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Estimation of fungal spore concentrations associated to meteorological variables

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Abstract

A 1-year time series of fungal spore concentrations has been used to calibrate an artificial neural network for the estimation of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations associated to observed meteorological variables. Analysis of the results revealed that the daily average values of these meteorological variables are suitable to predict with high confidence the number of fungal spores that are actually observed. The calibrated neural network has also been used randomizing each single input parameter in order to evaluate which meteorological variable contributes more to the formation and the depletion of the selected fungal spores. Emphasis is given to the possibility of using the proposed model for operational activities, predicting the future spore concentrations on the basis of meteorological forecasts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio, L’Aquila, 67100, Coppito, Italy

    Antonella Angelosante Bruno, Loretta Pace & Giovanni Pacioni

  2. Centro di monitoraggio RIMA (AQ1), Università dell’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy

    Antonella Angelosante Bruno & Loretta Pace

  3. Centro di Eccellenza CETEMPS, Università dell’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy

    Barbara Tomassetti, Erika Coppola, Marco Verdecchia & Guido Visconti

  4. The Abdus Salam Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Erika Coppola

  5. Dipartimento di Fisica, Università dell’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy

    Marco Verdecchia & Guido Visconti

Authors
  1. Antonella Angelosante Bruno
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  2. Loretta Pace
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  3. Barbara Tomassetti
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  4. Erika Coppola
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  5. Marco Verdecchia
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  6. Giovanni Pacioni
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  7. Guido Visconti
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Loretta Pace.

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Angelosante Bruno, A., Pace, L., Tomassetti, B. et al. Estimation of fungal spore concentrations associated to meteorological variables. Aerobiologia 23, 221–228 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-007-9066-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-007-9066-y

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