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Co-seismic landslide hazard assessment of the 2017 Ms 6.9 Milin earthquake, Tibet, China, combining the logistic regression–information value and Newmark displacement models

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Abstract

On November 18, 2017, an Ms 6.9 earthquake struck Milin County, Linzhi City, Tibet, China, triggering a large number of co-seismic landslides. The epicenter was located at the end of the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, an area with rapid uplift and strong tectonic rotation deformation. As co-seismic landslides are one of the most important hazard phenomena in hilly and seismically active mountainous regions, it is essential to accurately map the potentially hazardous areas. This study presents a novel model combining the logistic regression–information value (LRIV) and Newmark displacement model for landslide hazard assessment, following regional-scale mapping and occurrence probability evaluation in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis region. The combined LRIV–Newmark displacement model can comprehensively consider the geological and environmental factors of co-seismic landslides, including the mechanical landslide mechanism, local topography (slope aspect, elevation, and topographic relief), distance to main rivers, and difference between the hanging and foot walls of seismogenic faults. Based on the factor multicollinearity and the significance test, there was no multicollinearity among the six conditioning factors, and all factors significantly influenced the occurrence of co-seismic landslides. The results showed good model performance in the study area, with an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve of 0.955, which is a significant improvement over that of the Newmark displacement model alone. The combined model could facilitate co-seismic landslide disaster reduction and prevention in steep and mountainous regions.

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Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41941017, 41807231, 41731287 and 42277166).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Urban Geology and Engineering, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China

    Guoliang Du, Ling Zou & Ying Yuan

  2. Key Laboratory of Intelligent Detection and Equipment for Underground Space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China

    Guoliang Du

  3. Hebei Center for Ecological and Environmental Geology Research, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China

    Guoliang Du, Ling Zou & Ying Yuan

  4. Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050061, China

    Yongshuang Zhang & Sanshao Ren

  5. Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Intelligent Development and Control of Underground Built Environment, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China

    Ling Zou & Ying Yuan

  6. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Zhihua Yang

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  1. Guoliang Du
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Du, G., Zhang, Y., Zou, L. et al. Co-seismic landslide hazard assessment of the 2017 Ms 6.9 Milin earthquake, Tibet, China, combining the logistic regression–information value and Newmark displacement models. Bull Eng Geol Environ 81, 446 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-022-02901-x

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