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Building a basketball game strategy through statistical analysis of data

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Abstract

Management practices may be based either on manager’s intuition or on analytical and objective reasoning. Sports and, particularly, basketball can be considered as an indicative field where these differences in decision-making can be met. This paper has been motivated by the statistical analysis that the author conducted in the past in order to support the management of a Greek basketball team and specifically the decision-making process of its coach regarding the team’s strategy during its games. The aim of the paper is on the one hand to present some indicative, simple ideas for the statistical analysis of basketball data, and on the other hand to show that any basketball team can improve significantly its decision-making process if it chooses to be statistically supported. Basketball data is numerous; consequently its elaboration can be extensive and fruitful.

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Notes

  1. www.nba.com/celtics/contact/front-office.html.

  2. www.eurobasket.com/team.asp?Cntry=Greece&Team=276&Page=4.

  3. www.eurobasket.com/coach.asp?Cntry=TUR&CoachID=49&AmNotSure=1.

  4. In our paper we refer to a specific game of the season 1999–2000, in which IRAKLIS outperformed Maroussi 92-75. Nowadays, Maroussi (www.maroussibc.gr) is one of the greatest Greek basketball teams, participating in the Euroleague of 2009–2010, while in 2001 won its first European trophy (European Saporta Cup).

  5. A basketball game in Europe lasts for 40 min.

  6. SA determined those indexes especially for this statistical analysis.

  7. Or twosome/threesome.

  8. Strong disagreement has been expressed regarding this formula of Kubatko et al. (2007), which is an estimated measure of possessions arising through regression that is probably mis-specified. Considering the way they define a possession, an offensive rebound does not start a new possession, but a new play. However, in this equation possessions are defined in terms of missed shots, i.e. 2pAt and 3pAt, missed free throws, i.e. 1pAt, and consequently in terms of offensive rebounds.

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  1. Department of Technology Management, University of Macedonia, Logou-Tourpali, 592 00, Naoussa, Greece

    Yiannis Nikolaidis

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Nikolaidis, Y. Building a basketball game strategy through statistical analysis of data. Ann Oper Res 227, 137–159 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-013-1309-4

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