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Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem

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Abstract

In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated.

This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoye sh. 79 k. 2, 113556, Moscow, Russian

    G. M. Molchan

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  1. G. M. Molchan
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Molchan, G.M. Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem. PAGEOPH 149, 233–247 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00945169

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