Abstract
It is shown that temporal variation in hydrochemistry may be attributed, in part, to continuous seismotectonic activity occurring before the onset of the 1995 “Kobe” earthquake, Japan, challenging the “one earthquake–one signal” hypothesis with respect to potential precursory signals to this devastating event. A possible continuous seismotectonic influence on chloride and sulphate ion-concentration is evaluated with aggregate earthquake-information by transforming a multivariate earthquake time series (including coordinates and magnitude) into a one-dimensional time series (considering geometric relationships between earthquakes and the well-site). A piecewise analysis of ion-concentration and seismotectonic-activity time series compares trends and change points between the two time series: a positive correlation (before the proposed onset of the preparation stage) is followed by a negative correlation (during the proposed preparation stage) which, in turn, is succeeded by a positive correlation (after the heaviest aftershock sequences). This suggests that seismotectonic processes occurring before the Kobe earthquake dynamically influenced aquifer characteristics, leading to temporal variations in the hydrochemical time series. Accordingly, a dynamic change in the mixing ratios of waters with different hydrochemical characteristics is proposed as a mechanism for explaining observed variation. The research can be extended by considering vectors in the stress field that lead to changes in the aquifer-well system.
Résumé
D’après les observations, des fluctuations hydrochimiques temporaires peuvent être partiellement imputées à une activité sismotectonique permanente précédant le début du train d’ondes du séisme de Kobe (Japon) en 1995. Ceci remet en cause l’hypothèse “un séisme – un signal”, concernant les signaux précurseurs potentiels de cet événement dévastateur. Une potentielle influence sismotectonique continue sur les concentrations en ions chlorure et sulfate est estimée par recoupement des informations sismiques, en transformant les séries temporelles multivariables (incluant les coordonnées et la magnitude) en une série temporelle unidimensionnelle (en prenant en compte les relations géométriques entre les séismes et l’emplacement du puits). Une analyse par morceaux des séries temporelles des compositions ioniques et de l’activité sismique compare les tendances et les points d’inflexion entre les deux séries : une corrélation positive (précédant l’amorce des précurseurs) est suivie d’une corrélation négative (synchrone des précurseurs), précédant elle-même au final une corrélation positive (après les répliques les plus intenses). Ceci suggère que les processus sismotectoniques précédant le séisme de Kobe ont influencé dynamiquement les caractéristiques de l’aquifère, causant des variations dans les séries hydrochimiques temporelles. Suivant le même raisonnement, un mécanisme proposé pour expliquer les variations observées implique un changement dynamique dans les proportions de mélange des eaux selon les différents paramètres hydrochimiques. La recherche peut être étendue en prenant en compte les vecteurs du champ de contraintes qui génèrent les changements dans le système puits-aquifère.
Resumen
Se muestra que la variación temporal en hidroquímica puede atribuirse en parte a la continua actividad sismotectónica que ocurrió antes del inicio del terremoto de 1995 en Kobe, Japón, lo que desafía la hipótesis “un terremoto-una señal” en relación con las señales precursoras potenciales para este evento devastador. Se evalúa una posible influencia sismotectónica continua en la composición de la concentración de iones sulfato y cloruro con información agregada de terremotos mediante la transformación de series de tiempo multivariables de terremotos (incluyendo coordenadas y magnitud) a series de tiempo en una dimensión (considerando relaciones geométricas entre terremotos y el sitio del pozo). Un análisis por partes de las concentraciones de iones y series de tiempo de actividad sismotectónica compara tendencias y puntos de cambio entre las dos series de tiempo: una correlación positiva (antes del inicio propuesto de la etapa de preparación) es seguido por una correlación negativa (durante la etapa de preparación propuesta) la cual, a su vez, es continuada por una correlación positiva (después de las fuertes secuencias de réplicas). Esto sugiere que los procesos sismotectónicos que ocurrieron antes del terremoto de Kobe influyeron dinámicamente en las características de los acuíferos, ocasionando variaciones temporales en las series de tiempo hidroquímicas. Por lo tanto, se propone que un cambio dinámico en las relaciones de mezcla de las aguas con las diferentes características hidroquímicas es un mecanismo que explica la variación observada. La investigación puede extenderse tomando en consideración los vectores del campo de esfuerzos que pueden conducir a cambios en el sistema pozo-acuífero.
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Acknowledgements
This work was partly financed by the German Science Foundation (DFG) within the framework of the post-graduate programme “Natural Disasters” and the Japanese Society for Promotion of Science within the framework of the 21st Century Center of Excellence Program. The authors are thankful for the constructive comments of the reviewers and the editors.
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The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan.
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Hartmann, J., Levy, J.K. The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan. Hydrogeol J 14, 1307–1318 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-006-0030-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-006-0030-7