epstein PR, Chivian E (2000) Climate change and U.S. agriculture: the impacts of warming and extreme weather events on productivity, plant diseases, and pests. Center For Health And The Global Environment, http://chge.med.harvard.edu/publications/index.html. Accessed 8/25/2008

  • Salinger MJ, Mullan AB (1999) New Zealand climate: temperature and precipitation variations and their links with atmospheric circulation 1930–1994. Int J Climatol 19:1049–1071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schimmelpfennig D, Lewandrowski J, Reilly J, Tsigas M, Parry I (1996) Agricultural adaptation to climate change: Issues of long-run sustainability. Agric Econ Rep No (AER740), p 68

  • Singh B, El Maayar M, Andre P, Bryant CR, Thouez JP (1998) Impacts of a GHG-induced climate change on crop yields: effects of acceleration in maturation, moisture stress and optimal temperature. Clim Change 38:51–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SLVDG – San Luis Valley Development Group (2002) Comprehensive economic development strategy. http://www.slvdrg.org/ceds_historic.php. Last accessed 4/2009

  • Snyder RL, Spano D, Cesaraccio C, Duce P (1999) Determining degree-day thresholds from field observations. Int J Biometeorol 42:177–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sombroek WG, Gommes R (1996) The climate change - agriculture conundrum in Global climate change and agricultural production. Direct and indirect effects of changing hydrological, pedological and plant physiological processes. In: Bazzaz F, Sombroek W (eds) Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations and John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK

  • Taylor W. http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint.html. Accessed 6/15/2008

  • Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102:8245–8250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin J-M, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward NL, Masters JM (2007) Linking climate change and species invasion: an illustration using insect herbivores. Glob Change Biol 13:1605–1615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weber RO, Talkner P, Stefanicki G (1994) Asymmetric diurnal temperature change in the Alpine region. Geophys Res Lett 21:673–676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whittaker JB, Tribe NP (1996) An altitudinal transect as an indicator of responses of a spittlebug (Auchenorrhyncha: Cercopidae) to climate change. Eur J Entomol 93:319–324

    Google Scholar 

  • White MA, de Beurs KM, Didan K, Inouye DW, Richardson AD, Jensen OP, Magnuson J, O’Keefe J, Zhang G, Nemani RR, van Leeuwen WJD, Brown JF, de Wit A, Schaepman M, Lin X, Dettinger M, Bailey A, Kimball J, Schwartz MD, Baldocchi DD, Lee JT, Lauenroth WK (2009) Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006. Glob Change Biol 15:2335–2359. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01910.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woiwod IP (1997) Detecting the effects of climate change on Lepidoptera. J Insect Conserv 1:149–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) at Ashville, NC and Claude Williams for their assistance and for providing annual data free of discontinuities. In addition, we would to thank Nolen Doesken, Colorado State Climatologist, at Fort Collins, for his assistance on the San Luis Valley.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agriculture, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX, 78666, USA

    Ken Mix

  2. Department of Biology, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX, 78666, USA

    Vicente L. Lopes & Walter Rast

Authors
  1. Ken Mix
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Vicente L. Lopes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Walter Rast
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ken Mix.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Table S-1

Results of t-test analyses for the ordinal day of the last vernal and first autumnal freezes and length of the freeze-free period in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Negative values in the difference column for the vernal dates indicates an earlier last freeze. (DOCX 18 kb)

Table S-2

Results of t-test analyses for maximum temperature of each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in the average maximum temperature. (DOCX 19 kb)

Table S-3

Results of t-test analyses for minimum temperature of each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in the average minimum temperature. (DOCX 19 kb)

Table S-4

Results of t-test analyses for mean temperature of each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in the average mean temperature. (DOCX 19 kb)

Table S-5

Results of t-test analyses for GDD10 for each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in mean GDD. (DOCX 19 kb)

Table S-6

Results of t-test analyses for GDD4.4 for each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in mean GDD. (DOCX 19 kb)

Table S-7

Results of t-test analyses for GDD5.5 for each month of the growing season in the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Difference represents the daily increase or decrease in mean GDD. (DOCX 19 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mix, K., Lopes, V.L. & Rast, W. Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Climatic Change 114, 723–744 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0448-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0448-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation