Study area
Field work was carried out in a mountainous forest dominated by Beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Lower Austria (48° 03′ N, 15° 55′ E) in the year 2015. The study was conducted on a Great Tit population breeding in wooden next boxes, which were evenly distributed along an altitudinal gradient (515–867 m above sea level). We inspected nest boxes every 4–6 days (starting in the end of March) to determine date of clutch initiation. Since Great Tits usually lay one egg per day (Perrins 1965), we could calculate date of clutch initiation for each nest.
Obtaining regional weather parameters
To get an overview of weather conditions and diurnal cycles, data on regional ambient temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm/h) were obtained from a weather station located within the study site (Office of the Provincial Government of Lower Austria, Hydrology and Geoinformation, official webpage: www.noe.gv.at, temporal resolution: every 15 min). During the study period, regional ambient temperature measured at the meteorological station varied between 2.2 and 22.5 °C. Regional ambient temperature was lowest in the early morning at dawn, rose until noon and reached the maximum in the early afternoon (see Fig. 1a). However, for our statistical analyses, ambient temperature was measured in a finer resolution on each nest box (see below). Regional precipitation varied between 0 and 14.1 mm/h. Morning rain was less frequent than afternoon rain (see Fig. 1b; Yaqub et al. 2010). For analyses, regional precipitation data were used from the local weather station (see Table 1).
Table 1 Descriptive statistics of weather variables measured between civil dawn and dusk (mean, standard error SE, range) Breeding data collection
After egg detection, nest boxes were checked daily to determine clutch sizes. After clutches were completed, we measured length and width of each egg to the nearest 0.1 mm to calculate total egg volume of each clutch (Tatum 1975), since clutch volume affects cooling rates (Reid et al. 2000). To limit the risk of nest desertion, we trapped females only during the nestling period. Females were individually ringed and aged, and body mass was measured (to the nearest 0.1 g). Mean ± standard deviation (SD) is shown where appropriate.
Assessing incubation behavior
To study incubation behavior, we installed iButton data loggers (DS1922L, Maxim Integrated, San Jose, USA) in 34 nest boxes to record temperature. Previous studies verified temperature measurements using camera recordings by showing that off-bouts correlate with female nest attendance (Joyce et al. 2001; Amininasab et al. 2016; Bueno-Enciso et al. 2017). Data loggers were inserted during the egg-laying period, when 7-10 eggs were already laid. At the moment of logger insertion, eggs were still cold, thereby indicating that incubation had not started yet. We fixed loggers using wire to avoid females removing them (see Electronic Supplementary Material). Temperature loggers were placed underneath the eggs within the nest lining layer, because our preliminary studies had shown that eggs can break during the incubation period, if loggers are placed among them. Therefore, we have not measured exact incubation temperature, but we can analyze female incubation as a pattern resulting from the temperature in the nest that varies due to female activity, either sitting on the clutch or not (on- and off-bout). To avoid replacing or interrupting measurement loggers and disturbing females during incubation, we inserted three loggers at a time. These loggers were programmed to record temperature at staggered intervals. Every logger measured temperature for five consecutive days, in total covering a maximum duration of 15 days. Temperature in the nest cup was recorded every 60 s to the nearest 0.5 °C.
After 15 days, we removed the loggers and analyzed temperature data. We used a file converter software program (Rhythm, see Cooper and Mills 2005) which pre-selected off-bouts, based on the following criteria: off-bouts were categorized as a minimum temperature drop of at least 1.5 °C for a minimum duration of 3 min. We assume that our temperature measurements every 60 s and the preliminary settings to detect off-bouts are accurate to study incubation behavior, since average off-bout duration of Great Tits breeding in Europe lasts between 7 and 12 min (see review table of Álvarez and Barba 2014c). Temperature profiles and off-bouts were confirmed visually using the software Raven, a product of the Bioacoustics Research Program at Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. We were aware that incubation might have begun prior to clutch completion (Cresswell and McCleery 2003; Stenning 2008; Álvarez and Barba 2014b; Simmonds et al. 2017), but we had to standardize the data before analyses. Thus, we defined the onset of incubation as the first day after the last egg was laid (clutch completion, see also Kluijver 1950).
