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Improving Wind-Ramp Forecasts in the Stable Boundary Layer

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Abstract

The viability of wind-energy generation is dependent on highly accurate numerical wind forecasts, which are impeded by inaccuracies in model representation of boundary-layer processes. This study revisits the basic theory of the Mellor, Yamada, Nakanishi, and Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer parametrization scheme, focusing on the onset of wind-ramp events related to nocturnal low-level jets. Modifications to the MYNN scheme include: (1) calculation of new closure parameters that determine the relative effects of turbulent energy production, dissipation, and redistribution; (2) enhanced mixing in the stable boundary layer when the mean wind speed exceeds a specified threshold; (3) explicit accounting of turbulent potential energy in the energy budget. A mesoscale model is used to generate short-term (24 h) wind forecasts for a set of 15 cases from both the U.S.A. and Germany. Results show that the new set of closure parameters provides a marked forecast improvement only when used in conjunction with the new mixing length formulation and only for cases that are originally under- or over-forecast (10 of the 15 cases). For these cases, the mean absolute error (MAE) of wind forecasts at turbine-hub height is reduced on average by 17%. A reduction in MAE values on average by 26% is realized for these same cases when accounting for the turbulent potential energy together with the new mixing length. This last method results in an average reduction by at least 13% in MAE values across all 15 cases.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) through its Integrated Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT) Program, award 1069283. Partial support was provided by the NSF also under the State of Iowa EPSCoR Grant 1101284 and by funds through the Iowa State University Foundation associated with the Pioneer Hi-Bred Agronomy Professorship. Partial support was also provided by NSF gran AGS1624947. The tall-tower meteorological observations were provided through the Tall Tower Wind Measurement Project that was conducted by AWS Truepower and funded by the Iowa Energy Center and the U.S. Dept. of Energy. The tall-tower data from Germany were provided through the Hamburg Meteorological Institute associated with the University of Hamburg. The High Performance Center at Iowa State University provided the bulk of the computing resources used in this study to run WRF and WRF-LES for the suite of experiments. Appreciation is given to the reviewers, who provided very insightful and helpful comments.

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  1. Iowa State University, 1130 Coover Hall, Ames, IA, 50011, USA

    David E. Jahn, Eugene S. Takle & William A. Gallus Jr.

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  1. David E. Jahn
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  2. Eugene S. Takle
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  3. William A. Gallus Jr.
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Correspondence to David E. Jahn.

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Jahn, D.E., Takle, E.S. & Gallus, W.A. Improving Wind-Ramp Forecasts in the Stable Boundary Layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol 163, 423–446 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-017-0237-2

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