Abstract
Earthquakes can generate large amounts of co-seismic landslide debris and unstable hillslopes, which supply abundant material sources for subsequent debris flow activities, leading to a significant increase in debris flow risk in post-seismic years. On 5 September 2022, a Mw 6.8 earthquake struck Luding County in the mountainous region of Southwestern China. To mitigate the risk of post-earthquake debris flows to infrastructure and reconstruction planning efforts in the earthquake-affected area, it is crucial to determine the location and magnitude of post-earthquake debris flow. Based on the dataset of debris flow activities for more than 10 years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, we captured the dominant factors controlling the post-earthquake debris flow activity and developed a predictive model for the post-earthquake debris flow activity by multiple machine learning methods. Subsequently, we used the predictive model and transfer learning method to identify high-susceptibility areas for debris flows following the 2022 Luding earthquake. A volume indicator of transportable material sources (PVL) by coupling with the connectivity and the co-seismic landslide was proposed to further quantify the magnitude of debris flows. The results indicate that approximately 70% of the catchments in the Luding earthquake-affected area would remain at a slight or low debris flow activity level, while the catchments with high and very high activity are mainly located in the Moxi-Xinmin section. Overall, this research provides valuable insights for mitigating the risk of post-earthquake debris flow and developing effective strategies for reconstruction efforts.
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Acknowledgements
The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U21A2032, 42077245), the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Independent Research Project (SKLGP2023Z027), and the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province (2024NSFSC0783). The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions to improve the paper.
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Chen, M., Chang, M., Xu, Q. et al. Identifying potential debris flow hazards after the 2022 Mw 6.8 Luding earthquake in southwestern China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 83, 241 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03749-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03749-z