Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Global warming and rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 yr band in Western Europe and Eastern North America

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

From joint wavelet analysis of long-wavelength baroclinic Rossby waves and SST anomalies in the 5–10 yr band in the North and tropical Atlantic, and Reduced Rainfall Height (RRH) in Western Europe and Eastern North America, some key mechanisms involved in the interannual rainfall variability are highlighted. Systematic work has been undertaken to highlight the resonance of long planetary waves in the tropical oceans. Quasi-stationary Waves (QSWs) are produced resulting from the combination of gravitational forces and trade wind stress or ENSO events to compensate for energy lost in the resonator and, above all, to produce a strong modulated output current at the open end, contributing to the western boundary currents. Gravitational forces are resulting from the topography of the surface of the ocean at the antinodes, the dimension of the basin and the wavelength of planetary waves involved in the resonance being of the same order of magnitude. Remote resonances occur at critical latitudes, nearly 40°N and 40°S, forming QSWs the role of which is crucial in the functioning of sub-tropical gyres. In the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, an 8-yr period QSW appears to have a decisive role in the interannual rainfall variability. The pattern of SST anomalies depends on buoyancy of the advected layer associated with this QSW, which is controlled by the amplitude and the phase of long-period sub-harmonics. Rainfall oscillation in Western Europe has occurred for some decades and extended as the dipole formed by SST anomalies on both antinodes became unbalanced, due to the emergence of the advected layer further north. Since then cyclonic or anticyclonic conditions are prevailing at midlatitudes, depending on the polarity. Strengthening of RRH anomalies in Eastern North America is attributed to the buoyancy of the advected layer that re-circulates along the sub-tropical gyre, which evidences the excitation of long-period sub-harmonics, too. Frequency of exceptional events increased in areas heavily exposed to RRH anomalies, subject to oceanic influences even during extreme events, as this occurs in the north of France. Changes in rainfall patterns is attributed to global warming, i.e. the resonance of long-period sub-harmonics associated with solar magnetic cycles whose amplitude has increased drastically at the end of the second millennium, not including the possible contribution of greenhouse gas emissions whose impact on climate is non-resonant.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17
Fig. 18
Fig. 19

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abatzoglou JT, Magnusdottir G (2006) Planetary wave breaking and nonlinear reflection: seasonal cycle and interannual variability. J Clim 19(23):6139–6152. doi:10.1175/JCLI3968.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andreo B, Jiménez P, Durán JJ, Carrasco F, Vadillo I, Mangin A (2006) Climatic and hydrological variations during the last 117–166 years in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, from spectral and correlation analyses and continuous wavelet analyses. J Hydrol 324(1–4):24–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baines PG, Folland CK (2007) Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. J Clim 20(12):2721–2744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrera A, Barriendos M, Llasat MC (2005) Extreme flash floods in Barcelona County. Adv Geosci 2:111–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonjean F, Lagerloef GSE (2002) Diagnostic Model and Analysis of the Surface Currents in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. J Phys Oceanog 32(10):2938–2954

    Google Scholar 

  • Brandimarte L, Di Baldassarre G, Bruni G, D’Odorico P, Montanari A (2010) Relation between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and hydroclimatic conditions in Mediterranean Areas. Water Resour Manag 1–11

  • Challenor PG, Cipollini P, Cromwell D (2001) Use of the 3D radon transform to examine the properties of oceanic Rossby waves. J Atmos Ocean Technol 18(9):1558–1566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cipollini P, Cromwell D, Quartly GD, Challenor PG (2000) Chapter 6 Remote sensing of oceanic extra-tropical Rossby waves. In: Halpern D (ed) Elsevier Oceanography Series, 63, 99–123. doi:10.1016/S0422-9894(00)80007-0

