Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai, China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Geographical Systems Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study proposes a cellular automata-based Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial land use in Shanghai, China. In the proposed model, land development activities in a city are delineated as competitions among different land-use types. The Hedonic Land Pricing Model is adopted to implement the competition framework. To improve simulation results, the Land Price Agglomeration Model was devised to simulate and adjust classic land price theory. A new evolutionary algorithm-based parameter estimation method was devised in place of traditional methods. Simulation results show that the proposed model closely resembles actual land transformation patterns and the model can not only simulate land development, but also redevelopment processes in metropolitan areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Data source: Shanghai Urban Planning and Land Resource Administration Bureau

Fig. 2

Data source: Shanghai Urban Planning and Land Resource Administration Bureau

Fig. 3

Data source: Shanghai Urban Planning and Land Resource Administration Bureau

Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alonso W (1964) Location and land use: toward a general theory of land rent. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Al-shalabi M, Billa L, Pradhan B, Mansor S, Al-Sharif AA (2012) Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: the case of Sana’a metropolitan city, Yemen. Environ Earth Sci 70(1):425–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anas A, Arnott R, Small KA (1998) Urban spatial structure. J Econ Lit 36(3):1426–1464

    Google Scholar 

  • Batty M (1998) Urban evolution on the desktop: simulation with the use of extended cellular automata. Environ Plan A 30(11):1943–1967

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Batty M, Hudson-Smith A (2005) Urban simulacra: London. Arch Des 75(6):42–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Batty M, Couclelis H, Eichen M (1997) Urban systems as cellular automata. Environ Plan B Plan Des 24(2):159–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berry BJ (1964) Cities as systems within systems of cities. Pap Reg Sci 13(1):147–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bodenmann B, Axhausen K (2010) Synthesis report on the state of the art on firmographics. Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH, Zurich

    Google Scholar 

  • Boschma RA, Frenken K (2006) Applications of evolutionary economic geography. In: Frenken K (ed) Applied evolutionary economics and economic geography. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham

    Google Scholar 

  • Boschma RA, Wenting R (2007) The spatial evolution of the British automobile industry: does location matter? Ind Corp Change 16(2):213–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brueckner JK (2011) Lectures on urban economics. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Cervero R, Landis J (1993) Assessing the impacts of urban rail transit on local real estate markets using quasi-experimental comparisons. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 27(1):13–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christodoulou A (2010) STUDI: a model to simulate the impacts of new metro lines on urban development in London. Doctoral dissertation, University College London

  • Clark WA, Burt JE (1980) The impact of workplace on residential relocation. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 70(1):59–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Couclelis H (2001) Why I no longer work with agents. Paper presented at the special workshop on agent-based models of land-use, land-cover change, CSISS, Irvine. www.csiss.org/events/other/agent-based/papers/couclelis.pdf

  • De Bok M, Sanders F (2005) Firm relocation and accessibility of locations empirical results from the Netherlands. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 1902:35–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Bok M, van Oort F (2011) Agglomeration economies, accessibility and the spatial choice behavior of relocating firms. J Transp Land Use 4(1):5–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Espey M, Lopez H (2000) The impact of airport noise and proximity on residential property values. Growth Change 31(3):408–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan J, Li P (2009) The scientific foundation of major function oriented zoning in China. J Geogr Sci 19(5):515–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer MM, Nijkamp P (2012) Spatial dynamics of European integration: regional and policy issues at the turn of the century. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Fujita M, Thisse J-F (2013) Economics of agglomeration: cities, industrial location, and globalization. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Garreau J (2011) Edge city: life on the new frontier. Anchor, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey J, Jowsey E (2004) Urban land economics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Henderson V, Mitra A (1996) The new urban landscape: developers and edge cities. Reg Sci Urban Econ 26(6):613–643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henley A (1994) Industrial deconcentration in UK manufacturing since 1980. Manch Sch 62(1):40–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hilferink M, Rietveld P (1999) Land Use Scanner: an integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas. J Geogr Syst 1(2):155–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hudalah D, Viantari D, Firman T, Woltjer J (2013) Industrial land development and manufacturing deconcentration in Greater Jakarta. Urban Geogr 34(7):950–971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irwin EG, Bockstael NE (2002) Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns. J Econ Geogr 2(1):31–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irwin EG, Bockstael NE (2004) Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl. Reg Sci Urban Econ 34(6):705–725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lefcoe G (2005) Regulation of superstores: the legality of zoning ordinances emerging from the skirmishes between wal-mart and the united food and commercial workers union. Ark Law Rev 58:833

    Google Scholar 

  • Levy S, Martens K, Heijden R (2011) An agent-based model of transport and land use policy coordination between municipalities. Paper presented at the Proc. Bijdrage aan Het Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk, Antwerpen (November 2011)

  • Lin GC (2009) Developing China: land, politics and social conditions. Routledge, Abingdon

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo J, Wei YD (2004) A geostatistical modeling of urban land values in Milwauke, Wisconsine. Geogr Inf Sci 10(1):49–57

