Abstract
Increasing non-farming use of cropland (NFUC) in China faces significant sustainability challenges due to insufficient understandings of future spatiotemporal variations, exacerbated by inconsistent land use (LU) projections. To address this issue comprehensively and accurately, we first propose an Ensembled strategy based on Majority Voting method to project LU from 2020 to 2100. This strategy integrated potential projections based on calibrated LU demands from the System Dynamics model, the Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset, and the Global Change Analysis Model, respectively. Each potential projection was generated by the Future Land Use Simulation model, adopting the latest integrated scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCPs). The final LU projections were then analyzed to discern spatiotemporal variations of NFUC characteristics across China mainland. Generally, the temporal analysis shows that the cropland area is projected to increase by 51,088 km2 under SSP126, while decreased by 113,642 km2 and 48,699 km2 under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Primarily driven by the occupations of forestland (predominant), grassland, and construction land, the NFUC area shows a fluctuating uptrend under SSP126, whereas a continuous uptrend under SSP245 and SSP585. Spatial analysts show that the gravity center of NFUC under all three scenarios shifts to the southwest, indicating worrying cropland loss and NFUC in the western and southern China. Nevertheless, certain regions in the central and northern China show significant increasing cropland, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang province, and Inner Mongolia. These comprehensive insights into future NFUC underscore the urgency of implementing proactive measures.
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This work was supported by the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province of China (2020JQ-592).
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Peijun Sun and Linna Linghu conceived the idea and designed the study. Linna Linghu prepared the data and ran the model. Linna Linghu and Meng Zhang performed the analyses. Peijun Sun and Linna Linghu performed the analysis and drafted the manuscript. Meng Zhang, Zhangli Sun, and Yue Wu provide advices throughout the model performance. Peijun Sun critically revised the manuscript. Peijun Sun and Linna Linghu contributed equally to the manuscript. All authors reviewed submitted version of manuscript.
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Linghu, L., Sun, P., Zhang, M. et al. Spatiotemporal variations of non-farming use of cropland in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios. Reg Environ Change 24, 63 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02219-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02219-2