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Water supply and water allocation strategy in the arid US West: evidence from the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer

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Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of water supply variations on micro-level agricultural irrigation under institutional water constraints and projects the irrigation percentage and farm income under future climate scenarios. We use a highly detailed data sample of irrigation status, water rights, water supply, and agricultural land use from Idaho’s Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer area. Results indicate that a 1-unit increase in irrigation percentage leads to ~US$12 ha−1 increase in crop revenue. Compared to crop revenue, micro-level irrigation percentage is more prone to changes under long-term water stress. The modest changes in climate, water supply, and crop prices can lead to the change in irrigation percentage by −86 to 53 units and correspondingly in average crop revenue by −52 to 48 % in Idaho’s most productive region. Seasonal water supply variations only have limited impact on the productivity of the irrigated agricultural sector as a whole. We postulate that average irrigation percentage and farm income will, in effect, increase under Idaho’s institutional water governance in the long run, when junior farmers stop irrigated agriculture practices due to persistent water shortage.

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Acknowledgments

Li received financial support for this study from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS).  The authors wish to thank Dr.’s Wolfgang Cramer, Erika Coppola, and anonymous reviewers of this Journal for their constructive comments and suggestions.  The authors own great thanks to Dr.’s Richard M. Adams and Scott E. Lowe: Dr. Adams contributed substantially to the initial drafting of this article and deserves authorship on this article.  Dr. Lowe received a grant from the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and by the National Science Foundation [Grant No. EPS-0814387] and worked with Xu to lay the foundation of a series of research including this one.  Thanks are also due to Remington Buyer, Michael Ciscell, Ron Abramovich, David Hoekema, Sue Ellis, Jeff Anderson, Dr. Richard G. Allen, Peter Cooper, Shelley Keen, Dr. Don W. Morishita, Dr. Howard Neibling, Tony Olenichak, and other staff from Boise State University, the Idaho Department of Water Resources, the USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Snow Survey, the University of Idaho, and Idaho National Laboratory (INL).  Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the individuals or agencies list above.

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  1. Department of Economics, School of Economics and WISE, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

    Wenchao Xu

  2. Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., USA

    Man Li

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  1. Wenchao Xu
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Xu, W., Li, M. Water supply and water allocation strategy in the arid US West: evidence from the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer. Reg Environ Change 16, 893–906 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0806-1

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