From the 34 nests with temperature loggers placed and retrieved, three nests were removed from analyses because they were abandoned; three nests were removed because they were predated during incubation; and a further 15 nests were removed because loggers were deeply buried inside the nesting material and did not measure temperature adequately. We therefore analyzed data from the remaining 13 nests. Since loggers were inserted during the egg-laying period and before incubation had begun, the number of days with recorded temperature profiles during the incubation period varied for each of the 13 nests. Therefore, temperature measurements did not cover the whole incubation period of Great Tits, which usually lasts for 12–15 days (Glutz von Blotzheim and Bauer 1993). Instead, incubation behavior was analyzed within the first 8 days of incubation after clutches were completed in our study site [between day 1 and day 8: 8 nests, between day 1 and day 7: 3 nests, between day 2 and day 8: 2 nests, N (total) = 99 days].
On each nest box, ambient temperature was measured (accuracy: 0.5 °C) to link local ambient temperature to incubation temperature profiles (hereinafter “local ambient temperature”). Temperature loggers were fixed underneath nest boxes using a mesh to avoid direct solar irradiation at any daytime. Great Tits usually use the time period between sunrise and sunset for daily activities (Kluijver 1950); thus, we analyzed only off-bouts between civil dawn (04:33–05:09) and civil dusk (20:34–21:08) between 26 April 2015 and 18 May 2015 (see Table 1). Day length varied in our study period between 15 h 25 min (26 April) and 16 h 35 min (18 May).
Statistical analyses
We performed preliminary tests to study if incubation behavior differs during the 8 days of incubation using a non-parametric Kruskal–Wallis test. To understand the relationship between weather conditions and female incubation behavior (number of off-bouts per day, N = 99 days), we ran a generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMM). Before analyzing data, variables were tested for the assumption of normality and for multicollinearity. Since the spread in the response variable was large and indicated overdispersion, we fitted a negative binomial GLMM. We included daily average of local ambient temperature and sum of regional precipitation (calculated between civil dawn and dusk) and their interaction, day of incubation (incubation day 1–8) and total clutch volume as explanatory variables. Body mass of females correlated with total clutch volume (see results) and was, therefore, not included in the GLMM. In addition, clutch size was excluded from the analysis, because it highly correlated with clutch volume (see results). Nest box ID was used as random effect.
Then, we ran a binomial GLMM to assess the effect of weather conditions on the probability, that females either took an off-bout or stayed within the nest box (nest attendance N = 396). To account for diurnal changes in incubation behavior, four diurnal periods were considered: early morning (from civil dawn until 6:59), forenoon (from 7:00 until 11:59), afternoon (12:00–16:59) and evening (17:00 until civil dusk). We calculated average local ambient temperature and average amount of regional precipitation throughout the four diurnal periods, and included both parameters and their interaction in the GLMM. In addition, we used day of incubation, diurnal period of day and their interaction, and total clutch volume as explanatory variables. Nest box ID was used as random effect.
Finally, the duration of single off-bouts (N = 685 off-bouts) was analyzed. We used a gamma GLMM, because the dispersion factor was small, indicating that the spread in the data was large (Zuur et al. 2009). Again, data were not normally distributed, but spread in the response was large and indicated overdispersion. Average local ambient temperature during single off-bouts, time of day (minutes after civil dawn) and their interaction term, day of incubation (incubation day 1–8) and total clutch volume were included to analyze variation in the duration of single off-bouts. Again, nest box ID was used as random effect.
We independently generated for each of the three response variables (number of off-bouts, nest attendance, duration of off-bouts) a global model including all parameters and employed a multimodel inference approach (Burnham and Anderson 2002) to determine the most important variables. Therefore, we generated a set of models with all possible combinations of fixed effects [R package MuMIn, Bartoń (2018)] and graded models according to their Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Finally, a subset of models with ΔAICc of less than 2 was obtained and model-averaged coefficients for the subset were extracted. Since Akaike weights of best models were below 0.9 (see results, Table 2) and therefore high model selection uncertainty existed, full-model averaging was used (Grueber et al. 2011; Symonds and Moussalli 2011). Upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each parameter. Statistical analyses were conducted using the software R 3.4.1 (R Development Core Team 2008).
Table 2 Subset of generalized linear mixed effect models explaining variation in female incubation behavior in Great Tits (ΔAICc < 2) derived using the dredge function (Bartoń 2018)