Abstract
The literature that examines the nexus of climate risk and armed conflict tends to be based on quantitative datasets and focuses on the causal relationship between the two issues. A limited number of studies consider the human dimensions of this nexus, but this literature has not been the subject of a synthesis. This article reviews the research examining the climate risk and armed conflict nexus, with specific emphasis on field studies and qualitative research. It aims to synthesize key findings emerging from the literature in order to shed light on the human dimensions of this nexus. Our analysis focuses on two broad themes: exposure and response. Exposure varies according to regional particularities and across locations while gender and weak political institutions are significant determinants in further increasing vulnerability. Response to the experience of the climate risk and armed conflict nexus consists primarily of various forms of migration. We also draw attention to specific directions for future research efforts to better understand the human dimensions of the climate-conflict nexus. This includes methodological considerations, attention to the anticipated aggravation of geopolitical realities through climate risk, and the identification of countries having a high climate risk index, and which are experiencing ongoing armed conflict.
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Notes
Commonly seen in the literature is the usage of the term “insurgency groups” to explain specific forms of armed conflict. According to Encyclopedia Britannica, insurgency is a “term historically restricted to rebellious acts that did not reach the proportions of an organized revolution. It has subsequently been applied to any such armed uprising, typically guerrilla in character, against the recognized government of a state or country.” Groups labeled as insurgency groups generally have three components: political mobilization, guerrilla warfare, and the use of terrorism. Examples of insurgency groups discussed in the literature include but are not limited to Boko Haram, the Taliban, and ISIS.
While Nett and Rüttinger (2016) concur with Gleick’s assertion and argue that water scarcity directly led to the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, others caution that social unrest in the Middle East is multidimensional and not only the result of climate risk, but also of a combination of other socio-economic and political factors (Feitelson and Tubi 2017; Selby et al. 2017).
The breakdown by region follows the United Nations geoscheme systemFootnote 5.
The Global Climate Risk Index has no information for Somalia and Syria.
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Communicated by James D. Ford.
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Augsten, L., Gagné, K. & Su, Y. The human dimensions of the climate risk and armed conflict nexus: a review article. Reg Environ Change 22, 42 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01888-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01888-1