LAND USE SCANNER: An integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas

Abstract.

This paper describes the structure of the LAND USE SCANNER model, a GIS based model developed to generate spatial forecasts for various types of land use for a large number of grids. The model basically allocates land according to bid prices for various types of land use. The possibility of government intervention in land use is taken into account among others by adding aggregate constraints. The model includes all relevant land use types such as residential, industrial, agricultural, natural areas and water. The model is driven by sectoral models providing forecasts of aggregate land use in various land use categories. An application of the first version of the model is given for the Netherlands with some 200,000 grid cells. Further developments and refinements of the model are planned for the near future.