    Google Scholar 

  • Marton AM, Wu W (2006) Spaces of globalisation: institutional reforms and spatial economic development in the Pudong new area, Shanghai. Habitat Int 30(2):213–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mieszkowski P, Mills E (1993) The causes of metropolitan suburbanization. J Econ Perspect 7(3):135–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moreno N, Menard A, Marceau DJ (2008) VecGCA: a vector-based geographic cellular automata model allowing geometric transformations of objects. Environ Plan 35(4):647–665

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nadiri MI, Mamuneas TP (1996) Contribution of highway capital to industry and national productivity growth. Federal Highway Administration Washington, DC, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Nanda A, Yeh J-H (2014) Spatio-temporal diffusion of residential land prices across Taipei regions. SpringerPlus 3(1):1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ning Y, Yan Z (1995) The changing industrial and spatial structure in Shanghai. Urban Geogr 16(7):577–594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker DC, Manson SM, Janssen MA, Hoffmann MJ, Deadman P (2003) Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93(2):314–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pellenbarg PH, Van Wissen LJ, Van Dijk J (2002) Firm relocation: state of the art and research prospects. University of Groningen, Groningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng R, Wheaton WC (1994) Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong: an econometric analysis. J Hous Res 5(2):263

    Google Scholar 

  • Qiu R, Xu W (2017) Modes of land development in Shanghai. Land Use Policy 61:475–486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qiu R, Xu W, Zhang J (2015) The transformation of urban industrial land use: a quantitative method. J Urban Manag 4(1):40–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raymond Y (1998) Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales. Urban Stud 35(8):1377–1392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose LA (1989) Urban land supply: natural and contrived restrictions. J Urban Econ 25(3):325–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenthal SS, Strange WC (2003) Geography, industrial organization, and agglomeration. Rev Econ Stat 85(2):377–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schotten K, Goetgeluk R, Hilferink M, Rietveld P, Scholten H (2001) Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for the Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model. Environ Model Assess 6(2):133–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taleai M, Sharifi A, Sliuzas R, Mesgari M (2007) Evaluating the compatibility of multi-functional and intensive urban land uses. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 9(4):375–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teye A, Ahelegbey D (2016) Detecting spatial and temporal house price diffusion in the Netherlands: a Bayesian network approach. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2710081

  • Thiele JC, Kurth W, Grimm V (2012) RNETLOGO: an R package for running and exploring individual-based models implemented in NETLOGO. Methods Ecol Evol 3(3):480–483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Viehe FW (1981) Black gold suburbs the influence of the extractive industry on the suburbanization of Los Angeles, 1890–1930. J Urban Hist 8(1):3–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker R (2001) Industry builds the city: the suburbanization of manufacturing in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1850–1940. J Hist Geogr 27(1):36–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weber A, Friedrich CJ (1962) Theory of the location of industries. University of Chicago Press Chicago, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • White R, Engelen G (1993) Cellular automata and fractal urban form: a cellular modelling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns. Environ Plan A 25:1175–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White R, Uljee I, Engelen G (2012) Integrated modelling of population, employment and land-use change with a multiple activity-based variable grid cellular automaton. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 26(7):1251–1280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilensky U (1999) NetLogo. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/

  • Willis KG, Garrod G, Harvey D (1998) A review of cost–benefit analysis as applied to the evaluation of new road proposals in the UK. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ 3(3):141–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu FL (1998) Simulating urban encroachment on rural land with fuzzy-logic-controlled cellular automata in a geographical information system. J Environ Manag 53(4):293–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu WP (2008) Migrant settlement and spatial distribution in metropolitan Shanghai. Prof Geogr 60(1):101–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu FL, Martin D (2002) Urban expansion simulation of Southeast England using population surface modelling and cellular automata. Environ Plan A 34(10):1855–1876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu W (2004) The changing dynamics of land-use change in rural China: a case study of Yuhang, Zhejiang Province. Environ Plan A 36(9):1595–1615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh AG, Wu FL (1996) The new land development process and urban development in Chinese cities. Int J Urban Reg Res 20(2):330–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Y (2000) In situ urbanization in rural China: case studies from Fujian Province. Dev Change 31(2):413–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the Ministry of Education of China (Grant 11JJDZH006), the Ford Foundation (0155-0883), and Globalink Research Award of Mitacs. The research was also supported by NSERC CREATE AMETHYST Program at the University of Lethbridge and the Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar JZ2014006) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning. We appreciate greatly the constructive comments and suggestions from anonymous reviewers.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive, Lethbridge, AB, T1K 3M4, Canada

    Rongxu Qiu, Wei Xu & Karl Staenz

  2. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive, Lethbridge, AB, T1K 3M4, Canada

    John Zhang

Authors
  1. Rongxu Qiu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wei Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. John Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Karl Staenz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rongxu Qiu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Qiu, R., Xu, W., Zhang, J. et al. Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai, China. J Geogr Syst 20, 57–83 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-017-0258-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-017-0258-x

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation