Abstract
South India’s Western Ghats are a global biodiversity hotspot and an area of conservation concern with numerous endemic species. There is an urgent need for accurate threat assessments for these species, including the Nilgiri Pipit (Anthus nilghiriensis). The Nilgiri pipit is endemic to the montane grasslands of the Western Ghats, and has experienced recent rapid habitat declines. Here, we characterize the climatic niche of this species using environmental niche modelling, and use these models to estimate its range and threat status. Using the Maxent modelling algorithm and presence data from surveys by expert observers, we find that the Nilgiri Pipit is strongly sensitive to higher temperatures. We project the best-performing models to the last glacial maximum and find evidence that the species had a considerably larger range under that climatic regime. We estimate that the extent of suitable available habitat is no more than 436 km2 even using the most conservative threshold. Based on this result, and the documented decline in and fragmentation of its habitat, we recommend that the species be uplisted to “endangered” on the IUCN Red List, from its current status of “vulnerable”. Finally, we compare these results to models based on identically processed eBird data, and find that eBird data produce larger estimates of suitable habitat: we, therefore, recommend caution in the interpretation of environmental niche models based on eBird data.
Zusammenfassung
Modelle für ökologische Nischen zeigen eine erhöhte Gefährdungsstufe für den Nilgiripieper (Anthus nilghiriensis). Die Westghats in Südindien sind ein globaler Hotspot biologischer Vielfalt und ein Gebiet, das mit seinen zahlreichen endemischen Arten unter besonderem Schutz steht. Für diese Arten, einschließlich des Nilgiripiepers (Anthus nilghiriensis), müssen dringend genaue Analysen des Bedrohungsstatus erstellt werden. Der Nilgiri-Pieper lebt in den bergigen Graslandschaften der Westghats und hat in letzter Zeit einen rapiden Schwund seines Lebensraums erfahren müssen. In dieser Studie wird die klimatische Öko-Nische dieser Art mithilfe von Modellen für ökologische Nischen dargestellt und die Modelle zur Einschätzung ihres Verbreitungsgebiets und Bedrohungsstatus genutzt. Mithilfe des Maxent-Modellierungsalgorithmus und Daten von erfahrenen Beobachtern konnten wir feststellen, dass der Nilgiripieper stark auf höhere Temperaturen reagiert. Wir rechneten die am besten passenden Modelle auf das letzte eiszeitliche Maximum hoch und fanden Hinweise darauf, dass die Art bei jenem Klima ein wesentlich größeres Verbreitungsgebiet hatte. Wir schätzen, dass selbst bei Anwendung des konservativsten Grenzwerts die Größe des geeigneten verfügbaren Lebensraums nicht mehr als 436 km2 beträgt. Auf der Grundlage dieses Ergebnisses, des dokumentierten Rückgangs und der Zerstückelung ihres Lebensraums empfehlen wir, die Art auf der Roten Liste der IUCN von ihrem derzeitigen Status „gefährdet “ auf „vom Aussterben bedroht “ hochzustufen. Schließlich vergleichen wir diese Ergebnisse mit Modellen, die auf identisch aufbereiteten eBird-Daten beruhen und stellen fest, dass eBird-Daten größere Schätzungen für geeignete Lebensräume ergeben: wir raten daher zur Vorsicht bei der Interpretation von ökologischen Nischenmodellen auf der Grundlage von eBird-Daten.
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Data availability
After careful consideration, we chose not to upload our primary data at the time of submission. The only novel data analyzed here represent locations of a threatened species; in keeping with general practice, we do not wish to make this public. All other data used herein, such as landscape and climate data, are already publicly available from the sources indicated.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the Forest Departments of Kerala and Tamil Nadu for permits (WL5(A)/12260/2017, WL10-411/2017). We thank Forest Department officers P. G. Krishnan and R. Lakshmi for support to the project. We thank A. Aravind for assistance with data collection; S. Ray and D. Khan for assistance in the field; V. Godwin, R. Pilakandy, R. Bhalla, K. Shanker, and D. Mudappa, for logistical support; V. Godwin, U. Vinod, D. Jathanna, and M. Bunyan, for critical comments on the project; and the bird research groups at IISER-Tirupati and the Field Museum for comments on the manuscript. This study was supported by National Geographic Society grant WW-186EC-17 to AL, a grant from the Duleep Matthai Nature Conservation Trust to VVR and CKV, and IISER—Tirupati funding to VVR. This research was carried out in compliance with all relevant institutional norms and Indian laws.
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AL, PK, CKV, and VVR designed the study; AL, VJ, and CKV collected the data; AL conducted the analyses with support from PK; AL drafted the manuscript with comments from all authors; all authors reviewed and edited the manuscript.
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Lele, A., Arasumani, M., Vishnudas, C.K. et al. Ecological niche modelling reveals an elevated threat status for the Nilgiri Pipit (Anthus nilghiriensis). J Ornithol 165, 415–427 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-023-02133-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-023-02133-0