Abstract
Biodiversity hotspots, such as the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), are expected to be more affected by climate change. Three distinct areas of past climatic refugia occur in the BAF, Pernambuco, Bahia, and São Paulo, that will likely be impacted differently by climate change. To estimate the distribution of mammal assemblages in response to climate change, we built individual species distribution models for all medium and large size mammals of the BAF under past (21 kya), current and future projected climatic conditions. We evaluated changes in predicted species distribution, richness and endemism. To understand the evolutionary history of these regions, we also calculated current phylogenetic diversity. We observed high mammal richness in refugia Bahia and São Paulo, and centers of endemism congruent with refugia areas. Phylogenetic diversity revealed different evolutionary histories within each refugium, and that ecological diversity may be preserved even in areas of lower species richness (Pernambuco refugium). Most species contracted its original distribution, and endemicity varied under all future scenarios, being most impacted by a higher increase in mean annual temperature. It was projected that up to 32% of species will lose 95% of their climatic spaces and up to 73% of species will lose half of it by 2100. Our major results highlight the widespread and negative impacts of climate change on mammal distribution. Biodiversity loss due to climate change can be buffered by both reducing deforestation and prompting restoration projects. Yet, we reinforce that the action window to achieve this goal is closing rapidly.
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Data availability
The datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Professors Elder Assis Miranda and Fernando Rodrigues da Silva for their constructive insights. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for thoughtfully reviewing the manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP, 2017/23548-2). MEO and PMGJ thank Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, 141085/2019-3 and 303524/2019-7, respectively). CFG and CBM thank Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES, Finance Code 001, 2020/88887.498109).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by MEdO, CFG and CBM. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MEdO and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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de Oliveira, M.E., Gonçalves, C.F., Machado, C.B. et al. Modeling responses of Brazilian Atlantic Forest mammals assemble to climate change. Biodivers Conserv 33, 463–483 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02749-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02749-x