Abstract
In this study, we addressed the effects of wind-induced drift on Lagrangian trajectories of surface sea objects using high-resolution ocean forecast and atmospheric data. Application of stochastic Leeway model for prediction of trajectories drift was considered for the numerical reconstruction of the Elba accident that occurred during the period 21.06.2009–22.06.2009: a person on an inflatable raft was lost in the vicinity of the Elba Island coast; from the initial position, the person on a raft drifted southwards in the open sea and later he was found on a partially deflated raft during rescue operation. For geophysical forcing, we used high-resolution currents from the Mediterranean Forecasting System and atmospheric wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. To investigate the effect of wind on trajectory behavior, numerical simulations were performed using different categories of drifter-like particles similar to a person on an inflatable raft. An algorithm of spatial clustering was used to differentiate the most probable search areas with a high density of particles. Our results showed that the simulation scenarios using particles with characteristics of draft-limited sea drifters provided better prediction of an observed trajectory in terms of the probability density of particles.
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Acknowledgments
E. S. is grateful to N. Pinardi and P. Oddo for the scientific guidance and helpful discussions. E. S. and Y. K. thank other colleagues from the Centro Mediterraneo per Gambiamenti Climatici for their kind support. The authors acknowledge support from the European Territorial Cooperation Programm “Ionian Integrated marine Observatory” and the project “Technology for Situational Sea Awareness” funded by National Operative Programm “Research and Competition”.
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Appendix
Appendix
The Leeway coefficients for the categories used in the experiments are provided here. The slope, offset, and std for the CWL, DWL are given in Table 1.
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Shchekinova, E.Y., Kumkar, Y. & Coppini, G. Numerical reconstruction of trajectory of small-size surface drifter in the Mediterranean sea. Ocean Dynamics 66, 153–161 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0916-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0916-9