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Interpretation of probability of landsliding triggered by rainfall

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Abstract

This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chit Engineering and Mining Geoserv, 17 Beszant St., Sydney, Australia

    Chit Ko Ko

  2. University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia

    Phil Flentje & Robin Chowdhury

Authors
  1. Chit Ko Ko
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  2. Phil Flentje
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  3. Robin Chowdhury
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Correspondence to Phil Flentje.

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Ko Ko, C., Flentje, P. & Chowdhury, R. Interpretation of probability of landsliding triggered by rainfall. Landslides 1, 263–275 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-004-0031-3

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