  • Cislaghi M, De Michele C, Ghezzi A, Rosso R (2005) Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics: analysis of long daily Italian series. Atmos Res 77(1–4 SPEC. ISS.):188–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke ML, Rendell HM (2006) The occurrence and expression of damaging floods and landslides in Southern Italy. Land Degrad Dev 17(4):365–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins M (2009) Evidence for changing flood risk in New England since the late 20th Century. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 45(2):279–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cromwell D (2001) Sea surface observations of the 34 N ‘waveguide’ in the North Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 28(19):3705–3708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delitala AMS, Cesari D, Chessa PA, Ward MN (2000) Precipitation over Sardinia (Italy) during the 1946–1993 rainy seasons and associated large-scale climate variations. Int J Climatol 20(5):519–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delrieu G, Ducrocq V, Gaume E, Nicol J, Payrastre O, Yates E, Kirstetter P-E, Andrieu H, Ayral PA, Bouvier C, Creutin JD, Livet M, Anquetin A, Lang M, Neppel L, Obled C, Parent-du-Chatelet J, Saulnier GM, Walpersdorf A, Wobrock W (2005) The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region. France: a first case study for the Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydro-meteorological Observatory. J Hydrometeorol 6. doi:10.1175/JHM-400.1

  • Dewar W (1998) On too-fast baroclinic planetary waves in the general circulation. J Phys Oceanogr 28:1739–1758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon H, Lawler DM, Shamseldin AY (2006) Streamflow trends in western Britain. Geophys Res Lett 33(19):L19406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov AV (2008) Ocean–atmosphere coupling. In: Goudie A, Cuff D (eds) Oxford companion to global change. Oxford University Press

  • Feldstein SB (2000) The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns. J Clim 13(24):4430–4440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feldstein SB (2002) The recent trend and variance increase of the annular mode. J Clim 15(3):88–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu L-L (2004) The interannual variability of the North Atlantic Ocean revealed by combined data from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimetric measurements. Geophys Res Lett 31(23):L23303. doi:10.1029/2004GL021200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallego MC, García JA, Vaquero JM (2005) The NAO signal in daily rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula. Clim Res 29(2):103–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannaford J, Marsh TJ (2008) High-flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK. Int J Climatol 28(10):1325–1338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hodson DLR, Sutton RT, Cassou C, Keenlyside N, Okumura Y, Zhou T (2010) Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: a multimodel comparison. Clim Dyn 34(7):1041–1058

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Q, Feng S (2008) Variation of the North American summer monsoon regimes and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J Clim 21(11):2371–2383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kapala A, Mächel H, Flohn H (1998) Behaviour of the centres of action above the Atlantic since 1881. Part II: Associations with regional climate anomalies. Int J Climatol 18(1):23–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiely G (1999) Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observations. Adv Water Resour 23(2):141–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lagerloef GSE, Mitchum G, Lukas R, Niiler P (1999) Tropical Pacific near-surface currents estimated from altimeter, wind and drifter data. J Geophys Res 104:23,313–23,326

    Google Scholar 

  • Lopez-Bustins J-A, Martin-Vide J, Sanchez-Lorenzo A (2008) Iberia winter rainfall trends based upon changes in teleconnection and circulation patterns. Glob Planet Chang 63(2–3):171–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ, Gimeno L (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int J Climatol 28(11):1493–1505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luque-Espinar JA, Chica-Olmo M, Pardo-Igúzquiza E, García-Soldado MJ (2008) Influence of climatological cycles on hydraulic heads across a Spanish aquifer. J Hydrol 354(1–4):33–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maraun D, Kurths J (2004) Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls. Nonlinear Process Geophys 11:505–514. doi:10.5194/npg-11-505-2004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massei N, Durand A, Deloffre J, Dupont JP, Valdes D, Laignel B (2007) Investigating possible links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and rainfall variability in Northwestern France over the past 35 years. J Geophys Res D: Atmospheres 112(9):D09121. doi:10.1029/2005JD007000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massei N, Laignel B, Deloffre J, Mesquita J, Motelay A, Lafite R, Durand A (2010) Long-term hydrological changes of the Seine River flow (France) and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation over the period 1950–2008. Int J Climatol 30:2146–2154. doi:10.1002/joc.2022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massei N, Laignel B, Rosero E, Motelay A, Deloffre J, Yang Z-L, Rossi A (2011) A wavelet approach to the intra-annual to pluridecennal variability of streamflow in the Mississippi river basin from 1934 to 1998. Int J Climatol 31:31–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millán MM, Estrela MJ, Miró J (2005) Rainfall components: variability and spatial distribution in a Mediterranean area (Valencia region). J Clim 18(14):2682–2705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munoz-Díaz D, Rodrigo FS (2004) Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the probability of dry and wet winters in Spain. Clim Res 27(1):33–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pegion PJ, Bourassa MA, Legler DM, O'Brien JJ (2000) Objectively-derived daily "winds" from satellite scatterometer data. Mon Wea Rev 128:3150–3168

