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Socio-environmental drivers of establishment of Lymantria dispar, a nonnative forest pest, in the United States

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Abstract

Geographical variation in the likelihood of biological invasions can be affected by propagule pressure and habitat suitability, which are driven by ecological and social processes. Past studies have empirically quantified the role of drivers by comparing geographical variation in numbers of invading species with variation in candidate factors; however, lack of data has limited empirical studies for individual species. Lymantria dispar (L.), a nonnative forest pest formerly known as gypsy moth, is an exemplar species for exploring invasion drivers because of extensive records on its spread. Since its establishment in eastern United States in 1869, it has been repeatedly introduced into outlying areas, prompting 325 eradication programs from 1972 to 2014. We used these eradication programs as proxies for new establishment events, with the assumption that populations would have established in the absence of eradication treatments. These proxy events were used to quantify the effects of socio-environmental factors on the probability of L. dispar arrival and establishment. Establishment probability was significantly affected by propagule pressure (distance to the previously invaded area, human population size, and the area of source outbreaks) and habitat suitability (climate and availability of host trees). The statistical model developed here can be used to predict invasions and inform surveillance strategies to more efficiently manage these invasions.

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Data availability

The dataset analyzed during the current study is provided as Supplementary File 3.

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Acknowledgements

We thank E. Luzader with assistance in geospatial data management, Anthony Man-Son-Hing and Paul Chaloux, USDA APHIS for providing data, and L. Dunlap for assistance with figures, and reviewers for their helpful insights. This work was funded in part by the USDA Forest Service. AML received support from grant EVA4.0, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE. PCT acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (DEB-1556111).

Funding

This work was funded in part by the USDA Forest Service. AML received support from grant EVA4.0, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE. PCT acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (DEB-1556111).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 20036, USA

    Rebecca Epanchin-Niell, Jieyi Lu & Alexandra Thompson

  2. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Patrick C. Tobin

  3. Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada, 1350 Regent St, P.O. Box 4000, Fredericton, NB, E3B 5P7, Canada

    David R. Gray

  4. USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV, 26505, USA

    Andrew M. Liebhold

  5. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 21, Praha 6, Suchdol, CZ, Czech Republic

    Andrew M. Liebhold

  6. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA

    Rebecca Epanchin-Niell

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  1. Rebecca Epanchin-Niell
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Correspondence to Rebecca Epanchin-Niell.

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Epanchin-Niell, R., Lu, J., Thompson, A. et al. Socio-environmental drivers of establishment of Lymantria dispar, a nonnative forest pest, in the United States. Biol Invasions 24, 157–173 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02637-x

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