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International Economics and Economic Policy

, Volume 12, Issue 1, pp 127–142 | Cite as

Forecasting exchange rate volatility: GARCH models versus implied volatility forecasts

  • Keith PilbeamEmail author
  • Kjell Noralf Langeland
Original Paper
First Online:

Abstract

This study investigates whether different specifications of univariate GARCH models can usefully forecast volatility in the foreign exchange market. The study compares in-sample forecasts from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models with the implied volatility derived from currency options for four dollar parities. The data set covers the period 2002 to 2012. We divide the data into two periods one for the period 2002 to 2007 which is characterised by low volatility and the other for the period 2008 to 2012 characterised by high volatility. The results of this paper reveal that the implied volatility forecasts significantly outperform the three GARCH models in both low and high volatility periods. The results strongly suggest that the foreign exchange market efficiently prices in future volatility.

Keywords

Exchange Rate Volatility modelling 

JEL classification

E44 G12 
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Notes

Acknowledgments

We are extremely grateful for comments and suggestions from participants at the annual European Economics and Finance Society conference 2013 in Berlin and the comments of the two anonymous referees.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.City University LondonLondonUK

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