Abstract
In some domains like industry, medicine, communications, speech recognition, planning, tutoring systems, and forecasting; the timing of observations (symptoms, measures, test, events, as well as faults) play a major role in diagnosis and prediction. This paper introduces a new formalism to deal with uncertainty and time using Bayesian networks called Temporal Bayesian Network of Events (TBNE). In a TBNE each node represents an event or state change of a variable, and an arc corresponds to a causal-temporal relationship. A temporal node represents the time that a variable changes state, including an option of no-change. The temporal intervals can differ in number and size for each temporal node, so this allows multiple granularity. Our approach is contrasted with a Dynamic Bayesian network for a simple medical example. An empirical evaluation is presented for a subsystem of a thermal power plant, in which this approach is used for fault diagnosis and event prediction with good results. The TBNE model can be used for the diagnosis of a cascade of anomalies arising with certain delays; this situation is typical in the diagnosis of medical and industrial processes.
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Arroyo-Figueroa, G., Sucar, L.E. Temporal Bayesian Network of Events for Diagnosis and Prediction in Dynamic Domains. Appl Intell 23, 77–86 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-005-3413-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-005-3413-x