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A new early warning criterion for landslides movement assessment: Deformation Standardized Anomaly Index

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Abstract

Numerous engineering case studies suggest that the complexity and oscillatory of landslide displacement types, influenced by diverse deformation patterns, monitoring errors, and varied observation time frames, present challenges for the application of traditional warning criteria in assessing landslide movement in practice. As such, this study attempts to propose a data-dependent early warning criterion through the dimensionless analysis of displacement for two typical landslide displacement patterns: exponential pattern and step-like pattern. The displacement trend in exponential pattern landslides is extracted using the simple moving average (SMA) method, with the onset of acceleration (OOA) determined through the application of the Pettitt test. The Deformation Standardized Anomaly Index (DSAI) is defined to quantitatively evaluate the alert levels corresponding to each monitored displacement data of both patterns. After validating the proposed criterion in ten landslide cases, results indicate that the landslides have a high probability of losing stability when DSAI exceeds four, and the landslide tends to stabilize as DSAI decreases. Compared to displacement speed ratio (DSR), the proposed DSAI is more applicable, aligning with the actual conditions of both landslides with exponential pattern and step-like pattern and exhibiting a relatively low false alarm rate, making it a valuable criterion for landslide early warning.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 42207212, the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42090055), the Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China (Grant No. 2021M703002), Science and Technology Program of Tibet Autonomous Region (XZ202202YD0007C, XZ202301YD0034C), National Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China (2023AFB933), and the Open Fund of Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards (No. BNORSG-202314).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Junrong Zhang & Huiming Tang

  2. Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards (BNORSG), China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Junrong Zhang, Huiming Tang, Biying Zhou & Shu Zhang

  3. School of Geosciences, Yangtze University, Wuhan, 430100, Hubei, China

    Tao Wen

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  1. Junrong Zhang
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  2. Huiming Tang
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  3. Biying Zhou
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  4. Tao Wen
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  5. Shu Zhang
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Contributions

Junrong Zhang: methodology, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing. Biying Zhou: software, visualization. HuimingTang: funding acquisition, supervision. Tao Wen: visualization. Shu Zhang: visualization.

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Correspondence to Huiming Tang.

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Zhang, J., Tang, H., Zhou, B. et al. A new early warning criterion for landslides movement assessment: Deformation Standardized Anomaly Index. Bull Eng Geol Environ 83, 205 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-024-03672-3

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