Abstract
Previous studies suggest that Programs to Control Vehicular Emission (PCVE) restrictions have succeeded in improving air quality. However, evidence about PCVE’s long-term effects in developing countries in the Southern Hemisphere is still lacking. We analyzed the influence of PCVE restrictions on PM2.5 changes under vehicular fleet growth scenarios in Brazil. Our results show an increase in PM2.5 concentrations (up to 14%) aligned with an intensive increase (more than 70%) in the vehicular fleet between 2001 and 2010. During this period, we detected a similar pattern in more than 50% of urban spots in the South-East and other large urban centers in the South and Mid-West regions. Between 2011 and 2020, the stabilization or reduction of PM2.5 is associated with a fleet growth smoothing combined with the continuous restrictions of PCVE. This work highlights the importance of planning and limiting fleet growth beyond vehicular technological improvement and emission factor restrictions.
Graphical abstract
Trends and drivers of PM2.5 surface concentrations in Brazil.
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Data availability
We used PM2.5 surface concentrations data provided by Van Donkelaar et al. (2021) [https://sites.wustl.edu/acag/datasets/surface-pm2-5/]; emission rates data provided by Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) (EDGAR 2023) [https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php/dataset_ap61]; meteorology data provided by Funk et al. (2015) [https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201566] and McNally (2018) [https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/FLDAS_NOAH01_C_GL_M_001/summary]; vehicle fleet data provided by Brazilian National Secretary of Transit (SENATRAN 2023) [https://www.gov.br/transportes/pt-br/assuntos/transito/conteudo-Senatran/estatisticas-frota-de-veiculos-senatran]; and emission factors implemented by Brazilian PCVE (Transport Policy 2023) [https://www.transportpolicy.net/region/south-america/brazil/]. The geometries of Brazilian cities are provided by GADM [https://gadm.org/data.html].
Code availability
Available by request.
References
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Funding
This work was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e Inovação de Santa Catarina—FAPESC (Project 2018TR499) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES) (Finance Code 001).
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CBR and LH contributed to the study conceptualization. Data collection and analysis were performed by CBR. The first draft and revised manuscript were written by CBR and LH.
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Ribeiro, C.B., Hoinaski, L. PM2.5 decadal changes in Brazil: influence of vehicular fleet growth and policy to control vehicular emissions. Clean Techn Environ Policy (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02805-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02805-2