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Potential loss of genetic variability despite well established network of reserves: the case of the Iberian endemic lizard Lacerta schreiberi

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Abstract

Although future anthropogenic climate change is recognized as one of the major threats to European species, its implementation during reserve planning has only been started recently. We here describe climate change impacts on the Iberian endemic lizard Lacerta schreiberi expecting serious declines and range reductions due to a loss of suitable climate space in the next future. We apply species distribution models to assess possible future changes in the lizard’s range, identify areas with high extinction risk meriting conservation efforts and analyze whether the Natura 2000 network in its current stage will offer a sufficient protection for the genetically most valuable lineages. Despite a very good coverage and connectivity of the most valuable populations of L. schreiberi with the existing protected sites network, our results predict a strong loss of genetic variability by 2080. Also, two main patterns become evident: While the genetically less diverse north-western populations may be less affected by climate change, the climate change effects on the southern isolates and the genetically most diverse populations within the Central System may be devastating. To improve a successful prospective conservation of L. schreiberi the management of protected sites needs to consider the processes that threaten this species. Furthermore, our study highlights the urgent need to consider climate change effects on evolutionary significant units within the Natura 2000 framework.

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Abbreviations

IPCC:

Interngovernmental Panel on Climate Change

SDM:

Species distribution model

BIO5:

Maximum temperature of the warmest month

BIO6:

Minimum temperature of the coldest month

BIO13:

Precipitation of the wettest month

BIO14:

Precipitation of the driest month

BIO15:

Precipitation seasonality

AUC:

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve

TSS:

True skills statistics

ANN:

Artificial neural networks

CTA:

Classification tree analysis

GAM:

Generalized additive models

GBM:

Generalized boosting models

GLM:

Generalized linear models

MARS:

Multivariate adaptive regression splines

MDA:

Mixture discriminant analysis

RF:

Random forests

SRE:

Surface range envelopes

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Acknowledgments

This work benefited from a grant of the ‘Forschungsinitiative’ of the Ministry of Education, Science, Youth and Culture of the Rhineland-Palatinate state of Germany ‘Die Folgen des Global Change für Bioressourcen, Gesetzgebung und Standardsetzung’ as well as a grant of the ‘Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt’ (DBU). Two anonymous referees kindly improved the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Biogeography, Trier University, 54286, Trier, Germany

    Dennis Rödder & Ulrich Schulte

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  1. Dennis Rödder
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  2. Ulrich Schulte
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Correspondence to Dennis Rödder.

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Rödder, D., Schulte, U. Potential loss of genetic variability despite well established network of reserves: the case of the Iberian endemic lizard Lacerta schreiberi . Biodivers Conserv 19, 2651–2666 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9865-2

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