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Evaluating multifactor risks under conceptual uncertainty

  • Systems Analysis
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Cybernetics and Systems Analysis Aims and scope

A tool is proposed to evaluate multifactor risks during the operation of an innovation system of technological forecast. A modified BOCR method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is developed. It allows: integrating the situation and force majeur risk evaluation into an overall structure of decision making with the help of AHP along with evaluating benefits, costs, and opportunities for each alternative; processing expert judgments in the form of fuzzy preference relations; taking into account a time parameter, when decision factors and alternatives may be corrected or fundamentally changed during some period. Indices of the risk of subjective judgment (information risk) evaluation are developed for given point, interval, and fuzzy expert judgments and probability distribution of expert judgments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Educational Scientific Complex “Institute for Applied System Analysis” of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Kyiv Polytechnic Institute” of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

    N. D. Pankratova & N. I. Nedashkovskaya

Authors
  1. N. D. Pankratova
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  2. N. I. Nedashkovskaya
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Correspondence to N. D. Pankratova.

Additional information

Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 2, pp. 72–82, March–April 2009.

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Pankratova, N.D., Nedashkovskaya, N.I. Evaluating multifactor risks under conceptual uncertainty. Cybern Syst Anal 45, 223–231 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-009-9090-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-009-9090-8

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