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinault J-L (2012a) Long wave resonance in tropical oceans and implications on climate—the Atlantic Ocean, submitted

  • Pinault J-L (2012b) Long wave resonance in the tropical Pacific and implications on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), submitted

  • Pinault J-L (2012c) Long wave resonance in tropical oceans and implications on climate - the Indian Ocean and the far western Pacific, submitted

  • Pinault J-L (2012d) Long oceanic wave resonance at mid-latitudes Part 1: Quasi-stationary Waves, submitted

  • Pinault J-L (2012e) Long oceanic wave resonance at midlatitudes—Part 2: implications on climate variability and global warming, submitted

  • Pinault J-L (2012f) Resonant 1/2, 4 and 8-yr period rainfall oscillations on a global scale, submitted

  • Pinault J-L, Allier D (2007) Regionalization of rainfall for broad-scale modeling: an inverse approach. Water Resour Res 43:W09422. doi:10.1029/2006WR005642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinault J-L, Amraoui N, Golaz C (2005) Groundwater-induced flooding in macropore-dominated hydrological system in the context of climate changes. Water Resour Res 41:W05001. doi:10.1029/2004WR003169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pokrovsky OM (2009) European rain rate modulation enhanced by changes in the NAO and atmospheric circulation regimes. Comput Geosci 35(5):897–906

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rivière G, Orlanski I (2007) Characteristics of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity and its relation with North Atlantic Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 64(2):241–266. doi:10.1175/JAS3850.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodó X, Baert E, Comin FA (1997) Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 13(4):275–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Serrano E, Castro M (2006) Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and northern African winter climate. Int J Climatol 26(2):179–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodwell MJ, Rowell DP, Folland CK (1999) Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398:320–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossi A, Massei N, Laignel B (2011) A synthesis of the time-scale variability of commonly used climate indices using continuous wavelet transform. Glob Planet Chang 78:1–13. doi:1016/j.gloplacha.2011.04.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos JA, Corte-Real J, Leite SM (2005) Weather regimes and their connection to the winter rainfall in Portugal. Int J Climatol 25(1):33–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide for wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79(1):61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Volkov D, Fu L-L (2010) On the reasons for the formation and variability of the Azores Current. J Phys Oceanogr, e-View

  • Wang C, Enfield DB, Lee S-K, Landsea CW (2006) Influences of the Atlantic warm pool on western hemisphere summer rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. J Clim 19(12):3011–3028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Lee S-K, Enfield DB (2008) Climate response to anomalously large and small Atlantic warm pools during the summer. J Clim 21(11):2437–2450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White WB, Chao Y, Tai C-K (1998) Coupling of biennial oceanic Rossby waves with the overlying atmosphere in the Pacific basin. J Phys Oceanogr 28:1236–1251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Liu Z (2005) North Atlantic decadal variability: air–sea coupling, oceanic memory, and potential Northern Hemisphere resonance. J Climate 18:331–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 96 rue du Port David, 45370, Dry, France

    Jean-Louis Pinault

Authors
  1. Jean-Louis Pinault
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-Louis Pinault.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pinault, JL. Global warming and rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 yr band in Western Europe and Eastern North America. Climatic Change 114, 621–650 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0432-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0432-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation